Dodgers, Brewers clash in rematch of 2018 NL Championship Series: Key matchups, prediction

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By: Fabian Ardaya, Andy McCullough and Eno Sarris

It will be the self-described “Average Joes” against the team with the richest payroll in the history of the sport for the National League pennant, as the Milwaukee Brewers will look to unseat the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in a rematch of the 2018 National League Championship Series. It was the Brewers who finished with the best record in the National League this summer, with their particular dominance over the Dodgers perhaps serving as the difference between these two sides — the Brewers went 6-0 and frustrated the Dodgers en route to finishing with four more regular-season wins.

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The Brewers will battle an attempt at history. The Dodgers, seeking to become baseball’s first repeat champions in a quarter century, reloaded this winter and have assembled a payroll that will ultimately cost around a half a billion dollars. When they met this regular season, however, they had no answer for the Brewers’ brand of play, a contrast in styles that put constant pressure on a Dodgers team that struggled to find its footing during the regular season but has played some of its best baseball this October.

Game times

Game 1: Monday, 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS, truTV, HBO Max)
Game 2: Tuesday, 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS, truTV, HBO Max)
Game 3: Thursday
Game 4: Friday
Game 5*: Saturday, Oct. 18
Game 6*: Monday, Oct. 20
Game 7*: Tuesday, Oct. 21

* – if necessary

Eno’s edge

Who has the edge?

Key Area Edge

Rotation

Bullpen

Power

Contact

Defense

It says here that the Dodgers only have two edges over the Brewers but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Dodgers’ edge in the rotation covers more than half the innings, since they’re pushing their starters more this postseason and also because their extra starters have spread to the bullpen and almost erased the Brewers’ edge in relief. In addition, teams that hit more homers have won nearly 80 percent of the series they’ve been in over the last five postseasons, while teams that make more contact have won fewer than 50 percent of the series they’ve been in.

Why has the game gone so power-hungry on both sides of the ball? Because it works.

Eno’s prediction

Dodgers in six

The Brewers have two elite bulk-type pitchers and two or three elite relief pitchers, so they can hang in short series — but in a longer series, the Dodgers’ depth will eventually show. Los Angeles has four elite starters, and with Roki Sasaki’s emergence at the end of games, the Dodgers can almost match the Brewers in the ‘pen. And then we get to the lineups, where the Dodgers’ power superiority (they were fourth in barrels over the regular season, and the Brewers were 29th) should tilt the balance in close, low-scoring games. Should.

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Storylines to watch

Can the Brewers pester the Dodgers into submission?

The Brewers owned the Dodgers during the regular season, executing a pair of sweeps around the All-Star break. The Brewers handed Yoshinobu Yamamoto one of his worst outings of the year, scoring five runs against him and preventing him from finishing the first inning. But neither Shohei Ohtani nor Blake Snell pitched in either of those series, and things that happened in July don’t have much of a bearing on the proceedings in October. At the very least, though, the Brewers demonstrated they will not be cowed by facing their better-financed foes.

The Dodgers are not a strong defensive team. Milwaukee will look to test their outfield arms, particularly right fielder Teoscar Hernández, who has made a variety of fielding mistakes this season. (In October, at least, Hernández tends to compensate for those blunders by bashing the ball over the fence.) The Brewers rely on putting pressure on their foes and capitalizing on openings. If Milwaukee can put the ball in play, there will be chances to do just that. But squaring up the Dodgers’ starters will not be easy.

Can Ohtani’s bat come to life?

Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts took a direct approach to describing his evaluation of Ohtani’s offense against the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series. “We’re not gonna win the World Series with that sort of performance,” Roberts said of Ohtani, who went 1-for-18 with nine strikeouts in the series, largely against a bevy of tough Phillies left-handers. The Phillies’ attack plan was simple, to bury fastballs and changeups in on Ohtani’s hands to avoid letting him get his arms extended and setting up off-speed pitches on the outer half of the plate.

It’s been a frustrating postseason for Ohtani, who clubbed a career-high 55 home runs during the regular season. (Harry How / Getty Images)

It’s not as if teams will stop applying their best lefties on Ohtani, even if the Dodgers have structured their lineup to make it so that the left-hander would have to face Mookie Betts and possibly Teoscar Hernández if that’s the matchup they choose. It is simplistic to pin so much on one player, but that’s how great Ohtani’s impact can be.

Does Milwaukee have enough pitching?

For most of this decade, the strength of the Brewers stemmed from their starting pitching. That unit took a major hit during the final weeks of the regular season. First, the team lost confidence in rookie Jacob Misiorowski as he stumbled down the stretch. Then veteran right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who was lined up as the No. 2 starter, suffered a strained lat muscle. Woodruff won’t pitch in this series. Misiorowski came out of the bullpen in the National League Division Series.

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That leaves Milwaukee with only three trustworthy starters: Freddy Peralta, Quinn Priester and Jose Quintana. The team can count on Peralta. Priester and Quintana put up solid numbers during the regular season, but both rely on inducing soft contact, and teams like the Dodgers do not make soft contact. The Brewers will be very cautious about how much they expose either starter to the heart of the Los Angeles lineup. That will place a heavy load on the shoulders of the team’s bullpen, which can get exposed during a seven-game series. And there also will be a chance for Misiorowski, who appeared as a bulk reliever during bullpen games in Game 2 and 5 of the NLDS, to shut down the Dodgers as he did back in July.

