NBA Playoffs picks, odds, how to watch Tuesday: Celtics, Knicks and Pacers can advance on home floors

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It’s been said that chaos is a ladder, and that might still be true, but chaos first and foremost must involve the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers:

This series has been delightfully unhinged. Russell Westbrook thrashed his way to a redemption arc, swinging Game 1 toward the Nuggets in overtime. Kawhi Leonard’s stoic heroism and Jordan-esque iciness sealed Game 2 for the Clips in a second one-possession thriller. Then Aaron Gordon stole one on Saturday night, turning a Nikola Jokić airball into an unprecedented buzzer-beater and halting LA’s 22-point comeback effort. These squads now scale the Rocky Mountain ranges for a hyped-up Game 5.

Elsewhere, three Eastern Conference contenders can lock down series wins in their respective home gyms. The defending champion Boston Celtics look galvanized. The Indiana Pacers are still scorching hot. New York Knicks fans will turn The Garden to the “Ante Up” beat drop. It could be the last day with four scheduled playoff games this year, so, here’s all the good stuff that’s on tap for Tuesday.

Viewing guide for Tuesday

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Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers

Pacers lead series 3-1

Series odds: Pacers -5000, Bucks +1400

This is close to a formality with the gutting news of Damian Lillard’s Achilles tear. Indiana was already cruising past Milwaukee in this matchup, and it needs no caveat for its 2025 surge (10-15 in December but still turned in a 50-win season). The Lillard-less Bucks will be a bit of a bummer, but more saliently, the timing of this injury may knock a seven-time All-NBA star out of next season, too. It’s especially deflating given Lillard’s recent blood clot scare, which shelved him from Game 1 and seemed to hinder upon return (6-for-27 shooting for the series).

The Pacers are fully automated on offense right now. Six scorers are averaging double figures for the series, with Obi Toppin and T.J. McConnell creeping closer to that in limited minutes. Indy’s team shooting splits of 51/40/85 are ridiculous — maybe it’s time to adjust the game difficulty to Hall of Fame, because this looks way too easy. Tyrese Haliburton is now averaging 12.3 assists to 2.5 turnovers. We are all invited to Myles Turner’s block party, just know that it’s BYOL (bring your own Legos).

Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging almost 34 points per game, and Gary Trent Jr. has made more than half of his 3-point tries so far. It’s just not enough. The Bucks traded for Kyle Kuzma to fortify the scoring punch around Antetokounmpo. Through four playoff games, he’s at 6 points per game on borderline-unmentionable 33.3/12.5 shooting percentages. Pete Campbell knows the feeling. It’ll take an otherworldly Antetokounmpo effort to tighten up this series and force a Game 6 in the Deer’s den.

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Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks

Knicks lead series 3-1

Series odds: Knicks -5000, Pistons +1600

Sunday’s game-sealing injustice will be what we all remember, but high-intensity stuff preceded it. Karl-Anthony Towns was a deadeye in the clutch. Jalen Brunson pulled out an abridged Willis Reed. Cade Cunningham’s driving left-handed posterizer should adorn childhood bedrooms across Michigan.

This series has a real old-school vibe, with the reckless abandon of two long-suffering franchises. The crowds in Detroit were riled up and locked in. Tuesday’s showing at Madison Square Garden should turn into an extended Sidetalk video.

The Knicks have taken their 3-1 lead off the strength of Brunson (who was fittingly named the league’s Clutch Player of the Year last week) and Towns (what is an opposing defense supposed to do here?). Ever-resilient postseason performer Josh Hart leads the squad in offensive and defensive ratings so far. New York is also handily winning the turnover margin, giving away 46 and taking 70.

That no-call aside, Detroit really should be in a better spot than this. The Pistons have seized the offensive glass and the free throw rates, and let’s not forget that they could’ve won Game 1 before a 21-0 run gashed them at the end. Cunningham and Malik Beasley are cold from behind the arc, but one breakout performance would give the NBA’s most unlikely playoff team some nothing-t0-lose momentum for a home Game 6.

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Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics

Celtics lead series 3-1

Series odds: Celtics off the board, Magic +6000

Seemingly the only thing to slow down the reigning champs are awkward landings and pulled muscles. Jayson Tatum (wrist) missed one of these tilts after being thrown down onto a stanchion in Game 1. Jrue Holiday (hamstring) has missed two of the four. The Celtics still look comfortable with their 3-1 lead, and now can lock up a playoff series win for the seventh year in their last eight tries. For what it’s worth, Tatum balled out last time:

Boston is a brutal draw for any aspiring contender, but it’s a particularly awkward matchup for Orlando, which hates shoot-at-will long ball as much as its opponent loves it. The regular-season Magic finished 29th in pace and 30th in 3-point percentage. The playoff edition has stumbled down further, shooting 28 percent on treys and notching 100 points just once (exactly 100 in Game 2’s nine-point loss). If they are to pull an upset on the parquet and extend this series back to Florida, it’ll have to be via scrapping and slugging to junk the game.

Orlando’s Game 3 win (95-93) was secured off of turnovers and second-chance buckets. Franz Wagner had 32 points in that game, and Paolo Banchero put up 29. Just one other player hit double figures (Wendell Carter Jr., at exactly 10).

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LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets

Series tied 2-2

Series odds: Clippers -165, Nuggets +140

This has probably been the best series of the first round (sorry, Lakers-T’wolves), and razor-thin final scores suggest that it could go the full seven games. Is it too late to ask for an extended series, maybe best of 11?

The Clippers are really getting what they want out of this matchup. LA has the better field goal percentage and 3-point mark. It has better offensive and defensive ratings, plus fewer turnovers. Most importantly, it has Leonard looking like the two-time Finals MVP that he is. He started the season on ice and slowly ramped up to his usual workload, but the two-way superstar’s April returns have been reason to hoot and holler. The 15-for-19 performance on the road in Game 2 should go down as a proper-noun playoff moment. He’s up to 56.2/47.6/87.5 splits in this series, with more steals than everyone except the consummate stat-stuffer Jokić.

This is what the Clippers envisioned when they moved heaven and earth (and fault lines) to add Leonard in the summer of 2019. The journey to get here was serpentine and occasionally bewildering (remember, no 3-1 lead is safe against Denver, and every clean bill of health deserves public appreciation). As of this writing, though, Leonard does look like the path-clearing lead dog that can elevate LA’s stepson franchise to its first NBA Finals.

Jokić is a champion in his own right, and his 2024-25 campaign will go down as one of the most statistically brilliant seasons in organized basketball. The Nuggets won two of three regular-season head-to-heads in Denver. Gordon is providing more than last-second miracles, now up to a very efficient 17 points per game. Michael Porter Jr. looked more like himself in the Game 4 win (4-for-7 on 3s) and Christian Braun had his best game of the series with added volume for the injured Russell Westbrook (foot).

How can we not get excited about this one for the nightcap? In four games, there have been three last-second, one-possession finishes. Tuesday’s late game will be worth the wait.

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Betting/odds, ticketing and streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Karl-Anthony Towns: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

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