Triple Crown season begins on Saturday at Churchill Downs with the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET, when 19 three-year-olds will battle over a 1 1/4 miles dirt track. After the 2025 Kentucky Derby will be the Preakness Stakes, held on May 17, followed by the Belmont Stakes on June 7. The Kentucky Derby 2025 offers a prize pool of $5 million, with $3.1 million going to the winner. Journalism (3-1) is the favorite in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds after winning his last four starts. Sovereignty is 5-1 among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses, followed by Sandman at 6-1.
Kentucky Derby favorites haven’t prevailed in the last six editions of the race, which means targeting 2025 Kentucky Derby longshots should be part of any 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy. There are several potential 2025 Kentucky Derby sleepers, including Burnham Square (12-1), Luxor Cafe (15-1), Tiztastic (20-1) and Owen Almighty (30-1). Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and 2025 Kentucky Derby futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling, considering his domination of this race.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One surprise: Demling is fading Sandman, even though he is third in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025 at 6-1. This three-year-old son of Tapit will return to Churchill Downs after finishing third and fifth in two Grade 3 races earlier in his career. He most recently won the Arkansas Derby by 2.5 lengths, but Demling isn’t sold on that come-from-behind victory at Oaklawn Park.
“I am just worried about how he was still swerving down the stretch in his last race,” Demling told SportsLine. “He looks too immature to win the Derby.” See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby prediction for Sovereignty. The second-place finisher in the Florida Derby is the oddsmakers’ second choice at 5-1 odds, behind only Journalism (3-1). He lost by a length-and-a-quarter to Tappan Street, who was ruled out of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 2025 field due to injury.
Sovereignty is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and enters with two wins and two second place finishes in five career starts. Under regular rider Junior Alvarado, the three-year-old colt could be flying from the back as the horses come down the stretch. With a projected speed dual up front, he may be able to pass tired horses late and finish near the top.
Demling has also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for Journalism, the 3-1 favorite. Trainer Michael McCarthy made his Kentucky Derby debut last season with Endlessly and wound up with a respectable ninth-place finish. Jockey Umberto Rispoli was also in the saddle for that trip and that was his best finish after placing 14th with Brooklyn Strong in 2021. However, the expectations will be higher for both with this Santa Anita Derby winner.
Sired by 2007 Preakness Stakes winner Curlin out of Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, Journalism debuted with a third-place finish at Santa Anita in October of last year. He broke his maiden just three weeks later at Del Mar and has since ripped off three graded-stakes wins in a row. However, he’s never raced outside of California and he’s only raced against small fields, so the shipment to Kentucky and 19 competitors could be a shock. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a huge double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horse profiles
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza
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