2025 PGA Championship predictions, favorites: Ranking the top of the field from 1-25 at Quail Hollow

CHARLOTTE — The deepest field of the season converges in North Carolina this week for 107th playing of the PGA Championship. Welcoming 99 of the top 100 players in the world (an injured Billy Horschel being the exemption) along with past major champions and 20 PGA professionals, the PGA Championship has a way of producing everything from Cinderella stories to legends of the game all across just four rounds of golf.

With the most stout list of competitors planning to tee it up, the PGA Championship requires work to sift through the contenders and pretenders. A total of 156 players have an opportunity to raise the Wanamaker Trophy at the onset of the week, but realistically, that number may be closer to 25.

So, instead of attempting to pinpoint which PGA professional will be this year’s Michael Block (mind you, it may well be Block himself as he is in the field again), we will stick to the top end of potential winners. 

That list includes players who have proved victorious on this stage previously, those rounding into form looking to add another line to their playing résumés and those who may be being overlooked (for whatever reason).

Of the 156 players in this field, let’s take a look at those most likely to raise the Wanamaker Trophy as the week begins. CBS Sports has also taken a dive into trends that will determine the 2025 PGA Championship winner and broken down the entire PGA Championship odds board.

2025 PGA Championship field, ranked

1. Rory McIlroy (Won in 2012, 2014): The two-time champion is gaining nearly three strokes per round this season, and he has gained nearly three strokes per round at Quail Hollow throughout his career. The convergence of form, course fit and a renewed mental sharpness have McIlroy’s name atop this list as the weight of the career grand slam has been lifted from his shoulders. His carry distance with the driver is such an advantage at Quail Hollow given some of the requirements off the tee. 

2. Scottie Scheffler (T2 in 2023): His picture has been passed around the Charlotte Police Department, so any traffic stops should be smooth sailing and his bagman, Ted Scott, will be by his side all four rounds as well. He arrives off a win with plenty of confidence and game in tow following a record win in his backyard. So, why is Scheffler not the top man? Simply because he doesn’t have the same history at Quail Hollow as McIlroy. Scheffler is set to make the first stroke-play start of his career at this golf course this week. 

3. Bryson DeChambeau (2nd in 2024): He’s probably the best bet on the board in terms of price, form, history and course fit. DeChambeau arrives off a win in South Korea where he put together his best iron performance since raising the U.S. Open trophy at Pinehurst No. 2. That marked his fourth straight Sunday with a chance to win including the Masters where he had the solo lead early in the proceedings. He has four top-five finishes in his last five PGA Championships and will be able to bring Quail Hollow to its knees with his distance (and renewed accuracy) off the tee.  

4. Xander Schauffele (Won in 2024): Would have loved to see a better driving performance across the entire tournament at Philly Cricket Club, but he may have found something in the final round where he led the field in strokes gained off the tee. Schauffele comes to Charlotte with 12 straight major top 20s and five straight major top 10s. He’s the defending champion, finished runner up at this golf course the last two seasons on the PGA Tour and is flying under the radar.

5. Patrick Reed (T2 in 2017): It’s a lofty ranking, but where’s the fun in just going down the PGA Championship odds board and listing names in order? Reed has four top 10s in his last five worldwide starts, including a podium result at the Masters where he was frisky on the second nine on Sunday. A runner-up finisher in the 2017 PGA Championship at this venue, Reed will be able to rely not only on his short game but a significant improvement in the ball-striking categories.

6. Justin Thomas (Won in 2017, 2022): He could be higher up, and he probably should be higher up, but I still have my doubts. Thomas got off the schneid with his win at Harbour Town and followed it up with a nice run in Philadelphia. The winner here in 2017, the two-time champion returns to the venue in May instead of his August triumph. Thomas is currently having the best putting year of his career and the worst driving year of his career. Take that whatever way you like. 

7. Ludvig Åberg (MC in 2024): The Swedish superstar has made a run in three different major championships in just five starts making it clear his game can withstand this type of golf. His game may not be in tip-top shape at the moment, but his driving ability is capable of making up for any shortcomings. 

8. Jon Rahm (T4 in 2018): It’s been his worst major championship for one reason or another, but Rahm’s name always carries weight. The Spaniard has racked up 19 straight top-10 finishes on LIV Golf, battled to a top-15 result at the Masters and continues to drive the ball as well as ever. The kicker is that he is experiencing the worst iron season of his career (just about zero in terms of strokes gained).

9. Collin Morikawa (Won in 2020): Morikawa hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in a major since the 2023 Open as his consistent ball striking continues to give him such a high floor on these difficult tests. What his short game does will dictate his ceiling as he has bled strokes to the field in both those categories in every start since the Masters.

10. Sepp Straka (T7 in 2023): Iron play has been sensational all season long and has led to a couple of victories including last week in Philadelphia. Played well at a wet Oak Hill and finished top 10 at Quail Hollow last season, both of which should give him confidence. When he gains strokes putting, he is a lock to be in the mix.

