The 4-seed Denver Nuggets host the 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals on Sunday as the 2025 NBA playoffs roll on. The Nuggets defended home court, topping the Thunder 113-104 in an overtime bout in Game 3. They now own a 2-1 lead and have a chance to take real control of the series. During the regular season, these teams split the season series 2-2.
Tipoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET from the Ball Arena in Denver, where the home team went 26-15 in the regular season. OKC is a 6-point favorite in the latest Thunder vs. Nuggets odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under for total points scored is 227.5. Before locking in any Nuggets vs. Thunder picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, including a 3-0 mark in the playoffs, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Thunder vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Nuggets:
- Thunder vs. Nuggets spread: Oklahoma City -6 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Thunder vs. Nuggets over/under: 227.5 points
- Thunder vs. Nuggets money line: Oklahoma City -224, Denver +199
- OKC: Thunder are 56-30-4 against the spread this season
- DEN: Nuggets are 43-47-2 against the spread this season
- Thunder vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Thunder vs. Nuggets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Thunder can cover
The Thunder were one of the best teams in the league all season long. Oklahoma City is 23-15-2 ATS as the away favorite and 25-16-2 ATS as the visiting team. The most staggering stat for the Thunder is that they are 38-18-2 against the spread when they get the same amount of rest as the other team.
Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the No. 1 option for this group as both a scorer and playmaker. He ranks first on the team in scoring (28) and assists (6.7). The 26-year-old has poured in 30-plus points in four of his last five matchups. In Game 2, Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 34 points and eight dimes. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Nuggets can cover
The Nuggets head into this contest with a 15-12-1 ATS record as the underdog and 5-4-1 against the spread in the playoffs. In addition, Denver has covered the spread in five of its last seven games. Two of those wins came in this series when Denver was a 10-plus point underdog.
Center Nikola Jokic plays a big role in that due to his ability to put his fingerprints all over the game. In the 2025 NBA playoffs, Jokic leads the team in points (24.7), rebounds (12.7), assists (8.9), steals (2) and blocks (1.1). In his last outing, he totaled 20 points, 16 boards and six assists. This was his fifth double-double this postseason. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Thunder vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Thunder vs. Nuggets and is leaning Under the total, projecting 217 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread is the better value You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Thunder vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Nuggets spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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