What do Wrexham need to get promoted to Championship? Scenarios for Red Dragons ahead of facing Charlton

Not since 1982 have Wrexham played in the second tier of English football but promotion is tantalizingly within reach for the oldest club in Wales as the League One season enters its finishing straight. With two games to go the equation is straightforward for Phil Parkinson’s side, who on Easter Monday received an almighty helping hand from Charlton Athletic. With Wycombe Wanderers having dropped points, if the Red Dragons win their two remaining games they will jump into the second tier.

The promotion race swung significantly, perhaps decisively, in their direction in the 44th round of games. Away to Blackpool, Wrexham got the job done in nervy fashion. James McClean and Ollie Rathbone struck just after the hour, but a late goal from Rob Apter set the stage for a nervy if successful denouement at Bloomfield Road. Meanwhile in south London, Charlton were doing all sorts of good to the Wrexham cause, sending Wycombe crashing out of second with a 4-0 win at the Valley.

That may not be the end of the story, however. That win kept Charlton’s hopes of automatic promotion alive. Up next for The Addicks? A trip to the Racecourse Ground and Wrexham, who would know by then whether they have got any favors from Leyton Orient, who host Wycombe earlier on April 26. The finish line is in sight for the men from Wales, but can they hold on?

League One automatic promotion race

The sides finishing first and second will automatically be promoted to the Championship with teams ranked third to sixth entering the playoffs, a two-legged semifinal followed by the final at Wembley on May 25.

Wrexham’s remaining fixtures

• April 26: Charlton (h)
• May 3: Lincoln (a)

What do Wrexham need to secure automatic promotion?

Wrexham can lock up automatic promotion to the Championship with a win on Saturday against Charlton, though they will need a little bit of help from Leyton Orient, who will need to beat or tie against Wycombe Wanderers to ensure a win is enough for Wrexham. In that case, there will be at least a four-point gap between Wrexham and Wycombe, which would be impossible to overcome with one game left in the season.

Has a team ever risen as fast as Wrexham might?

If Wrexham do hold off Wycombe and the rest of the contenders, they would make it three promotions in as many seasons. In 2022-23, they returned to the English Football League after a 15-year absence, immediately following that by comfortably achieving promotion from League Two in second place.

Several other teams in English football have risen through three layers of the pyramid in consecutive years — indeed, Truro City and Shaw Lane went up four times in a row, but no one has risen so quickly through the highest levels of the English pyramid. FC United of Manchester, for instance, went up three tiers after their founding by disaffected Manchester United supporters in June 2005 but in doing so reached the Northern Premier League Premier Division, level seven on the pyramid.

For Wrexham, the opposition has been of a higher grade as they chase the second tier. The 2022-23 National League was largely, if not entirely, made up of professional clubs. Every team in Leagues Two and One is fully professional. Of course, it should be noted that Wrexham, owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, have had the financial muscle to impose themselves on every level of competition they have been in so far. That leads to the major question that will come with any possible promotion.

Could Wrexham survive in the Championship?

Park for a moment the prospect of this team going up yet another tier and reaching the Premier League. Back-to-back promotions from League One to the top flight have been done, indeed Ipswich Town did so last season, but teams who manage that tend to be some of the big beasts of the English game. Wrexham might have developed an avid global fanbase since their takeover, but the Championship is an expensive league to be in.

In League Two, Wrexham had a wage bill of over $14 million a year, a figure that will certainly have risen with the recruitment of former Premier League players such as Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Even accounting for an upswing in salaries, a wealthy promoted side might still find themselves spending a third of what the Championship’s richest clubs pay out. Wrexham director Humprey Ker has even spoken about the salary spend needing to quadruple to keep up following promotion.

That investment might be all the more necessary because Wrexham’s underlying numbers don’t scream that this is a team ready to take on the likes of Southampton and Leicester. Parkinson’s men have turned 48.1 expected goals (xG) into 56 goals scored and have faced shots worth 42.4 xG, conceding 32 goals. They might sit second in the League One table but rank the clubs by non-penalty xG difference and Wrexham are ninth.

That is not something that augurs well for Wrexham’s ability to secure promotion in their remaining six games, let alone survive in the Championship if they get there. Then again, the story of this club since 2020 has been a club willing to rise to the moment if it is thrust upon them. If they do indeed make it out of League One, expect the wealth that comes in the Championship to be invested into keeping Wrexham there.