We’re a month into the season. It’s time to worry.
I’m not exactly an optimist. As the joke goes, some people see the glass as half empty, some as half full — I don’t even see the glass.
I find that in this virtual game we play, cynicism pays off. The conventional wisdom is that everyone eventually plays to the back of their baseball card. And that is likely. But with struggling players, we need to identify the reasons their performance has cratered and determine the extent to which it’s actionable, especially in mixed leagues, where you basically trade with the waiver wire. That’s a better practice than reflexively holding guys forever and counting on everything to work out in the end.
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I’m not saying that worry is necessarily a cause for action. It is one for investigation. My criterion for this worry list (below) is that all the players are over 50% rostered (Yahoo).
Stats are via Baseball Savant/Statcast through Monday. Access The Athletic’s guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.
Starters
Bowden Francis (TOR, 57% rostered): The actual stats seem fine — 3.58 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP — but the 19.5% K rate doesn’t play. His expected ERA is 6.29. I would proactively leave the casino, take my winnings (or at least avoid incurring losses), and let someone else chase the surface stats with these horrible fundamentals (xBA: .304, xSLG: .531).
Roki Sasaki (LAD, 92%): He has to be the most disappointing healthy pitcher in MLB. His walks (16.4%) are almost as high as his Ks (18.2%). He’s also been super lucky, with an xERA nearly two runs higher (5.47). His whiff rate on his fastball is 8.9%. (ninth lowest). I’d drop Sasaki and pick up Ryan Gusto (18% rostered) right now. But try to trade Sasaki first.
Corbin Burnes (ARI, 98%): His K% has declined for the fifth straight year, all the way down to 21.9%. His walk rate is a career-high 10.5%. The K% is now stable. The BB% isn’t quite there yet but is closing in on stability. His xERA is 5.23. He’s not droppable and probably not tradable. You have to take it and hope it changes.
Closers
Raisel Iglesias (ATL, 94%): We have to be very careful in bailing on closers. Usually, the team acting first is a prerequisite. The sample sizes are now so small. But Iglesias’ velocity is down. His chase rate is way down, from elite to now below average. His ground-ball rate is down from the 64th percentile to the third percentile. His xERA is 8.26. I don’t see an alternative on the roster. Daysbel Hernandez probably comes closest, but he is a journeyman.
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Trevor Megill (MIL, 72%): He has fought a knee issue but has been terrible in reality and expected stats (xERA 7.72). There are two paths to his being replaced, given his injury woes. Nick Mears is a righty who profiles like a closer and is crushing it (xERA 1.65). Mears stopped throwing his curve (17% in 2024, when it was crushed). I’ve heard no whispers of Mears being a candidate, however.
Devin Williams (NYY, 96%): He’s already been replaced. Should we consider this a long-term issue and drop him? There’s just too much money tied up here for the Yankees to bail. I’d wager they’re going to look for any excuse to get him back in the closer role. His xERA is “only” 5.98. I know, the walks are bad, but they’ve never been good. None of this makes sense. I’d pick him up if he were dropped, assuming sites even let you drop him.
Hitters
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 78%): The bat speed is still very good (84th percentile), but he’s chasing more than ever (above average) and swinging at a career-low percentage of pitches in the zone (just 61.9% — average is 67%). He’s more of a Points League player when his K% is at his prior career number and not pushing 20% like it is now. I’d drop him today in Roto without regret.
Cody Bellinger (NYY, 93%): If you find anything to hang your hat on looking at his Savant page, you’re looking in a funhouse mirror. Here’s how I see Bellinger when I look under the hood at expected stats: Bad in 2021 and 2022, average but very lucky in 2023, below average in 2024, and bad in 2025. Bellinger is just a bad-to-below-average hitter.
Yainer Diaz (HOU, 78%): Diaz is in the running for worst hitter in baseball in 2025. He’s certainly the worst relative to draft/positional ADP. When you chase as much as he does (over 40% vs. MLB average of 28%), you are defying gravity. This is why he’s crashed down to earth. I’d bail right now in one-catcher formats. Sean Murphy, Carson Kelly, Francisco Alvarez and Ryan Jeffers are all under 50% rostered.
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Nico Hoerner (CHC, 87%): He’s “Punch and Judy” — just no power at all. His expected career slugging is .356, and it’s .330 this year. Hoerner is strictly a speed play. He has value in formats that have hitter Ks as a category. Otherwise, he’s costing you too much in the other counting categories.
Willy Adames (SF, 91%): I’m bullish on Adames being the hitter we thought on draft day, when you adjust for the worse hitting park. The Ks and walks are in line with expectations. He’s just not barreling the ball, which can happen for a month at any point in the season. Hold.
Christian Walker (HOU, 88%): I’ve long loved Walker as a very good hitter. But the issue here is that the collapse age for non-Hall of Fame first basemen is about age 34, which is the age he’s playing at in 2025. Strikeouts are a great barometer, and he’s up 8 points from his career rate to over 30%. The likelihood is that this will not substantially improve.
Marcus Semien (TEX, 88%): He’s barely an average hitter for his career in xwOBA. I know he’s been a fantasy hero with power and speed, but he’s objectively one of the worst hitters in baseball. His bat speed is 13th percentile. And he’s 34, so he’s maybe a 15-homer hitter now. He doesn’t seem interested in stealing even double-digit bases anymore. The one reason for hope is his K% is pretty much in line with career averages, unlike Walker’s. But Semien is swinging a Wiffle Ball bat.
(Top photo of Roki Sasaki: Harry How / Getty Images)
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