Michael Jordan card prices are surpassing pandemic peaks — why now?

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There are many theories why the value of sports cards exploded during the pandemic but the fact itself is undeniable. The peak prices achieved then are viewed as an outlier, a bubble, something to be ignored when looking at the otherwise linear appreciation of vintage cards.

But four years after that market peak of early 2021, that’s not true for a subset of low-population cards of the long-retired athlete most identified with this period. These cards are now hitting new highs, surpassing even peak pandemic levels.

According to Bryan Denison, “Cajun Cardboard” on YouTube, a Michael Jordan card collector who closely tracks their values, the most recent Fanatics Collect auction saw multiple Jordan cards exceed or meet prior-highest-ever prices. Denison has a 41-part series on YouTube where he ranks Jordan cards based on “demand, aesthetics, scarcity and value.” His top tier of Jordan cards out of the 378 he assesses (you can see all four tiers listed out here) are mostly low population cards from the 1990s in high grades. This tier consists of 27 cards. While it includes  his iconic 1986-87 Fleer rookie card for its demand, Denison’s most heavily-weighted criteria, the card’s value is currently a fraction of its all-time high (last sale of a gem-mint PSA 10 grade example sold for $348,000 in April and the all-time high was $645,000 in February 2021) while others are soaring.

Top row: 1997 Metal Universe PMG Green #23 /10, 1997 Metal Universe PMG Red #23 /100* (Qty. 90), 1997 Metal Universe Championship PMG #23 /50, 1998 Metal Universe PMG #1 /50, 1998 Skybox Molten Metal Fusion Titanium #41 /40, 1997 E-X2001 Essential Credentials Now #9 /9, 1997 E-X2001 Essential Credentials Future #9 /72, 1998 UD Choice Starquest Gold #SQ30 /100, 1997 Finest Die-Cut Gold Embossed Refractor #154 /74

Middle row: 1998 Fleer Tradition Playmakers Theatre #9 /100, 1986 Fleer #57, 1997 Ultra Stars Gold #1, 1998 Hoops Slam Bams #1 /100, 1984 Star #101, 1997 Skybox Premium Team Skybox Star Rubies #235 /50, 1997 Skybox Premium Star Rubies #29 /50, 1998 Skybox Premium Star Rubies #23 /50, 1997 SPx Grand Finale #6 /50

Bottom row: 1997 E-X2001 Jambalaya #6, 1997 Flair Showcase Row 0 Legacy Collection #1 /100, 1997 Flair Showcase Row 1 Legacy Collection #1 /100, 1997 Flair Showcase Row 2 Legacy Collection #1 /100, 1997 Flair Showcase Row 3 Legacy Collection #1 /100, 1996 Flair Showcase Row 0 Legacy Collection #23 /150, 1996 Flair Showcase Row 1 Legacy Collection #23 /150, 1996 Flair Showcase Row 2 Legacy Collection #23 /150, 1998 NBA Hoops Starting Five #23 /5

It was that Jordan rookie card that became the symbol of the exploding sports card hobby during the pandemic. The combination of a housebound nation and the suspension of sports made his “The Last Dance” docuseries a phenomenon. During its 10-episode run that spanned five weeks, “The Last Dance” became the most viewed documentary in ESPN history. Then it transferred to Netflix, attracting nearly 24 million more international viewers. It turned out that many wanted to cap the experience by spending some of the money they saved by not being able to do anything or go anywhere on Jordan cards, particularly targeting his rookie card, a category long regarded as the best investment among buyers. 

“Cards actually entered a boom in 2018,” Denison said. “At least what anyone in their right mind would consider a boom. Then the pandemic scared everyone (in the hobby) — we thought cards would go down. But they went up. … Then the Jordan doc hits and creates a wave of nostalgia and a massive increase in demand early in 2021. 

“But it was uneducated, FOMO (fear of missing out), unsophisticated. People ignored the fundamentals of card populations and what was certain to happen once grading got back online. There were thousands and thousands of cards that were going to be added to (graded) populations. So it was inorganic growth. You can say the supply was unknown but savvy people knew. Remember, 95 percent of cards in the hobby don’t matter at all. Only five percent do. And for the five percent of cards, the so-called pandemic peak will prove to be just a speed bump.”

The Jordan rookie, according to Denison, is too common to meet all of his top-tier criteria. According to CardLadder, which tracks trading card prices and populations, there are more than 47,000 graded examples of that card. That includes over 900 in gem mint condition. Denison said he sold his perfect Jordan rookie during the peak and put all that money into other Jordan cards in lower populations that were being largely ignored by newbie investors, “big-money fund managers and rich people” who he says “knew nothing about this market.”

As iconic as the Jordan rookie card remains in the hobby, it’s been mired in a post-peak malaise, relatively speaking. A PSA 8 (NM-MT on a scale of 1-to-10) sells for about $8,000-to-$9,000 now, according to CardLadder, far off its pandemic high of $20,000. Even if you ignore the top of the market that spiked dramatically and quickly retreated over a period of just a few months, your five-year return on investment on a Jordan rookie card is only about 30 percent. The S&P 500 has doubled in value in the same period.

But contrast that to Denison’s rarities, which are at least matching and often selling well above prior highs. In a recent video, he highlighted eight cards, including a Jordan 1997 Flair Showcase Legacy Row Two numbered to 100 in PSA 8 condition, a 1996 Topps Mystery Finest Borderless Refractor and a widely issued 1992 Upper Deck McDonald’s Hologram that’s very hard to find in gem mint condition due to printing issues. Denison used historic prices to illustrate how all reached new highs, with the Topps Mystery selling for over four times more than its previous top sale. 

Savvy buyers are embracing the fundamentals of supply and demand. 

“With the way modern cards are trending, people are going for true rare and scarce,” said Juho Whang, a New Jersey-based collector/investor who also sets up occasionally at shows. “I collect Jordans. Focusing on scarcity is the way to go — 1990s playing days in a Bulls’ uniform in low population and in high grade.” Whang warns that you need pretty deep pockets to pursue these cards at current prices, which are well into the four figures at a minimum.

Whang added that he has an 8.5 BVG (Beckett graded) rookie Jordan and that the card had been worth as much as $17,000. But it’s now worth about half that. If you ignore the very brief pandemic-fueled period where the card could have fetched that top amount, Whang said the card is “basically keeping up with inflation.” 

Denison has his Top 10 Jordan cards listed on the Fanatics Collect website. 

They are not listed in order. When pushed to pick a top five in order of expected return, he listed the 1997 Metal Universe Precious Metal Gems at the top (the Red, Championship and Green), 1997 SPx Grand Finale, and 1997 Skybox Premium Star Rubies. All of those cards had print runs of 100 or less.

Denison and Whang agree these are old-school concepts rooted in the vintage, ‘50s and ‘60s era where the supply of cards is a paramount consideration. Back then, parents created scarcity by throwing children’s cards away every year. For the past 30 years or so, that scarcity has been manufactured into the products. But sometimes it’s due to the rarity of a common card in high grade.  

Jordan’s popularity is expected to endure. He is still consistently the most searched athlete across all sports on eBay every month, beating out the hottest stars of today. His brand and especially his sneakers keeps him relevant to new generations, and it was recently announced that he’ll be joining the NBA coverage on NBC as a special contributor. He’s widely considered to be at that Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle level of transcendent sports superstardom that will never fade in the eyes of the public.

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(Top photo: VALERIE MACON/AFP via Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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