NBA Playoffs picks, odds, schedule for Tuesday: Pacers try to close out Cavs, then Game 5 of Thunder-Nuggets

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Tuesday gives us two Game 5s with wholly different vibes. In Cleveland, things seem to be narrowly and furiously constricting around the top-seeded Cavaliers. The 64-win Cavs are suddenly hobbling around the brink, and the once-underdog Indiana Pacers now look comfortable with a 3-1 series lead. Tyrese Haliburton and crew try to close out in pursuit of their second-straight conference finals berth.

The second game is harder to get a read on. Oklahoma City put up one of the best regular seasons the NBA has ever seen, but the Thunder head home tied 2-2 with Nikola Jokić’s Denver Nuggets. Game 1 gave us the Edvard Munch face, Game 3 went to overtime and Game 4 was tense until the end.

Let’s see where the chips fall for another night of these awesome, confusing Playoffs.

Viewing guide for Tuesday

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Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5

Pacers lead series 3-1

Series odds: Pacers -325, Cavaliers +260

Did Kenny Atkinson draw a status ailment card or something? Donovan Mitchell left Game 4 after playing through a calf strain. He said he’ll be available on Tuesday. Evan Mobley (ankle), Darius Garland (toe) and De’Andre Hunter (thumb) have all missed parts of this series.

As it stands, the Cavs are getting beat by their own game plan. They were the owners of the regular season’s top-rated offense, prioritizing ball movement, perimeter flexibility and pacing with limited turnovers. It’s Indiana doing all that now, looking like the elite shot-makers, shooting 41.9 percent from 3-point range this series.

Bruised and flailing, the Cavs return home to try to force a Game 6. Mitchell looks overextended, averaging 34 points per game but shooting just 22 percent on 3s. Cleveland will need more from Garland. The Cavs have had a rebounding advantage and, in a pressurized and recently-unthinkable spot, they’ll take all the second-chance points they can get (or third/fourth when Mobley is at his best).

No matter the opponent, the Pacers are really cruising around these laps. Six different scorers are averaging between 13 and 18 points per game. Haliburton has 27 assists to six turnovers. Aaron Nesmith looks like Reggie Miller when the calendar flips to May and the whole squad has been carrying a vengeful edge since that overrated word made the rounds.

Indiana was stumped by the 3-2 zone in Game 3, then made the proper adjustments to exploit it come Game 4. A desperate opponent will throw desperate looks; even if something hits, the Pacers have shown that they can adjust for a potential Game 6.

This entire rotation was here for last year’s seismic semifinal run. Rick Carlisle has a ring, and he earned it from one of the toughest gauntlets ever.

Music matchup: Indiana has given us some all-time greats (Michael Jackson, John Mellencamp, Babyface), but Cleveland hosts the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. It would need Bone, Thugs AND Harmony to win a full series here.

Expert picks

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5

Series tied 2-2

Series odds: Thunder -625, Nuggets +450

The Nuggets know how to entertain us, that much is for certain. Their seven-game stunner with the LA Clippers gave us a lot to marvel at, and they’ve rekindled the dramatics against the winningest team in the league. Three of these first four games have been heart-racers, with Oklahoma City claiming the lone blowout (mega-blowout, if you will; a 149-106 score earned that).

No matter where this series goes, the public should appreciate what Denver is doing. A season that once looked lost to executive-suite turmoil and petty beef found redemption in Inglewood. The team is now showing resolve against the West’s clear-cut No. 1, limiting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander down the stretch and winning the clutch minutes with unshakable cool (Russell Westbrook is a celebratory yeller, fine, but these guys are a chill bunch overall).

Both MVP candidates have shown their usual brilliance, but neither look completely themselves. Gilgeous-Alexander was 0-for-5 behind the arc in Sunday’s Game 4 win and is below 22 percent there for the series. He’s still doing his thing — a tidy assist-to-turnover ratio, steady free-throw makes and good positional defense — and has been markedly better than Nikola Jokić. The three-time MVP finished below 40 percent from the floor in each of the last three games. He had seven turnovers in Denver’s Game 1 upset and eight more in the Game 3 win. The Thunder defense is a very complex storm in an arena-sized teacup.

OKC is in a good place considering its struggling supporting cast. Chet Holmgren has the starting lineup’s third-best shooting percentage at 39.6, which is not good. Jalen Williams, the very same 23-year-old All-Star we’ve come to know and appreciate this season, is languishing at just 37 percent. Lu Dort has dipped below 29.

These teams are squaring up and covering every inch of hardwood, a seesawing retort to the critics lazily decrying modern defense. Jokić, a player of near-unprecedented efficiency, seems particularly disoriented by OKC’s length and coverage. The Nuggets have clamps out, too, if you’re brave enough to revisit the aforementioned shooting splits of Dort, Holmgren and Williams. It’s not much of a stretch, but this swing game will be claimed by the better supplemental offense.

Music matchup: Philip Bailey was born and raised in Denver, and John Denver was famously fond of the Colorado capital. Oklahoma City itself has limited national stardom, but the state has all-time country hitmakers from Woody Guthrie to Reba McEntire. There’s also the Rodgers and Hammerstein musical “Oklahoma.” The choice is yours.

Expert picks

On this day (May 13) in NBA Playoffs history

2004 — Derek Fisher with 0.4 seconds left. From the New York Times‘ Chris Broussard:

“With fans standing a few feet away screaming, ”It ain’t good, it ain’t good,” three referees and a host of players gathered around a television monitor Thursday night at the SBC Center. One of the greatest finishes in National Basketball Association history, and perhaps the deciding moment in this Western Conference semifinal series, was at stake. For about a minute, the lead official, Danny Crawford, crouched and stared at the replay showing on the monitor. Then, ignoring the Spurs’ faithful nearby, he stood and yelled, ”The basket’s good,” giving the Los Angeles Lakers a miraculous 74-73 victory over the San Antonio Spurs.”

Betting/odds, ticketing and streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Jamal Murray and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)

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