2025 Fantasy Football Busts 1.0 from Dave Richard: Be wary of Breece Hall, Terry McLaurin & two big Raiders

No one likes to get ripped off. No one wants to be scammed. No one wants to buy something that doesn’t work properly. And nobody wants to get ghosted by a generous prince in a far-away land who needs an up-front payment through the interwebs before sharing his wealth with you.

And if you’re reading this, you definitely don’t want to draft a player who doesn’t end up delivering for your Fantasy Football team.

This whole space is a goodwill gesture to help you avoid busts in your Fantasy draft. And the bust label is relative — sometimes players who we don’t want on our teams fall in drafts and actually become good values. But we’d weed those kinds of guys out through the magic of average draft position (ADP).

That’s why my bust list will not only show the players I’m not drafting based on FantasyPros’ PPR average draft position as of late May, but where I would take them if they ended up slipping. Most of my busts are guys who I believe are being taken one round too soon.

So here are the fellas I’m letting other people draft at their current ADP, listed in order of the aforementioned ADP.

A note on quarterbacks

Most folks are resisting QBs in Round 1 in one-QB formats. That’s good. But they’re still going after the likes of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in Round 2. That’s not good. Here’s the early ADP on the top quarterbacks — a list that gets crazier as it goes along:

Josh Allen, 20.5
Lamar Jackson 22.0
Jayden Daniels 28.0
Joe Burrow 33.0
Jalen Hurts 37.5
Patrick Mahomes 55.0
Baker Mayfield 57.0
Bo Nix 69.5

Mayfield is arguably the most egregious of the bunch, but pretty much everyone except maybe Mahomes feels like a straight-up reach. Remember, the depth of quarterbacks with 20-point-per-game expectations remains strong. Mayfield and Nix might average 22 Fantasy points per game, but the two-point difference between them and others who could be had as late as the double-digit rounds aren’t worth the top-70 ADP.

You could make a case for the first five or six passers on this list to be taken as early as they are because they’re the select quarterbacks who could be statistically awesome. But I’m only interested in them at a value, not at these ADPs. If I can’t get one of them early on, I’m thrilled to wait until the later rounds and take one if not two quarterbacks at a ridiculous value.

A note on two Raiders

I’m still interested in both of these guys, but I feel like these current ADPs are too rich. They’d both have to post outrageous numbers to come through at these price tags.

Bowers averaged 8.7 targets per game last season in a Raiders offense that threw the ball at the third-highest rate (64.3%) and ran the ball with running backs at the second-lowest average (18.2 RB rushes per game). Only the Bears averaged fewer rush yards per carry from its running backs than the Raiders’ 3.6, and it was by one-tenth of a yard.

Jeanty’s arrival in Las Vegas — along with new offensive playcaller and RB-friendly designer Chip Kelly — will alter how the Raiders offense will operate. They had nothing at running back last year, but now they have an outstanding, ultra-talented rookie rusher. There’s no question that Jeanty will change things for everyone in Las Vegas, Bowers included.

This doesn’t mean that I believe Bowers will be a big bust. I just wouldn’t draft him as a top-25 overall player. His efficiency might even improve — Bowers got a quarterback upgrade in Geno Smith — but the sheer volume of targets is a lock to hit the skids if the Raiders run the ball much more often. And don’t forget that Bowers isn’t the only worthwhile target for the Raiders.

As for Jeanty, the expectations are too high for him to be a top-10 pick in PPR (there’s no argument out of me in non-PPR, he belongs). First-round running backs are taken with expectations of a minimum of 1,500 total yards and 12 touchdowns. Eight RBs had at least 1,481 total yards and 12 touchdowns last year, and they all finished top-10 in PPR points per game. Three of the eight also had 40-plus receptions. I think it’s safest to pencil Jeanty in for close to those numbers, but not to draft him like he’s a lock to be.

In my humble opinion, Jeanty is worthy of a top-15 pick in PPR, and Bowers is closer to top 30. If this means I think they’re busts based on average draft position, so be it. But even I wouldn’t resist taking the over on Bowers’ 4.5 touchdowns from BetMGM. If it were 5.5 or 6.5, I’m not sure I’d be as into it. 

