NBA playoff odds, picks: Why Warriors pull off another Game 6 win; Rockets rely on Steven Adams down low

The Houston Rockets have already proven they will not go quietly, as evident by their 131-116 win in Game 5 over the Golden State Warriors. The action shifts back to San Francisco for Game 6 on Friday and it appears there’s a lot of attention surrounding Steph Curry’s thumb. Can the Rockets force a Game 7, or will the Warriors handle their business at home? There are plenty of plays to look at as one of the best series in the 2025 NBA playoffs resumes.

Now that the 2025 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Since the Golden State dynasty began in 2015, the Warriors have played in 12 different series that have gone at least six games. They have only lost both Game 5 and Game 6 in one of those series, the infamous 2016 NBA Finals, but remember, Draymond Green was suspended for Game 5. They are therefore 11-0 under those circumstances with both Green and Stephen Curry in the picture. I think there are a few reasons for this, but the simplest is that Golden State almost always has more offensive pivots than its opponent because of its unorthodox playing style. If the opponent solves Steve Kerr’s motion, the Warriors can adjust to playing normal, pick-and-roll heavy offense and confuse the opponent all over again. Think of Game 6 between the Rockets and Warriors in 2019 as an example. Curry was stifled completely in the first half. He erupted in the second when he and Green started running pick-and-roll over and over again. Remember when he scored 50 in Game 7 against the Kings a few years ago? Similar concept: Curry doesn’t like playing hero ball, but he can do it. He has more answers for you than you have for him. I therefore expect him to crack this stellar Houston defense in Game 6 more than I expect the Rockets to have new concepts to throw at the Warriors on the other end of the floor. The Pick: Warriors -5

I think Golden State’s offense works in Game 6. I’m not as confident in Houston’s. Their Game 5 offense relied on unsustainable shooting, and their Game 4 offense relied on Green getting into foul trouble and therefore not being on the court to slow down Alperen Sengun. The offense has otherwise struggled mightily, and with the Warriors returning to their home floor for Game 6 with a renewed urgency, I expect them to clamp the Rockets to seal the series. The Pick: Under 204

I picked Steven Adams over 6.5 rebounds in Game 5, and had the game been competitive, he would have gotten there. He had six in around 17 minutes, but the catch is that he had far fewer chances for offensive rebounds because the Rockets made all their shots in the competitive portion of the game. The more they miss, the more chances he gets. If you doubt their offense, bet their offensive rebounding. The Adams-Sengun lineup has been their only reliable weapon in this series. They’re dominating those minutes and getting killed with any other lineup on the floor. They’ll go down relying on it, so roll with Adams. The Pick: Adams Over 7.5 Rebounds