The Denver Nuggets battle the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of their 2025 NBA Western Conference semifinal matchup on Tuesday. OKC evened the series at 2-2 with a 92-87 win on Sunday. The Nuggets (50-32), who finished second in the Northwest Division, are 26-20 on the road this season, including the 2025 NBA playoffs. The Thunder (68-14), the Northwest Division champions and top seed in the West, are 38-7 on their home court in 2024-25.
Tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. Oklahoma City has won six of the past nine postseason games it has played against Denver. The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 220.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Nuggets picks, check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Nuggets vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Nuggets:
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Oklahoma City -10.5 at DraftKings
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 220.5 points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder money line: Oklahoma City -481, Denver +366
- DEN: The Nuggets have hit the money line in 40 of their last 64 games (+13.65 units)
- OKC: The Thunder have covered the spread in 57 of their last 92 games (+22.90 units)
- Nuggets vs. Thunder picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Nuggets vs. Thunder streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Thunder can cover
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to dominate. In eight postseason starts, he is averaging 27.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.4 steals in 36.6 minutes. In Sunday’s win of the Nuggets, he poured in 25 points, while dishing out six assists and grabbing six rebounds. In Game 1 against Denver, he registered a near triple-double, scoring 33 points, while adding 10 rebounds, eight assists and two steals.
Forward Jalen Williams is one of four Thunder players averaging double-digit scoring, and one of two averaging at least 20. In eight playoff games, all starts, he is averaging 21 points, 5.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals in 34.6 minutes. In Friday’s 113-104 overtime loss in Game 3, he scored 32 points, while dishing out five assists and hauling down three boards in 43 minutes. He had 17 points, seven assists, four rebounds and two blocks in the 149-106 Game 2 win over the Nuggets. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver center Nikola Jokic is averaging a double-double in 11 postseason games. In 40.1 minutes of action, he is averaging 24.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 2.2 steals and one block. He had a monster effort in Game 1 of the series, pouring in 42 points, while grabbing 22 rebounds and dishing out six assists. He had 20 points and 16 rebounds with six assists in Game 3 on Friday.
Point guard Jamal Murray is one of six Nuggets who are averaging at least 10 points per game this postseason. In 11 playoff starts, he is averaging 21.7 points, 5.5 assists, five rebounds and 1.3 steals in 41.7 minutes. In the series opener, Murray scored 21 points, added six boards and six assists. He had 27 points, eight assists, four steals and four rebounds in the Game 3 overtime win. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Nuggets vs. Thunder picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Nuggets vs. Thunder 10,000 times and is leaning Under the total, projecting 216 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Thunder vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread cashes in nearly 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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