A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy baseball categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Advertisement
[Smarter waivers, better trades, optimized lineups — Yahoo Fantasy Plus unlocks it all]
Mason Miller’s 4.61 ERA is a lie
Miller’s 4.61 ERA is accompanied by a 1.53 SIERA, which is the second lowest among all pitchers. He ranks first in K% (47.3) and second in K-BB% (36.4). Miller has only been scored on during two of his 14 appearances, but one blowup is masking an otherwise dominant season like he had last year.
Miller has been the most difficult pitcher to make contact against in 2025 (his Whiff% is in the 100th percentile), but no one has allowed more hard hits when contact is made. Miller’s Hard-Hit% is in the first percentile, and he’s already allowed more than half as many Barrels (four) this season compared to all of 2024 in 100+ fewer batted balls. Miller’s Hard-Hit% was in the 92nd percentile last season, and his average exit velocity was in the 96th, so regression is coming.
Advertisement
The Athletics have provided the third most save opportunities, and Miller’s ERA is sure to drop steeply. Miller looks like the top fantasy closer moving forward.
Juan Soto’s 17 RBI are a lie
Soto may be heating up after hitting two homers Wednesday, but they were his first RBI in a week. Soto has recorded 109 RBI each of the past two seasons, but he’s on pace to finish with just 72 this year. Soto entered Wednesday with a higher wRC+ (135) at home than on the road (132), so his new home park hasn’t been to blame for the slow start.
Soto’s RBI production has been down thanks to sequencing and bad luck. His Statcast page remains bright red, and Soto’s K% (14.2) is actually a career low. But he’s batting just .138/.278/.276 with runners in scoring position (despite a 5:6 K:BB ratio) compared to .333/.438/.560 with the bases empty. Soto smashed a .345/.470/.672 line last year with RISP, so regression seems inevitable.
Advertisement
Soto’s RBI production will grow.
MacKenzie Gore’s two wins are a lie
Gore has been a revelation this season, and he’s deserved much better. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in seven of eight starts (and four in the other) while sporting a 3.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (while ranking top 10 in innings pitched), but 42 pitchers have recorded more wins. The Nationals’ bullpen owns a mind-blowing 7.16 ERA that can only improve.
Moreover, Gore has pitched better than his other stats indicate, as his 3.33 ERA comes with a 2.37 SIERA that’s the lowest among 85 qualified starters. Gore also ranks first in K-BB% (29.4), with a mark that would be the best any starter has finished with since 2021 (Corbin Burnes). Five of Gore’s eight starts have come on the road, including in Coors Field and Great American Ballpark, so his schedule hasn’t been favorable either. Gore likely won’t start racking up wins while pitching in Washington, but the former No. 3 overall pick has finally emerged as an ace.
Advertisement
Jackson Holliday’s No. 407 fantasy rank is a lie
Holliday got off to a rough start with a .569 OPS over the first two weeks of the season, but he’s hit .333/.434/.533 with three homers and a steal over 16 games since. A revamped stance has helped Holliday’s resurrection, and he’s cut his K rate down 10% from his rookie campaign. Holliday is still just 21 years old, and he’s suddenly sporting a 120 wRC+. Holliday stated a desire to steal 30 bases before the season, and while he’s only recorded two, he’s attempted five SBs. His Sprint Speed is in the 89th percentile, so he’s certainly capable of contributing more steals moving forward. Holliday still struggles against lefties, but the former No. 1 overall pick has shown major growth in 2025.
Moreover, Oriole Park has been baseball’s most favorable hitter’s park this season. Of course it’s a tiny sample, but Baltimore has boosted homers for lefties by a staggering 105% so far in 2025. Holliday’s misleading fantasy rank will finish a lot higher.
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
2025 Truist Championship scores, takeaways: Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas reach top five entering Moving Day
Getty Images Entering this week's Truist Championship, the course record at the Wissahickon Course at the Philadelphia Cricket Club was a 65, but calm soft conditions on Thursday saw 10 players beat that number, led by Keith Mitchell's 9-under 61. Friday's second round proved to be more difficult as players had to play through a pretty steady rain for most of the day, even with tee times moved up to avoid the worst of the weather. That brought scoring up considerably as winds shifted and picked up alongside the wet conditions, making the course play longer and tougher. The average score on Friday was more than three shots higher than Thursday's birdie bonanza as the Cricket Club got to show its teeth in rainy conditions. The round of the day belonged to Shane Lowry, whose 5-under 65 moved him into solo second […]
Bývalého vítěze Tour de France Ullricha srazilo při tréninku auto
Jednapadesátiletého Ullricha srazilo auto při tréninku v blízkosti jeho domova. Při havárii utrpěl zlomeninu klíční kosti a další pohmožděniny. Své účinkování v živém vysílání studia Velo Club na Eurosportu tak musel zrušit.Ullrich zvítězil na slavné Tour de France v roce 1997, vedle toho skončil na „Staré dámě“ ještě pětkrát druhý. Na olympijských hrách v Sydney vyhrál závod s hromadným startem a byl druhý v časovce, kterou pro změnu ovládl na mistrovství světa 1999 a 2001.Kariéru musel ukončit nedobrovolně v roce 2006 kvůli kauze kolem španělského lékaře Eufemiana Fuentese, kterou odhalila antidopingová akce Puerto. Ullrich patřil k jeho klientům a Sportovní arbitrážní soud CAS jej později potrestal dvouletým zákazem startů a diskvalifikoval ze závodů v letech 2005 a 2006. Teprve v roce 2023 Ullrich v otevřené zpovědi přiznal, že během kariéry dopoval.
