The running back position is the one where projections diverge the most from the rankings. There are several reasons for this, but the primary one is projected volume. At the top of the projections below you will see veterans ranked higher than I would draft them That’s because they have good projectable volume due to their past history but also carry more risk due to their age. At the bottom of the projections you will see handcuff options projected lower than I will rank them. That’s because if the starter stays healthy those handcuffs won’t score much, but some have league winning upside if the starter gets hurt. The middle of the projections are even more difficult, particularly for teams with established backs who just drafted rookies.
The most obvious case of this problem is in Los Angeles. The Chargers spent a first round pick on Omarion Hampton after adding Najee Harris in free agency. This creates a high degree of uncertainty in season-long projections. As of May 14th I am projecting Harris to begin the year as the lead back with Hampton taking over around midseason. This leads to a projection of 217 touches for Hampton and 204 for Harris, and both being projected outside the top 30 backs.
Because of his upside and the potential that he wins the job earlier than I am projecting, I move Hampton up to RB25 in the rankings, directly behind TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey, and Quinshon Judkins. While I may prefer Hampton over some of those backs in Dynasty, I am more concerned about Harris than the competition those other rookies face in Year 1. Most notably, I am worried the veteran Harris has a longer leash in short yardage and passing downs, the most impactful touches for running backs in Fantasy Football.
Of course, it is still only May. There will still be plenty of news that impacts these projections in the coming months. If we get word that Hampton is functioning as the 1A to open the year, he’ll move past all the rookies, possibly into the top 15. On that note, one other thing that could change a couple of backfields is whenever Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins find new teams. Because they are free agents, you won’t find them in the projections below, but they could make a big impact if they land somewhere like Chicago or Dallas. Stay tuned.
Here are my post-draft Running Back Projections:
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