Players I Don’t Wanna Draft based mostly on ADP

FantasyPros ADP: 30.5
2024 Fantasy stats: 15.1 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … He’ll work with Justin Fields, a quarterback known for his rushing proficiency and his passing inconsistency. Defenses will adjust to stop the run against the Jets. Fields has started 44 career games — in those games, a running back has notched 15-plus PPR points 18 times, scored 25 times, and totaled at least 100 yards 11 times. Those are ugly averages staring Hall in the face. While he’s easily the most talented runner Fields will have ever worked with, even he will split reps with other running backs to some degree, not to mention lose out on valuable touches to Fields.
I’d draft him: Late Round 3/early Round 4

FantasyPros ADP: 33.0
2024 Fantasy stats: 15.8 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … The only stat that was vastly different for McLaurin in 2024 was his touchdowns — he scored 13 of them. The only metric that was vastly different for McLaurin was his end-zone targets, of which he had 16. Twenty-nine percent of his PPR points came on touchdowns last year — that’s crazy high. I can appreciate Kliff Kingsbury’s focus on getting the ball to McLaurin in the paint, but the addition of Deebo Samuel along with defenses adapting to what McLaurin and quarterback Jayden Daniels do should drive down McLaurin’s scoring chances. If you removed five scores from McLaurin’s 2024 he would have averaged 14.0 PPR points per game. That’s what the expectation should be for him in 2025.
I’d draft him: Late Round 4/early Round 5

FantasyPros ADP: 54.5
2024 Fantasy stats: 15.3 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … His ADP is too steep given that Smith’s target volume and Fantasy point production are hinged entirely to who else is healthy in Philadelphia. When either one of A.J. Brown or Dallas Goedert were sidelined last year, Smith averaged 17.3 PPR points per game. When all three of them were healthy, Smith averaged 8.6 PPR points per game. The same thing happened in 2023, though there were far more games Smith played without one of these teammates in 2024. If we’re drafting Smith just for the games he’ll play without one of his teammates, then we should do so after Round 5.
I’d draft him: Round 6

FantasyPros ADP: 59.0
2024 Fantasy stats: 12.3 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … He’s a Round 5 pick who has never averaged more than 12.9 PPR points in either of his two seasons. It’s probably because he’s averaged right around 6.8 targets per game in his career and has caught six plus passes 11 times in 33 games. It doesn’t help that the Ravens don’t call his name too often in the red zone (20 career red-zone targets). Flowers’ talent is actually awesome, but until the Ravens utilize it more often, Fantasy managers can’t count on him as anything more than a No. 3 option.
I’d draft him: Late Round 6/early Round 7

FantasyPros ADP: 60.5
2024 Fantasy stats: n/a
He’s a bust because … He would have to hog targets and produce unreal efficiency from Bryce Young to pay off for Fantasy managers. That’s not impossible since Young downright dominated in his final three games with an 8.0% TD rate and a 111.6 QB rating. Targets were spread around nicely in those three games — no wideout had more than 7.0 per game then, nor did any Panthers wide receiver average more than 7.0 targets per game on the season with Young on the field. McMillan is a rare talent because he’s so big and shifty, but even he will have an adjustment period that makes his ADP too spicy.
I’d draft him: Round 7

FantasyPros ADP: 71.0
2024 Fantasy stats: 12.6 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … He’s underwhelmed in four of five seasons with no sign of that changing now. Shoot, Swift was under the tutelage of Ben Johnson once before with the Lions, and he wound up getting traded to Philadelphia! This reunion probably won’t result in career-changing stats for Swift, who always teases us with some flashy plays but is never consistently good. I fully expect Swift to split reps with at least one other running back in Chicago if not two or three. That will lead to limited touches and potentially only a handful of high-value opportunities.
I’d draft him: Round 8

FantasyPros ADP: 74.5
2024 Fantasy stats: 10.7 PPR points per game; 13.1 from Week 5 through the end of the year
He’s a bust because … He might be one fumble away from being relegated to the bench. Look, Tracy was pretty dang good for a rookie in 2024, but the Giants really didn’t have anyone else with explosive legs to hand the ball off to. They do in 2025 — rookie Cam Skattebo, who is younger, stronger, more experienced at running back, and just as versatile as Tracy, could potentially be the Giants’ lead back as soon as September. Plus he lost one fumble over his past two seasons at Arizona State. Tracy had his moments last year, but he seems destined to split with Skattebo, and we already know who will handle goal-line work for the Giants on those rare occasions they get there.
I’d draft him: Round 8

FantasyPros ADP: 79.0
2024 Fantasy stats: 8.7 PPR points per game
He’s a bust because … Even though he’ll be over a year removed from a torn ACL, Hockenson’s role as a big-time target in the Vikings offense might be history. We saw Jordan Addison emerge as a red-zone weapon for Minnesota last year, and Justin Jefferson will always have his hands in every kind of role for the Vikes. Both of those receivers figure to land more targets from new Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who has yet to establish himself as capable of getting good numbers out of two different targets, much less three. The target share that turned Hockenson into a stud in 2023 isn’t promised in 2025.
I’d draft him: Late Round 8