49ers waive former second-round pick after failed physical; here’s when he’s expected to return, per report
Getty Images In a surprising move, the San Francisco 49ers are waiving outside linebacker and former second-round pick Drake Jackson with a failed physical designation, according to ESPN. Jackson is rehabbing a knee injury but is expected to be cleared by training camp, per the report. The 61st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Jackson had three sacks, an interception and eight passes defensed while appearing in 15 games during his rookie season. In Week 1 of the 2023 season, he had a whopping three sacks of then-Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett while helping the 49ers record a 30-7 win. Jackson's season -- and career -- took a major turn seven weeks later, when he suffered a severe knee injury that sidelined him for the remainder of the 2023 season as well as the entire 2024 season. Jackson underwent surgery in January […]
Barcelona vs. Real Madrid: Final El Clasico of the season finds two teams facing uncertainty and upheaval
Getty Images La Liga could be virtually decided on Sunday when Real Madrid and Barcelona meet in the last El Clasico of the season, but for both teams, things look quite different from where they did at the beginning of the week. Barcelona's quest for the treble is now over with them getting knocked out of the Champions League at the hands of Inter, and Real Madrid's next manager could be on the way with Xabi Alonso announcing his departure from Bayer Leverkusen at the end of the season. Top 10 moments from Inter's epic Champions League win over Barca: Francesco Acerbi's goal, Lamine Yamal stars Pardeep Cattry For a match that defines La Liga, this Clasico between both teams is a major inflection point, as each looks to save their respective seasons. Barcelona can put the Champions League behind […]
Craque Neto crava placar de Palmeiras x SPFC no Brasileirão: “Vai ser”
Estêvão disputa bola com Alan Franco (Cesar Greco - Ag. Palmeiras) O Craque Neto não ficou ‘em cima do muro’ ao projetar a disputa do clássico entre Palmeiras e São Paulo, que acontece no próximo domingo (11), às 17h30 (de Brasília), pela 8ª rodada do Brasileirão. No “Os Donos da Bola” de hoje, ele foi contundente ao bancar triunfo do time alviverde. Líder da Série A, com 16 pontos, o Verdão chega embalado após triunfo e classificação antecipada às oitavas da Libertadores. Único invicto do certame, o Tricolor também está com a confiança em alta, haja vista que superou o Alianza Lima no Peru, por 2 a 0, e encaminhou passaporte no torneio continental. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE “Pra mim, vai ser 3 a 1 para o Palmeiras”, opinou o Craque Neto, sendo complementado por Velloso, que também palpitou em um triunfo […]
Rad-Legende von Auto angefahren – Jan Ullrich bei Unfall verletzt – Klinik!
Schock für Jan Ullrich (51)! Der frühere Tour-de-France-Champion wurde bei einem Unfall verletzt. Wie Eurosport unter Berufung auf sein Management berichtet, wurde Ullrich beim Radtraining nahe seines Wohnortes von einem Auto angefahren. Die Folgen: Schlüsselbeinbruch, Prellungen und Hautabschürfungen. Ullrich musste ins Krankenhaus und dort behandelt werden. Ullrich sollte in den nächsten Tagen bei Eurosport als Gast in der Sendung „Velo Club“ auftreten, um über den am Freitag gestarteten Giro d'Italia zu sprechen. Doch diese Auftritte sind nach dem Unfall gestrichen.
