Will Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch continue to find answers in the NHL playoffs?

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When the Edmonton Oilers hired Kris Knoblauch in the late fall of 2023, the team was posting strong underlying numbers but bleeding losses at a rapid clip.

When he took over, the team turned things around (as expected), the wins lining up with expected results.

The most memorable tweak: Knoblauch and his staff received massive production when deploying Connor McDavid’s line with the defensive pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard. That move, and the “new coach bounce,” had exceptional sustain, and the Oilers rode a rocket all season and throughout the playoffs. A Game 7 loss in the Stanley Cup Final was the best result for the team in 20 years.

This season has been less rocket and more rollercoaster. As the postseason arrives, there is much worry. Kris Knoblauch found needed answers one year ago. Can he do it again in a more severe situation?

Injuries

The roster has injury issues, with Ekholm the most prominent in the group. He’s the only player confirmed to be unavailable for all of the first-round series versus the Los Angeles Kings. The list of walking wounded includes Troy Stecher, a third-pairing defender used heavily down the stretch.

Add in players working their way back, like Evander Kane and Trent Frederic, and the pool of possible players will grow.

Five-on-five outscoring

In the time Knoblauch coached Edmonton in the 2023-24 season, the team averaged 3.03 goals per 60, allowed 2.16 and enjoyed a 58 percent goal share at five-on-five. That percentage ranked No. 2 in the NHL, via Natural Stat Trick. This season, Knoblauch’s team scored at a lower rate (2.48 goals per 60), allowed more than they scored (2.52 GA-60) and barely resembled the freewheeling team fans saw the previous year.

The team should be set on the power play despite some wobbles this season. The team’s goals per 60 (8.9) was down from 10.5 a year ago, but will be more productive with a now healthy McDavid. That’s the easiest call of the playoffs. The penalty kill this year finished with a 7.94 GA-60, landing in the middle of the pack (No. 17) after allowing 7.55 GA-60 a year ago.

A single playoff series can see special teams have a massive impact, but the Oilers were on the right side of the score in 2024-25. Special teams goals-for in 2024-25 (57-49, 54 percent) show similar success with fewer actual goals compared to 2023-24 (71-58, 55 percent).

The series against Los Angeles, and the playoffs overall, will be decided at even strength. This was not a strength for Knoblauch’s Oilers in 2024-25, and the high-flying team he inherited exists only in theory on the current roster.

McDavid’s line

McDavid had an unusual year but finished the season strong. Since March 1, he’s posting a 4.09 points per 60 at five-on-five, and outscoring in the discipline at a 76 percent rate.

He’s back, and when he’s on 97 can make five-on-five minutes his personal power play.

His power-play performance this season (8.6 points per 60) is an outstanding total. Even during his toughest month (in February, he scored zero points five-on-five) when nothing rhymed, McDavid posted a 9.62 points per 60 with the man advantage.

Knoblauch has all manner of fantastic options for the top line with McDavid firing on all pistons. All numbers below at five-on-five.

Over the last two seasons, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman have been the most common linemates. In 785 minutes, the line outscored opponents at a 61 percent rate. The line is prolific (3.75 goals per 60 is a strong number) and is a good bet to finish on the good side of 50 percent.

Adding Leon Draisaitl to McDavid and Hyman creates an impossible trio for opponents. In 550 minutes over the last two seasons, the line scores at 5.77 goals per 60 and delivers 73 percent of the goals.

If there were enough depth on the roster to run these three together, Edmonton’s chances in every game would increase dramatically.

Knoblauch found an effective top unit by placing Jeff Skinner and Connor Brown with McDavid recently. It’s a small sample, but worth pursuing. In recent days, McDavid and Brown have been practising with Hyman, and that could work, too.

The second and third lines 

The easy decision on the second line is to run Draisaitl with Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson. Over 260 minutes together this season at five-on-five, the line outscored opponents at a 55 percent clip. The GF-60 was low (2.52) for a Draisaitl line, but that fits with Knoblauch’s suppression style. The line is scoring less, but also surrendering fewer goals.

The third line at practice on Sunday (Nugent-Hopkins at centre, with Skinner and Kasperi Kapanen) has barely played together this season. That doesn’t look like a real solution.

The Skinner-McDavid-Brown line works, but it hasn’t been tested over an entire season. In 51 minutes, the line has scored 5.71 goals per 60 and hasn’t been scored upon.

Defensive decisions

Knoblauch and his coaching staff have been credited with some impressive decisions on back-end deployment.

The Ekholm and Bouchard tandem is the king of the Oilers’ defence, but won’t be available for the series against Los Angeles.

Stecher isn’t an option currently, throwing the third pairing into disarray.

The top duo for the Kings series may be Bouchard with Darnell Nurse. During the 2024-25 season, the tandem played 116 five-on-five minutes together and outscored opponents with a 62 percent goal share.

Jake Walman last played on April 7 and may pair with Brett Kulak. Both are mobile, lefty defencemen, and both men can move the puck. The coach will favour veterans in this series, especially early on.

That would leave Ty Emberson, Josh Brown, Cam Dineen and John Klingberg as possible options for the third pairing.

Goaltending decisions

Stuart Skinner returned from injury in time to establish himself as the starting goaltender. Calvin Pickard is ready to step in, and fans saw him play a pivotal role against the Vancouver Canucks one year ago. The organization has invested two long runs over consecutive playoff springs in Skinner as the starter. He backstopped the team to Game 7 of the final last year.

He would seem the logical choice. If general manager Stan Bowman is going to make a chance in the offseason, giving Skinner the net and the opportunity is the play here.

Knoblauch’s spring

There’s only one head coach for the Oilers, although it’s easy to find many thousands who believe Knoblauch is making less than optimal decisions.

There may not be many good choices to make for the Los Angeles series due to injuries. Add in rust, which includes big forwards Kane and Frederic, along with injured Ekholm and Stecher, and the roster is a hot mess as the playoffs get started.

Knoblauch’s decisions on where to play Skinner and Hyman could be key to the series. Fading the third pair heavily is a likely decision. Getting the physicality of Kane or Frederic on the roster is a priority.

Here’s what makes most sense based on the numbers:

• Skinner starts in net.
• Play the top two pairings (assuming all four of Bouchard, Nurse, Walman and Kulak are healthy) heavily while using the third pair sparingly.
• McDavid with Brown and Skinner.
• Draisaitl with Podkolzin and Arvidsson.
• Nugent-Hopkins with Hyman and one of Kane, Kapanen or Frederic.
• The fourth line of Mattias Janmark with Corey Perry on the wings and Adam Henrique at centre could be a big part of the solution given enough minutes.

That’s what the math suggests. Knoblauch has the math, the eye test and the injury report. This roster is rife with danger for an NHL coach. The holes are many and the options are few. The team must win enough games to get healthy, and then get on a roll.

No one in Edmonton wants a false spring for the Oilers. It’s possible things work out just that way.

(Photo: Daniel Bartel / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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