Journalism enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby on a four-race winning streak, including a trio of graded stakes victories. He is coming off an impressive showing in the 2025 Santa Anita Derby (G1), and he is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. His firm status atop the horse racing odds board has created a bevy of longshots, with 14 horses at 20-1 or longer in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. The only other horses with single-digit odds are Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1).
Most of the speed horses in the field drew inside post positions, including Rodriguez (12-1). Jockey Mike Smith has already won the Derby in gate-to-wire fashion (Justify) in 2018, and he will try to do it again with Rodriguez on Saturday night (6:57 p.m. ET) at Churchill Downs. Who wins this year’s Run for the Roses and which longshots should you consider to spice up your exactas, trifectas and superfectas? SportsLine’s horse racing experts are breaking down the Kentucky Derby 2025 from all angles.
Handicapper Jody Demling has hit 11 Derby-Oaks doubles in the last 16 years. He’s also nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and predicted the winner of the Preakness 10 of the last 20 years. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge. You can see Demling’s full projected leaderboard at SportsLine.
Here are three Kentucky Derby longshots to target, according to Demling:
Burnham Square (12-1)
Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is one of the top riders at Churchill Downs and he used his intimate knowledge of the grounds to help pilot Mystik Dan to a masterful win in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Mystik Dan came from the No. 3 post to win as an 18-1 longshot in a three-way photo finish over Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Hernandez navigated heavy traffic and squeezed by on the rail before holding off the late chargers for a historic win.
Now, Hernandez teams up with Australian trainer Ian Wilkes, who won the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic with Fort Larned and was an assistant trainer when Carl Nafzger won with Street Sense in 2007. Burnham Square was bred to handle this distance and he’s one of the most proven closers in the field with come-from-behind wins in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes. You can bet Burnham Square at FanDuel Racing now and get a no-sweat first bet up to $500:
Luxor Cafe (15-1)
Luxor Cafe is one of two sons of American Pharoah in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field along with Publisher, the Arkansas Derby runner-up and the only horse that qualified without breaking his maiden. While Publisher was racing stateside, Luxor Cafe shipped to Japan just after he was foaled and he qualified with wins in two of the four races on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.
He bested eventual UAE Derby winner and fellow Derby qualifier Admire Daytona (30-1) twice in Japan and put in his most impressive performance to date in his last race, winning by five lengths at the Fukuryu Stakes. He shipped a bit late to Churchill Downs, but he’s looked fantastic on the paddock and looks like another chance for Japan to pick up its first-ever Derby win after Forever Young finished third by two nose lengths in last year’s three-way photo finish. You can bet on Luxor Cafe at 1/ST BET and get up to $250 in bonus funds:
Grande (20-1)
What Grande lacks in experience, he certainly makes up for in upside and training. Todd Pletcher, who has produced two Kentucky Derby winners, is training Grande, a horse with only three career starts and accumulated just 30 points in the Derby prep process. Grande’s only graded-stakes event was the Wood Memorial on April 5. Rodriguez, a top Derby contender, won that race. Grande, however, charged late, showing the type of speed that makes him one of the intriguing 2025 Kentucky Derby sleepers.
Demling notes that Grande was out wide at the Wood Memorial, and a tighter run could aid his chances at Churchill Downs. “The son of Curlin will run well and should like the distance,” Demling told SportsLine. You can bet Grande now at TwinSpires and get up to $400 in bonus bets.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside” and has revealed his pick to win the 151st Run for the Roses. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard and betting tickets, over at SportsLine.
SportsLine also has Kentucky Derby 2025 picks from long-time horse racing journalist Gene Menez, who gave out last year’s winner Mystik Dan (18-1) as a live longshot. You can also find 2025 Kentucky Derby bets from Michelle Yu, a racing analyst who has already hit winners in multiple prep races this year.
Best Kentucky Derby betting promos
Here are several places to bet on the Kentucky Derby.
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