11. Hideki Matsuyama (T4 in 2016): Matsuyama hasn’t missed a cut in a major championship since the 2019 Open, but it has been feast or famine in terms of quality results. The 2021 Masters winner has just two top 10s since slipping on the green jacket — both of which came at the U.S. Open — but this week should serve as a real chance to add to that total. What he does on the greens will determine his week as he continues to tinker with which putter to play.

12. Viktor Hovland (T2 in 2023): In and out of the mix at the Masters before settling for a T21 finish. This came on the heels of a win at the Valspar Championship where Hovland lamented his swing was only at a 6.5 out of 10 on the “Viktor Scale.” He has finished 3rd, T2 in the last two PGA Championships and had a nice run at Quail Hollow. Short game has been serviceable as of late.

13. Shane Lowry (T4 in 2021): Shot 62 in the third round of last year’s championship to vault into contention before ultimately settling for a T6 finish. Striking it beautifully and seemingly more comfortable on the greens, Lowry has turned into a major staple (outside the final round 81 at the Masters). In six prior trips to Quail Hollow, Lowry has looked befuddled with his short game with his best finish being a T34. He may still be upset about his final round in Philadelphia.

14. Patrick Cantlay (T3 in 2019): Doesn’t seem to play his best golf in this part of the country, and his history at Quail Hollow is indicative of that with zero top 20s in four trips. He’s striking the cover off the golf ball and putting much better than last year, but his chipping and pitching has been just average.

15. Tommy Fleetwood (T5 in 2022): Sneaky good history at Quail Hollow with three straight top-15 finishes in the Truist Championship. A recent putter switch has proven beneficial in limited time and has upped the consistency for which he is known. Everything is clicking from tee to green, but is his first U.S. win going to be in a major championship? It’s happened for others in similar positions before (i.e. Matt Fitzpatrick).

16. Joaquín Niemann (T23 in 2022): He’s playing great golf, but when Michael Block (1) has more top-15 finishes than Niemann (0) in major championships, it is hard to put him further up the list. Three times a winner in his last seven starts, Niemann will improve on his major record eventually, and this week may very well be that time.

17. Jordan Spieth (T3 in 2019): I am a believer. Not a firm believer, but a member of the congregation nevertheless. Spieth has flashed all aspects of his game so far this season and has shown he can still conjure up that magic with the wand in hand. Quail Hollow is a solid of enough fit for his game the way he is driving it and should allow him to improve on his record when going for the career grand slam which stands at eight made cuts and five straight finishes outside the top 25 in eight total tries.

18. Russell Henley (T12 in 2015): Always a consideration in SEC country, but early week rains hurt his chances. If the golf course dries out, his game is capable on the major stage as shown by three top 25s in his last four starts. The missed cut at the Masters was surprising given his quality across the first three months of the season.

19. Brooks Koepka (Won in 2018-19, 2023): A lot of chatter about what McIlroy’s Masters win did for him, but what did it do to others? Koepka could be the case study on that question as he is now tied for the most majors of this generation. Could this light a fire in his belly? He’s won three of the last seven of these, but he hasn’t done much in majors since raising the Wanamaker at Oak Hill. 

20. Justin Rose (T3 in 2012): The withdrawal from the Truist Championship due to illness was not a welcomed sight, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. A runner-up finisher at the Masters, Rose has now had serious chances at capturing his second major championship in two straight majors. The PGA has turned into a bread and butter as of late as he has finishes of T6-T9-T13-T8-9 in the last five playings. Class, class, class.

21. Tyrrell Hatton (T10 in 2018): He’s my pick for Royal Portrush, so I’m hoping he doesn’t spoil it quite yet. Hatton has a couple top-15 finishes in his last three PGA Championships and finished T3 in the 2023 Truist Championship when he last played the event on the PGA Tour. Shot 2 over across the final 36 holes at the Masters to squander a great start to the year’s first major championship.

22. Corey Conners (T12 in 2023): There’s no denying the game and the run of form he is on, but is Conners a PGA Championship winner in waiting? His irons have feasted at Quail Hollow throughout his career, but unfortunately, his putter has been begging table side for scraps. 

23. Keegan Bradley (Won in 2011): The 38-year-old faded over the weekend in Philadelphia but continues to do a lot of things right. There aren’t too many better from tee to green, and he seems due to play himself into major championship contention. Like Conners, Bradley’s blade is the X-factor.

24. Sungjae Im (T17 in 2021): His iron play isn’t just down for his standards, it is flat out bad. Despite his inability to consistently strike his scoring clubs, Im has found a way to consistently factor in some of the bigger tournaments this season. His three top-five finishes have come at Kapalua, Torrey Pines and Augusta National, and he has notched T4 and T8 finishes in his last two trips to Charlotte.

25. Daniel Berger (T12 in 2018): Not the longest off the tee but among the most accurate. Berger’s game is rounding into form at the exact right time as his iron play seems to take a step forward every single week. Hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in a tournament since January.