The 2025 NBA Playoffs are upon us and there are four Game 1 clashes in the first round on Sunday. The action begins with Thunder vs. Grizzlies at 1 p.m. ET and finishes with Rockets vs. Warriors at 9:30 p.m. ET. In between, we’ll also have Celtics vs. Magic at 3:30 p.m. ET and Cavaliers vs. Heat at 7 p.m. ET. All four home teams are favored in the latest NBA odds, but there are also plenty of NBA player props available in each game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s over/under for total points (32.5) is the highest of any player in action on Sunday and BetMGM Sportsbook is offering the best price on the Over (-110), while DraftKings Sportsbook has the best price on the Under (-110).
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Jrue Holiday Over 8.5 total points (-122)
The two-time NBA all-star and six-time all-defensive team selection has taken a backseat as a scorer since arriving in Boston two seasons ago, but he still averaged 11.1 points per game this season and is averaging 11.8 as a Celtic. He’s averaged just over two 3-pointers per game in the last six seasons while shooting 38.7% from beyond the arc and that spot-up ability alone should get him most of the way home on this prop.
He’s scored nine points or more in 10 of his last 14 games to close out the regular season and he’s averaging 12.1 points per game overall during that span. He’s also had nine days of rest since his last game, so the 34-year-old should be fresh. The model predicts 13.7 points on average for Holiday on Sunday against the Magic and FanDuel is offering the best price for over 8.5 points. However, you could also play this number at 9.5 at BetMGM for a -105 payout.
Darius Garland Over 17.5 total points (-118)
Despite playing a career-low in minutes per game (30.7) on a loaded Cleveland roster, Garland averaged 20.6 points per game and shot a career-best 47.2% from the floor while also shooting 40.1% from the 3-point line this season. He’s also stepped his game up against the NBA’s best defenses, going over on his points total in 14 of his last 25 games against teams with defenses that rank in the top third of the league.
Garland averaged 21.2 points per game against those top-third NBA defenses and he scored 18 points or more in 49 of the 75 games he played this season. The model is predicting that Garland scores 20.4 points on average and BetMGM and FanDuel have Over 17.5 total points priced at -118.
Jimmy Butler Under 21.5 points (-102)
The end of the Butler era in Miami was extremely contentious, but the six-time all-star has been an ideal compliment to the Warriors. Golden State went 23-7 after acquiring Butler at the NBA trade deadline and he averaged 27.3 points over his last three games of the regular season. However, Butler still only averaged 17.9 points per game with the Warriors and he’ll have his work cut out against a Rockets defense that ranked sixth in points allowed (109.8) and fourth in defensive rating (110.8).
The model notes that Butler has gone under his total points market in six of his last six games when on the road and playing a top third defense, averaging 13.2 points per game during those contests. It’s projecting that he scores 19.5 points on Sunday in Houston and FanDuel has the best price on Under 21.5 points. However, you can play this number up to 22.5 at Caesars Sportsbook and get -129 on the Under.
Want more NBA picks for Sunday?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for some of the most popular props on Sunday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine, your one-stop shop for instant sports picks:
You can also view expert betting advice at SportsLine before making Sunday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks from an expert who is 95-68-1 (+2011) over his last 161 NBA picks.
SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props, including Alex Selesnick, aka PropStarz, who is 126-88 (+1656) over his last 214 player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who PropStarz is including in his NBA player prop picks for Sunday.
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