Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has homered four times in his last seven games, moving into second place behind Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh for the season lead in homers. Judge has gone yard 11 times and will play at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium during the Monday MLB schedule. However, Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has only allowed two homers through his first six starts of the season. Judge is +210 to go yard in the Monday MLB home run odds at BetMGM, while Raleigh is +250 to homer against the Athletics.
Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez ranks fourth in the majors with 10 homers and is +340 according to the latest MLB prop bets. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. The model has been routinely calling home run props and is up 28.8 units during the last 27 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Monday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +14509 odds and would pay out $730.47 on a $5 bet at BetMGM.
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+450)
Marte missed nearly the entire month of April due to a hamstring injury, but the 31-year-old returned at the end of last week. He is batting .303 through his first nine starts of the season, and he crushed 36 home runs last year. Marte is facing Mets starting pitcher Griffin Canning, who allowed 31 homers last year
“I am starting to buy into some of the changes the Mets have made with Canning with how good he looks since coming over from the Angels, but I think he is still due for a little regression,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “His career 1.5 HR/9 rate is one of the higher numbers of starting pitchers, but he is at 0.6 HR/9 this season.” The model sets the line at +360 for Marte to homer on Monday, providing value on this line at BetMGM.
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+525)
Freeman has gone yard twice in his last four games, homering against Miami last Wednesday and against Atlanta on Saturday. He has six home runs so far this season, and he is batting an outstanding .333 through his first 23 games. The 35-year-old is slashing .390/.471/.797 against right-handed pitchers, with all six of his homers coming against righties. He is facing struggling Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara, who is 2-3 with an 8.31 ERA this year.
“Freeman has seen Sandy Alcantara quite a few times throughout his career, but he has yet to hit a HR off of him,” Fetner said. “Our model thinks there is a decent chance that changes today given how hot Freeman’s bat has been while Alcantara has been struggling this season while coming back from TJ Surgery.”
Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+420)
Cruz has been one of the top power hitters in the majors so far this season, hitting a team-high eight homers through 30 starts. He has not gone yard in more than a week, so his season stats would suggest another long ball is on the way sooner rather than later. Seven of his eight home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, and he is facing Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas (1-2, 4.66 ERA). He has not allowed a homer this season, but he has allowed 25 or more in each of the last three seasons.
“Mikolas has also allowed 30 hits in 29 IP this season, so he’s allowing plenty of contact,” Fetner said. “His fastball is down 1.2 mph from last season, and the rest of his statcast data is similar to last season, so I would say he is due to start giving up some HRs.” FanDuel Sportsbook has the best price at +420, but BetMGM’s line of +325 will be used for the parlay.
More MLB picks for Monday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 90-48 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 9-3 over his last 12 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Monday.
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