The second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs continues on Sunday when the Florida Panthers host the Toronto Maple Leafs for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Toronto won the first two games of the series, but Florida bounced back with a 5-4 win in overtime on Friday to get back to 2-1. All three games so far have been decided by one goal. This is the second time in three years that these two teams have met in the NHL playoffs, with the Panthers ousting the Maple Leafs 4-1 during the 2023 Eastern Conference semifinals.
For Game 4 of Florida vs. Toronto, puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise. Florida is a -188 home favorite on the money line (risk $188 to win $100) in the latest Panthers vs. Maple Leafs odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, while Toronto is the +155 underdog (risk $100 to win $155). The over/under for total goals scored is 5.5, and the Panthers are -1.5 (+136) on the puck line. Before making any Maple Leafs vs. Panthers picks, be sure to see the NHL predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. It entered the second full week of the 2025 NHL playoffs a combined 78-55 on top-rated NHL puck line and over/under betting picks, returning more than $1,500 for $100 players. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns. Now, here are its three best bets for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs on Sunday:
Maple Leafs money line (+155)
Toronto won the Atlantic Division this season and had the second-most points in the Eastern Conference behind only the Washington Capitals. However, oddsmakers have baked in their playoff failures of recent years and Florida’s consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup finals. In Game 3, the Maple Leafs raced out to a 3-1 lead but allowed three unanswered second-period goals to relinquish the lead before Morgan Rielly forced overtime.
They’d go on to suffer their first loss of the series when Brad Marchand scored the winner in overtime. However, even in the loss, Toronto has looked like a different team than the one we saw brushed aside in five games by the Panthers in 2023 and bounced in the first round of the 2024 NHL Playoffs. The model predicts that the Maple Leafs win in 54% of simulations on Sunday, creating incredible value on Toronto money line given the implied odds of 39.2%.
You’ve seen one of the best bets for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers on Sunday. Now, get picks for every game from the model that is on a 78-55 run on over/under and puck-line picks.
Sam Reinhart Under 0.5 points (+150)
The 29-year-old enjoyed an 81-point season and registered at least one point in 53 of the 79 regular-season games that he played this season. He also had a point in four of five games in Florida’s first-round series against the Lightning. However, it’s been tougher sledding against the Maple Leafs.
Reinhart was held without a point in each of the first two games of the Eastern Conference semifinals and only registered four shots on goal. He finally broke through with a goal and an assist in the Game 3 win on Friday, but the model is expecting both teams to settle in defensively after combining for 25 goals the first three games. The model predicts 0.3 points on average for Reinhart and DraftKings is offering the best price.
Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots on goal (-142)
Tkachuk scored 57 points in 52 games this season and averaged 3.0 shots on goal per game during the regular season, but his shooting frequency has been down in the 2025 NHL Playoffs. He’s only registered 12 shots on goal in eight games, but that likely has to change with Florida fighting it’s way out of a corner.
After playing limited minutes while working his way back from an injury against the Lightning, Tkachuk played a playoff-high 21:30 in Friday’s win over Toronto and his 30 shifts were his most of the season altogether. More ice time should inevitably mean more shots on goal for such a consistent offensive threat and the model is predicting he averages 3.5 shots on goal on Sunday. Again it’s DraftKings offering the best NHL player prop odds here.
Want more NHL picks for Monday? Matt Severance is SportsLine’s No. 1 NHL expert, going 142-67-8 in his last 217 NHL sides, returning $3,830 for $100 players. You can find all of his NHL picks at SportsLine.
This news was originally published on this post .
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