The 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder and the 4-seed Denver Nuggets are set to match up in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Western Conference Semifinals on Tuesday. This series has gone back and forth through four games, as things are locked 2-2. The Thunder are fresh off a tight 92-87 victory over the Nuggets at Ball Arena. Tipoff for Game 5 is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are favored by 10.5 points, and the over/under is 221 points in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. OKC is 56-31-4, while Denver is 44-47-2 against the spread this season.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s top-three picks in the Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP on Tuesday:
Denver Nuggets +10.5 (-111)
Even though the Thunder are home, 10.5 points could be a stretch here. The Nuggets have already gone into OKC and beat the Thunder twice this season, including Game 1, when Denver secured a 121-119 win after heading into the contest as a 10.5-point underdog. The Nuggets are also 16-12-1 ATS as the underdog and 11-9-1 ATS as the road underdog.
Aaron Gordon 15+ points (-190)
This postseason, Gordon is averaging 18.3 points, shooting 49.7% from the field and 41.3% from beyond the arc. Over his last 11 playoff games, he has tallied at least 15 points in eight of those outings. In the Game 4 loss, Gordon notched 15 points and shot 3 of 7 from downtown.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-200)
Gilgeous-Alexander is a crafty scorer who gets to his spots with ease on the floor. The 26-year-old led the league in scoring (32.7) during the regular season, and he kept the momentum going into the postseason. He has scored 30-plus points in four of his last six games, including Games 1 and 2 against the Nuggets. Gilgeous-Alexander also has six games with more than 30 points in 24 career regular-season matchups against Denver.
Looking for a potential +300 payout? Bet our 3-leg NBA SGP parlay at DraftKings right now, and get $200 in bonus bets instantly on a $5 bet.
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You’ve seen some the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Tuesday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a sizzling 125-94-1 roll on his last 220 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 21 units.
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