Love him or hate him, Bob Baffert is a name even the most casual horse racing fan recognizes. The Hall of Fame trainer is tied for the most Kentucky Derby wins (six) and has won 17 Triple Crown races entering the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday. After spending the last three years unable to be a part of the Run for the Roses due to a three-year suspension, Baffert is back and looking to become the first trainer to win seven Kentucky Derby races. In the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, Baffert trains Citizen Bull, who is 20-1 in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
Journalism (3-1) is the favorite among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses. Baffert’s name will drive wagers toward his horse in 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, but is there still value in backing Citizen Bull to win at Churchill Downs on Saturday? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and 2025 Kentucky Derby futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling, considering his domination of this race.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One surprise: Demling is fading Sandman, even though he is third in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025 at 6-1. Winner of the Arkansas Derby on March 29th at Oaklawn Park, the three year old colt was a $1.2 million purchase last March. He is 3-for-8 lifetime with three other finishes in the money.
Demling believes in the potential of Sandman, but told SportsLine, “He looks too immature to win the Derby.” He adds that the horse “was still swerving down the stretch in his last race.” While better days might be ahead for trainer Mark Casse’s horse, Saturday won’t be one of them per the SportsLine expert. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby prediction for Sovereignty. The second-place finisher in the Florida Derby is the oddsmakers’ second choice at 5-1 odds, behind only Journalism (3-1). He lost by a length-and-a-quarter to Tappan Street, who was ruled out of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 2025 field due to injury.
Sovereignty is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and enters with two wins and two second place finishes in five career starts. Under regular rider Junior Alvarado, the three-year-old colt could be flying from the back as the horses come down the stretch. With a projected speed dual up front, he may be able to pass tired horses late and finish near the top.
Demling has also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for Journalism, the 3-1 favorite. Based out of Southern California, Journalism placed third in his first race and has since won his ensuing four starts. All five races come in California, so he’ll have to adjust to a new track and new environment at Churchill Downs. Journalism has three stakes victories on his resume, including in the Santa Anita Derby, but some question whether he’s truly been tested. He’s only beaten two other horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, and both are double-digit longshots.
Journalism is sired by the 2007 American Champion 3-year-old, Curlin, who won seven Grade 1 races back in his day. However, Curlin has yet to sire a horse that’s won a Triple Crown race. The pedigree is still strong, nonetheless, as Curlin’s grandsons won two of the last three Kentucky Derbies: Mage (2023) and Rich Strike (2022). Journalism will look to bring the first Derby victory to both trainer, Michael McCarthy, and jockey, Umberto Rispoli. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a huge double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horse profiles
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 4 Rodriguez | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty
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