Champions League semi-final betting: Are Arsenal PSG’s next Premier League victim?

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On Wednesday night, Arsenal will attempt to climb a mountain. They face Paris Saint-Germain at the Parc des Princes in the Champions League semi-final second leg and must overturn a 1-0 deficit. If they fail, their European dream will fizzle and die.

Can they achieve what three Premier League teams – Manchester City, Liverpool and Aston Villa – have already failed to do and dispense with les Parisiens once and for all? Let’s explore their chances through a betting lens, identifying good value wagers along the way.

The Gunners are a long shot

When wagering on second legs, you have to pick a lane: bet on the result on the night or on which team qualifies. We’ll assess the odds for both markets here.

Starting with the result on the night, PSG are a shade better than evens to win at home. If that looks too good to be true, that’s because it might be – they don’t need to win on Wednesday, so they may find themselves in a position where they don’t have to force it, as a draw will carry them through.

Arsenal to win, or a draw on the night, are priced similarly, and both considered unlikely by the bookmakers, which is a nod to the fact PSG are an utterly dominant force at home. They’ve lost just two of 13 since the turn of the year, one of which was Liverpool’s miracle victory, the other coming against OGC Nice, while they were distracted by the Champions League.

The Gunners’ odds lengthen even further when considering who will qualify for the final. They’re up against a team who have largely overwhelmed the three English clubs they’ve faced on home soil, and there’s a clear expectation they make that four.

It’s tough to argue against that. Although some contrarian bettors may have watched PSG’s inability to finish this game off in the first leg and sensed a potential lack of killer instinct that could haunt them in Paris.

How to bet on PSG pressure?

If you could just bet on teams having tonnes of possession, PSG games would be simple. They’ve averaged 63 per cent of the ball per Champions League game this season, with that figure reaching as high as 70 per cent against Liverpool and 74 per cent against Villa. They always dominate.

The question for bettors is how to put that knowledge to good use in the available markets. Will possession result in lots of goals? Early goals? Or a slower pace to the game that erupts later on?

Based on what we’ve seen from Les Parisiens in 2025, it’s fair to expect a fast start from the hosts. They have a habit of suffocating teams from the first whistle via constant possession and pressure, which often results in the visitors buckling. The fact PSG struck so early in London in the first leg only strengthens this theory.

PSG to score the first goal is 8/11 – not the most enchanting of prices, but good enough to back, given the general pattern of their games. It is not in their interests to let Arsenal feel their way into this match and gain confidence, and if they hit that top level from the off, the Gunners will be in big trouble.

Should they maintain that pressure, PSG to have the most shots on target in each half at 21/10 starts to look like excellent value. Given the way they share the shots and goals around, it might be a safer strategy than picking a specific goalscorer.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Arsenal, is it?

PSG may well make Arsenal uncomfortable at points during this game, but Mikel Arteta will expect his team to respond in kind where possible. The visitors will suffer spells without the ball and momentum – but when they do get it, they have the tools to hurt the hosts.

Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka offer speed and guile on the flanks, and the former, in particular, should find plenty of space to run into off the back of hyper-attacking full-back Achraf Hakimi. The Brazilian should have scored in the first leg after slipping in behind and stands to receive a few more chances in Paris. He’s 7/2 to score anytime or 2/1 to score or assist anytime.

Mikel Merino looks likely to return to the striker role now that Thomas Partey is back in midfield, and while the Spaniard’s threat is limited in open play, he wreaks havoc from set-piece situations. He had a good headed goal ruled out for offside in the first leg, and while Luis Enrique insists his side aren’t afraid of the Gunners’ dead-ball prowess, they probably should be. He’s 10/3 to score anytime.

Perhaps the most interesting market, though, is Declan Rice. He’s been a force from set pieces for over a year, supplying perfect inswinging corners from the left side. More recently, he’s started shooting from free-kick scenarios. His two strikes against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals were truly stunning, which has only convinced him to try it more often.

Betfair’s odds boost of 9/2 for Rice to land 1+ shot on target is perhaps the cleverest way to bet on Arsenal’s attacking fortunes.

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Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Justin Setterfield / Getty Images)

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