Related
2025 Truist Championship scores, takeaways: Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas reach top five entering Moving Day
Getty Images Entering this week's Truist Championship, the course record at the Wissahickon Course at the Philadelphia Cricket Club was a 65, but calm soft conditions on Thursday saw 10 players beat that number, led by Keith Mitchell's 9-under 61. Friday's second round proved to be more difficult as players had to play through a pretty steady rain for most of the day, even with tee times moved up to avoid the worst of the weather. That brought scoring up considerably as winds shifted and picked up alongside the wet conditions, making the course play longer and tougher. The average score on Friday was more than three shots higher than Thursday's birdie bonanza as the Cricket Club got to show its teeth in rainy conditions. The round of the day belonged to Shane Lowry, whose 5-under 65 moved him into solo second […]
Bývalého vítěze Tour de France Ullricha srazilo při tréninku auto
Jednapadesátiletého Ullricha srazilo auto při tréninku v blízkosti jeho domova. Při havárii utrpěl zlomeninu klíční kosti a další pohmožděniny. Své účinkování v živém vysílání studia Velo Club na Eurosportu tak musel zrušit.Ullrich zvítězil na slavné Tour de France v roce 1997, vedle toho skončil na „Staré dámě“ ještě pětkrát druhý. Na olympijských hrách v Sydney vyhrál závod s hromadným startem a byl druhý v časovce, kterou pro změnu ovládl na mistrovství světa 1999 a 2001.Kariéru musel ukončit nedobrovolně v roce 2006 kvůli kauze kolem španělského lékaře Eufemiana Fuentese, kterou odhalila antidopingová akce Puerto. Ullrich patřil k jeho klientům a Sportovní arbitrážní soud CAS jej později potrestal dvouletým zákazem startů a diskvalifikoval ze závodů v letech 2005 a 2006. Teprve v roce 2023 Ullrich v otevřené zpovědi přiznal, že během kariéry dopoval.
49ers waive former second-round pick after failed physical; here’s when he’s expected to return, per report
Getty Images In a surprising move, the San Francisco 49ers are waiving outside linebacker and former second-round pick Drake Jackson with a failed physical designation, according to ESPN. Jackson is rehabbing a knee injury but is expected to be cleared by training camp, per the report. The 61st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Jackson had three sacks, an interception and eight passes defensed while appearing in 15 games during his rookie season. In Week 1 of the 2023 season, he had a whopping three sacks of then-Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett while helping the 49ers record a 30-7 win. Jackson's season -- and career -- took a major turn seven weeks later, when he suffered a severe knee injury that sidelined him for the remainder of the 2023 season as well as the entire 2024 season. Jackson underwent surgery in January […]
Barcelona vs. Real Madrid: Final El Clasico of the season finds two teams facing uncertainty and upheaval
Getty Images La Liga could be virtually decided on Sunday when Real Madrid and Barcelona meet in the last El Clasico of the season, but for both teams, things look quite different from where they did at the beginning of the week. Barcelona's quest for the treble is now over with them getting knocked out of the Champions League at the hands of Inter, and Real Madrid's next manager could be on the way with Xabi Alonso announcing his departure from Bayer Leverkusen at the end of the season. Top 10 moments from Inter's epic Champions League win over Barca: Francesco Acerbi's goal, Lamine Yamal stars Pardeep Cattry For a match that defines La Liga, this Clasico between both teams is a major inflection point, as each looks to save their respective seasons. Barcelona can put the Champions League behind […]
Craque Neto crava placar de Palmeiras x SPFC no Brasileirão: “Vai ser”
Estêvão disputa bola com Alan Franco (Cesar Greco - Ag. Palmeiras) O Craque Neto não ficou ‘em cima do muro’ ao projetar a disputa do clássico entre Palmeiras e São Paulo, que acontece no próximo domingo (11), às 17h30 (de Brasília), pela 8ª rodada do Brasileirão. No “Os Donos da Bola” de hoje, ele foi contundente ao bancar triunfo do time alviverde. Líder da Série A, com 16 pontos, o Verdão chega embalado após triunfo e classificação antecipada às oitavas da Libertadores. Único invicto do certame, o Tricolor também está com a confiança em alta, haja vista que superou o Alianza Lima no Peru, por 2 a 0, e encaminhou passaporte no torneio continental. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE “Pra mim, vai ser 3 a 1 para o Palmeiras”, opinou o Craque Neto, sendo complementado por Velloso, que também palpitou em um triunfo […]
Rad-Legende von Auto angefahren – Jan Ullrich bei Unfall verletzt – Klinik!
Schock für Jan Ullrich (51)! Der frühere Tour-de-France-Champion wurde bei einem Unfall verletzt. Wie Eurosport unter Berufung auf sein Management berichtet, wurde Ullrich beim Radtraining nahe seines Wohnortes von einem Auto angefahren. Die Folgen: Schlüsselbeinbruch, Prellungen und Hautabschürfungen. Ullrich musste ins Krankenhaus und dort behandelt werden. Ullrich sollte in den nächsten Tagen bei Eurosport als Gast in der Sendung „Velo Club“ auftreten, um über den am Freitag gestarteten Giro d'Italia zu sprechen. Doch diese Auftritte sind nach dem Unfall gestrichen.
Be the first to leave a comment