May 3, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) reacts with shortstop Mookie Betts (50) after hitting a home run against the Atlanta Braves during the third inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images Home runs pay the bills.
The long ball puts people in the seats, and homers always lead nightly highlight reels.
They’re big with prop bet aficionados and bettors, too, of course. With 26 home runs hit yesterday and 32 the day before, bettors have plenty of opportunities to cash in.
But we’re talking about 26 home runs across 15 games involving every MLB team. So, who should you bet on? Aaron Judge? Shohei Ohtani? I’ve got a few ideas (odds via FanDuel unless otherwise noted).
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar Henderson +520
Henderson hit a pair of home runs during Baltimore’s weekend series vs. the Angels. This is a home game, and Oriole Park at Camden Yards is tied with Tampa Bay’s home field as the most home run-friendly park in baseball this season (65).
With Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson giving up one home run in each of his last six starts — including his previous start vs. Baltimore (Ramon Laureano) — I like Henderson’s odds of hitting another one today.
Byron Buxton +330
Harrison Bader +700 (DraftKings)
Orioles starter Cade Povich has given up seven home runs this season, all within his last five starts, with five coming in two games — both at home. Buxton hit one off him last week when Baltimore was in Minneapolis (May 6). He got another the next day off Charlie Morton.
Since Povich seems to give them up in bunches at home, I see value in Bader’s odds of hitting a home run. He has just four on the season, but he’s hitting .455 and slugging .818 over the last week. I like his chances of making contact and sending one out against Povich.
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Diamondbacks at Giants
Corbin Carroll +520
Carroll homered twice off Justin Verlander last night and is one of the top home run hitters in baseball this season with 13. Robbie Ray has given up five so far this year, including a pair at Oracle Park.
However, there have been fewer home runs hit at Oracle (23) than at any other park this season. That’s not encouraging, but at +520, I like the value.
Heliot Ramos +680
Matt Chapman has hit one more than Ramos this season, but Ramos has hit four in the last 15 days and is much more likely to make contact — Ramos is hitting .415 to Chapman’s .229 over the same span.
Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has given up seven this season.
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Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani +235
Freddie Freeman +360
Ohtani and Freeman have been on a tear the last couple of weeks, hitting six and five home runs, respectively. Dodger Stadium has been somewhat home run-friendly this season, with 50 balls leaving the park so far.
Since A’s starter Jeffrey Springs has given up one home run in six of his last seven starts, I like the chances of one of these two Dodgers going deep tonight.
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