Dos 14 times brasileiros que entram em campo neste meio de semana por Libertadores e Sul-Americana, apenas dois não terão jogos decisivos para suas pretensões na fase mata-mata dos dois torneios, e alguns bem mais que outros.
Enquanto o Palmeiras, já classificado às oitavas da Libertadores, joga as duas próximas rodadas para confirmar a melhor campanha da fase de grupos da competição, o Cruzeiro, último colocado com um ponto no Grupo E, apenas cumpre tabela na Sul-Americana.
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As demais equipes podem ter seus destinos, para o bem e para o mal, selados já nesta semana. Fortaleza, Bahia e São Paulo, por exemplo, podem encaminhar suas vagas à próxima fase da Libertadores.
Em segundo no Grupo E, o Leão do Pici é o primeiro a entrar em campo. Nesta terça-feira, recebe o Atlético Bucaramanga-COL, na Arena Castelão, e pode garantir a classificação em caso de vitória.
O São Paulo, líder do Grupo D, precisa apenas do empate no Morumbis diante do Libertad-PAR, nesta quarta-feira, para conseguir a vaga com uma rodada de antecedência.
No embolado Grupo F, Bahia e Internacional disputam com Atlético Nacional as duas vagas às oitavas. Os baianos lideram e têm mais de 64% de chances de classificação. Uma vitória nesta quarta-feira sobre o time colombiano fora de casa, sela a passagem de fase. Já o Internacional, terceiro colocado, precisa vencer o Nacional, no Uruguai, na quinta, para se manter vivo.
Botafogo e Flamengo vivem situações mais desconfortáveis. Ambos estão em terceiro em seus grupos, porém, jogam as duas próximas rodadas em casa. O alvinegro, que pega o Estudiantes na quarta-feira, tem 56% de chances de classificação. Já o rubro-negro tem apenas 34,9% e pode até perder a possibilidade de avançar as oitavas, a depender do resultado diante da LDU, no Maracanã.
Na Sul-Americana, a vida dos brasileiros é ainda mais complicada. Nenhum deles lidera seus grupos, e apenas o primeiro lugar tem vaga direta às oitavas. Quem terminar em segundo, disputa o playoff com os terceiros lugares da fase de grupos da Libertadores.
Por isso, o Vasco, segundo lugar do Grupo G, precisa da vitória contra o Lanús, nesta terça-feira, na Argentina, para não ser ultrapassado. O Grêmio tem disputa direta pela ponta com o Godoy Cruz, também nesta terça, em Porto Alegre.
O Fluminense tem que vencer o Unión Española na quarta-feira para decidir o primeiro lugar do Grupo F com o Once Caldas na próxima rodada, no Maracanã. Situação quase idêntica à do Atlético-MG, que enfrenta o Caracas, na quinta-feira, e o Cienciano na outra semana.
O Corinthians, em terceiro do Grupo C, precisa de algumas combinações de resultados para chegar à ponta. Mas tem que fazer sua parte contra o Racing, quinta, fora de casa. Já o Vitória não tem mais chances de ser primeiro lugar do Grupo B, mas ainda pode chegar aos playoffs.
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