Key matchups

Dodgers’ bat-missing starters vs. Brewers’ lineup of pests: It’s hard to conjure up a more powerful postseason rotation than the one in Los Angeles. Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow all strike out more than a batter per inning. The Brewers excel at not striking out and at putting the ball in play while taking walks along the way. It makes for an interesting contrast.

Outside of outfielder Jackson Chourio and catcher William Contreras, Milwaukee will not be trying to slug, which will limit the holes available for the Dodgers to exploit. It is imperative that the Brewers get into the Dodgers bullpen, especially with Roberts lacking trust in so many of his relievers. That will require patience. Both Glasnow and Snell can lose contact with the strike zone, as can Yamamoto, on occasion. (Ohtani, in a limited sample size while returning from surgery, has been filling up the zone with strikes, which is frankly terrifying for opponents.)

The Brewers’ late-inning offense against the Dodgers’ relievers: The Dodgers are attempting to build the entire plane out of Sasaki, and for good reason. He has been a revelation, delivering 5 1/3 scoreless innings this postseason while becoming unquestionably the most trusted reliever in a bullpen that lacks alternatives.

In the 15 relief innings not thrown by Sasaki, the Dodgers have allowed 13 runs. They still think Emmet Sheehan can be a relief weapon. They do trust Alex Vesia, but Blake Treinen has continued to waver. Tanner Scott wasn’t even an option before being removed from the NLDS roster due to injury, and the Dodgers have been incredibly reliant on their starters. That will be tougher in a longer series. Expect the late innings of every game the Dodgers lead to be a high-wire act. The Brewers were one of the best teams in the sport in one-run games this season with a 28-20 mark.

Brewers’ lefty relievers vs. Ohtani: Phillies starters Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo did an excellent job quelling Ohtani in the NLDS, keeping him 0-for-6 with four strikeouts. The Brewers do not have a lefty starter with that sort of ability, although the wily veteran Quintana should play a role in the team’s plans. That puts a heavy burden on Milwaukee’s primary southpaw relievers, Aaron Ashby and Jared Koenig. Ashby could see Ohtani often as an opener in games not started by Peralta. Koenig will be one of the options in the middle innings. He limited left-handed hitters to a .550 OPS this season. He has struck out Ohtani three of the four times they faced each other.

Rookie Robert Gasser could also face Ohtani during a bullpen game. In addition, the Brewers could add another left-handed reliever who was left off the NLDS roster, like DL Hall. But expect a lot of matchups involving Ashby and Koenig.

Player POS Stat

Lineup

DH

4-for-27 (two homers) in October

Rotation

LHP

42 swings and misses

Bullpen

RHP

5 1/3 scoreless innings

Fabian’s X-Factor, the starting pitching: The Dodgers’ starters, on paper, are overwhelming. Yamamoto was one of the best pitchers in the sport this season and might not start either of the first two games this series. Glasnow started Game 4 of the NLDS and delivered six dominant innings. Snell is a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Then there’s Ohtani, who can do it all.

PLAYER POS STAT

Lineup

1B

.714 SLG

Rotation

RHP

15 Ks

Bullpen

RHP

0.00 ERA

Andy’s X-factor, the hidden sluggers: The Brewers did rank 22nd in homers this season. But William Contreras was quiet for most of the first half, and Andrew Vaughn didn’t join the team until July. So the numbers are a tad skewed. As the team demonstrated against the Cubs, it can hit the ball over the fence. Contreras and Vaughn each went deep twice in the NLDS.

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In case you missed it

Dodgers run wheel play to help secure Game 2 win

At the suggestion of Mookie Betts, the Dodgers ran a wheel play to cut down Nick Castellanos at third during a particularly dicey ninth inning, helping the Dodgers take Game 2 of the NLDS in Philadelphia. It was a shining example of the organization’s trust in Betts, as well as manager Dave Roberts’ trust in his own players to figure things out when the moment needs it most.

Dodgers take NLDS on heart-breaking misplay

An instant classic postseason game ended in the most gut-wrenching way, with Phillies reliever Orion Kerkering errantly throwing the baseball behind the backstop, letting the Dodgers score the winning run and punch their ticket to the NLCS.

Despite their stature, Brewers stand tall against competition

The average major leaguer is just north of six-feet tall, but outside Christian Yelich (6-3), the Brewers have no one who exceeds that standard. The Athletic’s Andy McCullough chronicled how the Brewers are able to stand out in a league of giants.

Andrew Vaughn helps Milwaukee slug its way to NLCS

After 4 1/2 less than stellar seasons in Chicago, Andrew Vaughn was traded by the White Sox to the Brewers early in the 2025 season. The 2019 No. 3 pick quickly made good on his draft pedigree, putting up a 141 OPS+ over 64 games in a Milwaukee uniform. Things came to a head during Game 5 of the NLDS, when Vaughn’s fourth-inning solo shot put the Brewers ahead 2-1, a lead they would not give up.

This news was originally published on this post .

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