Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years.
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This week’s iteration suggests looking for hitters Ezequiel Tovar and Daulton Varsho and pitcher Matthew Boyd on waivers (among others). THE BAT X also thinks the Rockies and Athletics could have great weeks offensively, based on some tantalizing matchups. And there’s more … so much more. Let’s get to it.
The Waiver Wire
For first-time readers, we compare year-to-date value (expressed as dollars, where $0 would represent a replacement-level player) against their projected rest-of-season value. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know.
For example, Ezequiel Tovar’s year-to-date value is -$17.8, but his rest-of-season value is $10.5. Based on his performance to date (.212 AVG, .257 OBP), he could’ve been dropped in deeper leagues or available in shallow ones. Regardless, THE BAT X thinks he’ll have the most improvement among players on this list with a differential value of 28.2.
On the pitching side, Matthew Boyd has a current value of -$4.6, but THE BAT X projects he’ll end up with a $9.1 valuation, for a differential of $13.7. Outside of Drew Rasmussen, who has a positive current value and is rostered in more places, Boyd has the best outlook on this list. The Cubs lefty has a 2-2 record and 2.70 ERA with a 20.7 K%. His BB% of 9.0 is higher than it’s been since 2022, so there’s no reason to think it can’t decrease to between 7 and 8%, which would align with his career average.
Fades
Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X’s projected rest-of-season value. Geraldo Perdomo is significantly overperforming his projected ROS value. His .292 batting average is the highest of his career, as is his .875 OPS. This could be a breakout season for the 25-year-old, but the more expected projection is that he comes back down to earth.
The following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections, according to THE BAT X projection system. While Tyler Mahle currently has a $22.9 value, he’s expected to finish the year at $4.1, so that hot start might give way in the months ahead. This year, he has a 1.19 ERA, which is the best of his career, but his expected ERA is 3.40. You may not want to drop or trade Mahle just yet, but keep an eye on any signs of regression and act accordingly. Nick Pivetta is similar. His 1.78 ERA and 0.82 WHIP are otherworldly, but in the last two seasons, his ERA was above 4.00. Again, don’t fade him yet, but if he starts to decline, look to trade him while his stock is still high. Nathan Eovaldi and Hunter Brown have astounding year-to-date value and decent rest-of-season value as well. You’re not fading these two entirely, but you could look to trade Eovaldi for a hitter or another top-tier pitcher with better rest-of-season value.
Trades
Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X’s projected rest-of-season value. So far this season, Yordan Alvarez and Gunnar Henderson, two top-tier players, have negative values (-5.1 and -1.7, respectively). Alvarez was just placed on the IL, but Henderson’s rest-of-season value is still excellent. Henderson’s picked it up lately, so his .260 batting average isn’t far from his xBA of .274. If owners aren’t impressed with his season so far, they may be willing to hand him over for someone of lesser value. Henderson’s hard hit percentage of 56.0 is the highest of his young career.
Last week we noted the early struggles of Chris Sale and Cole Ragans. They still haven’t figured it out, but that just means you have a longer window to try to snag them (and the price may have dropped as well). THE BAT X projects that the pitchers on this list can turn their seasons around. Sale may be 1-3, with a 4.84 ERA, but his expected ERA is 3.32, and his BB% is just 5.7. His slider has been his best pitch this year, and it was his best pitch last year, and he pitches it the most. In 301 pitches, the slider has a 44.7 Whiff%, compared to 18.2 on his sinker.
Ragan’s stats look a lot like Sale’s. He also has an ERA above 4, but his xERA is 2.45, so better breaks should be ahead. His changeup is killer, with a 54.7 Whiff% and .156 xBA. See if you can make a trade happen for Sale or Ragans — maybe for someone you have on the fades list.
Hitting
Here are the projected top-scoring offenses of the week, based on their opponents and projected runs per game, as well as hitters with favorable pitching matchups.
Lower down, we look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues.
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Seeing Colorado at the top of this list surprises us, particularly as the Rockies head to two pitchers’ parks and will face Tarik Skubal in Detroit. The data for the tables in this article is automated, so we’re double-checking to ensure something didn’t go haywire. Until then, take the Rockies’ recommendation with a big grain of salt.
Alex Verdugo and Cal Raleigh show up on our rundown this week due to the pitchers they’re expected to face. Verdugo has a .304 average and .361 OBP in 56 at-bats since getting called up by the Braves. Raleigh is a little different. He comes in hitting .246 but with a .358 OBP and .587 SLG, but has already launched 12 homers, most in the majors. Raleigh will get a chance to face Luis Severino, whose HardHit% sits at 43.7% this season, approaching his career high.
This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. Tyler Fitzgerald is overperforming significantly and is on the IL, so if your IL spots are full, you can drop him for someone you’ve been eyeing on waivers. Some on this list, including Leody Taveras, are hardly rostered, but Andy Pages is around 50% rostered on Yahoo, and he’s been trending a little. He has a .269 batting average this season, but a .224 xBA. His launch angle this season is only 17.7. He’s also striking out 24.5% of the time, which aligns with his career average. Think about unloading him before it’s too late.
The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Jacob Amaya makes this list with his differential. But a .103 OBA and a .211 xwOBA are nothing to write home about. Salvador Perez tops this list due to his .139 differential. He’s batting .244 this year, and his expected average is .331, which is significantly better. His hard hit percentage is 46.9, which is higher than his previous two seasons, and he should rebound soon, according to THE BAT X.
Pitching
THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens.
The best projected pitcher this week is Tarik Skubal when facing the Colorado Rockies, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. So far in 2025, Skubal has a 2.21 ERA, down from a spectacular 2.39 ERA in 2024. This year, he’s throwing his changeup 33% of the time with a 47.1 whiff percentage, a devastating pitch given his four-seamer is coming in at 97.4 mph on average. Interestingly, he’s thrown a knuckle curve only 11 times, but it has a 100 Whiff%.
At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Zack Wheeler, facing the Rays and Guardians. So far this season, he’s 2-1 in 44 innings pitched. He’s throwing his four-seamer at an average of 95.4 mph with a 31.8 Whiff%. His curveball has been stellar; he’s used it 70 times, and it carries a 42.9 Whiff% and an xBA of .097. Brady Singer (facing Atlanta and Houston) is fifth on this list and sports a 4-1 record and 1.08 WHIP.
Corbin Burnes hasn’t had a great start to the season, and now he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation. He did secure the win on April 30 against the Mets but had five walks to three strikeouts. Even if he’s ready to go against the Dodgers, his 1-1 record and 3.58 ERA (and 5.34 xERA) aren’t promising against a loaded LA lineup that includes Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith (.318 BA). Tommy Edman is on the 10-day IL, but Dodgers’ bats are hot.
Based on matchups, the Nationals’ and Cardinals’ bullpens have the best chance at successful outcomes this week. But Kansas City’s Lucas Erceg has started the season tremendously. In 14.1 IP, he has a 0.63 ERA (with a still respectable 1.82 xERA), a 0.56 WHIP and 10 strikeouts.
THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.
(Photo of Ezequiel Tovar: Justin Edmonds / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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