Why Fantasy managers should expect a Patrick Mahomes rebound despite conservative passing props at sportsbooks

The 2025 NFL season is still months away, but with the 2025 NFL Draft and free agency all but wrapped up, we have all the information we’ll need on how each team’s roster is shaping up. The Kansas City Chiefs came up short in the Super Bowl, but have since added pieces at wide receiver and on the offensive line this offseason to bolster the pass game.

That sounds like great news for any Fantasy managers looking to invest in Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes this season. Mahomes started his career with a bang, topping 4,700 yards and throwing at least 37 touchdowns in four of his first five seasons as starter. That has made him a permanent fixture near the top of Fantasy football rankings at quarterback, but owners who invested a high pick in Mahomes have been underwhelmed the last two seasons.

In 2024, Mahomes just failed to top 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career after sitting out one game while matching his seven-year low of 26 passing touchdowns (set in a season where he played just 14 games). His per-game stats left him just short of 20 Fantasy points per game and outside of the top 10 at quarterback behind such luminaries as Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, and, most surprisingly, Bo Nix, the Broncos rookie who was the sixth quarterback off the board last April in the actual NFL Draft.

But if you believe in a Mahomes rebound as I do, there is potential to invest at this low point not just in Fantasy, but also in the betting market. On FanDuel Sportsbook, the early odds are out for player props and there’s a juicy one on the board for Mahomes. You can grab Mahomes to top 4,000 passing yards at -115 — near even odds — for the 2025 season. This is a wager I’m jumping out of my seat to get my hands on, so let’s break down why.

For starters, Mahomes has topped 4,000 passing yards every season but one in his career. The only time he didn’t top 4,000 was this past season and he fell short by just 63 passing yards. Mahomes played in just 16 games and would’ve otherwise topped this line. In his first three seasons as the Chiefs starter, and before the NFL switched to a 17-game season, Mahomes never dipped below 4,000 passing yards and even threw for 5,000+ in 2018. Mahomes had another 5,000+ passing season in 2022.

While losing offensive lineman Joe Thuney will take away from an offensive line that was exposed in the Super Bowl against the Eagles, the Chiefs have since signed free agent tackle Jaylon Moore and used their first-round draft pick on Ohio State offensive tackle prospect Josh Simmons. Many who study the draft at length — myself included — believe Simmons was the best tackle prospect in the class and would’ve been a top-15 pick overall if not for the injury he suffered early in the Buckeyes 2024 campaign. 

More importantly, the Chiefs’ passing game options are better than anything Mahomes has had since the team traded away Tyreek Hill. Last year’s first-round pick Xavier Worthy played his best football at the end of the season once he felt more comfortable in Andy Reid’s complicated scheme. He is primed for a breakout as a sophomore now that he can play faster within the scheme. The Chiefs return Rashee Rice from injury and Marquise Brown also re-signed. Both Rice and Brown barely played in 2024 and never got to play together.

Mahomes is an excellent bet to top this passing prop, but he’s also in prime position to top his consensus Fantasy rankings. In our initial post-2025 NFL Draft rankings, all three of Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings had Mahomes ranked outside of their top-five overall at the QB position. His consensus QB6 ranking is the lowest it’s been since his breakout 2017 season. This is the cheapest price you’ll have to pay in your 2025 Fantasy drafts since Mahomes became the starter.

Mahomes has started seven seasons in the NFL and just once came a mere 62 yards short of topping 4,000 yards. If he stays healthy all season, this is one of those props that might be wrapped up before January.