Fantasy baseball bullpen report features concerns for Ryan Pressly and Carlos Estévez

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Since my last post, many bullpen situations have stabilized, providing fantasy managers with clarity. However, multiple rough outings — in part due to fatigue after the first month — has put some relievers on watch and we’ve seen some changes in the high-leverage ecosystem.

With this in mind, it’s time to reset our leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:

Mostly linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.

Primary save share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in matchup-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.

Matchup-based: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes, based on handedness, rest or recent usage patterns to keep them fresh. While these situations typically rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can also become involved. Some teams also prefer a matchup-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, which creates fluid save opportunities.

In-flux: The manager has not confirmed the projected closer based on past struggles or rough spring appearances.

American League Leverage Pathways

Relievers on the Rise

Steven Cruz (KC): After lookin at the Yankees’ Fernando Cruz last week, this week brings a different Cruz to our highlight segment. Since April 24, Steven Cruz has converted three holds while posting five scoreless appearances across 5.1 innings. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, but he pounds the strike zone (66.7 strike percentage) and has produced a 52.2 percent ground-ball rate. His 0.78 WHIP accompanies a 2.21 xERA — he’s not allowed a barrel, with only a 34.8 hard-hit percentage allowed. His role as a set-up reliever remains in flux as the team awaits the return of Hunter Harvey, but he’s a stream option in SOLDS formats.

Liam Hendriks (BOS): He has not recorded a save since June 6, 2023, and is still searching for slightly more velocity, but he’s posted two scoreless outings in May with two strikeouts, zero walks and one hit allowed. He may be earning a larger leverage role soon. He could garner ancillary save chances when Aroldis Chapman is needed against tough left-handed hitting pockets in the eighth inning.

Closer Concern

Carlos Estévez (KC): Understanding he has recorded a win, converted 11 of 13 save chances and does not have a loss, the under-the-surface statistics are causing some concern. His 2.65 ERA has a 3.47 xERA and 4.45 SIERA, suggesting some regression will be in the offing. He’s also posted a 12.2 walk percentage, causing a decline in his K-BB percentage by 9.8 points compared to last year. He’s allowing more contact (up 8.7 percent) and more contact in the strike zone (9.1 percent more than in 2024).

Estévez has thrown three pitch types this year, all producing a swinging strike rate below 10 percent — last year, he recorded at least an 11.6 percent swinging rate with each. If his current .250 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) migrates toward his career .306 rate, his ratio statistics may be affected. Monitor his upcoming outings closely.

National League Leverage Pathways

Relievers on the Rise

Daniel Palencia (CHC): While most of the focus will be on his teammate in the section below, Palencia  hasn’t been scored upon in his past six appearances, with six strikeouts against two walks (19.1 K-BB percentage) and a 0.50 WHIP. Again, this is more of a SOLDS recommendation, but he should earn a larger leverage role if the relievers ahead of him continue struggling.

Nick Mears (MIL): He owns an eight-game streak without an earned run allowed and has recorded a hold in his past two appearances. He’s also been the team’s “fireman,” stranding 10 of his 14 inherited runners in this stretch, with six strikeouts against one walk and a 0.649 WHIP over 7.2 innings.

Camilo Doval (SF): He’s amid a 13-game streak without allowing an earned run, during which he’s posted a 0.33 WHIP with 11 strikeouts versus three walks (20 K-BB%) through 12.1 innings. He remains an ancillary save target but is still on the outside looking in for the closer role on his team.

Tracking: Luis Mey (CIN)

Closer Concern

Ryan Pressly (CHC): His last appearance was historically bad. He finished with nine runs (eight earned) allowed, including five hits, a hit batter, and a walk without recording an out. His WHIP ballooned to 1.92. On the season, he’s only recorded five strikeouts against eight walks (-4.8 K-BB%) through 13 innings. Manager Craig Counsell cited his closer had allowed one unearned run over his previous 10 appearances.

Instead of focusing on this latest outing, the lack of whiffs must be addressed. Let’s expand the sample size to include his last statistical year (365 days), 2024, and his career rates:

His rolling game chart displays this clearly, along with his second-half struggles last season:

There doesn’t appear to be a quick fix or easy answer for Pressly, especially when considering his splits by pitch:

If possible, stash Porter Hodge if Pressly’s swinging strike percentage does not improve and his fifth-worst hard-hit percentage (56.3 percent) remains. Counsell can be stubborn, as his faith in Héctor Neris last season proved, but from a fantasy lens, the current Cubs closer sits on the hot seat. Guts and guile only get a reliever so far throughout a season, but a team with championship aspirations cannot sit idly by.

► Updated Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS

2025 leaderboards

Save Stashes

• Porter Hodge (CHC)
• Chris Martin/Robert Garcia (TEX)
• Jesús Tinoco (MIA)
• Zach Agnos (COL)

Ancillary Save Options

• Kirby Yates (LAD)
• Jordan Romano (PHI)
• Lucas Erceg (KC)
• Yennier Cano (BAL)
• Liam Hendriks (BOS)
• Carlos Vargas (SEA)

Ratio Relievers

*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios.

• Brant Hurter (DET)
• Taijuan Walker (PHI)
• Kyle Leahy (STL)
• Hogan Harris (ATH)

Statistical Credits (through games played on May 7): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net

Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates.

(Photo of Ryan Pressly: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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