The Thursday MLB schedule is light with only six games on the slate. One of the most notable matchups of the day is Rangers vs. Astros in a rivalry game at 8:05 p.m. ET. This game projects to be a pitching duel with Hunter Brown (6-1, 1.48 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) starting for Houston and Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) on the mound for the Rangers. The rubber match of this series will be played at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
The Rangers are -131 favorites (risk $131 to win $100) on the money line, while the over/under is 7 runs in the latest MLB odds for Thursday. Should you back the Astros or Rangers when making MLB picks on Thursday? Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlay cards, you’ll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 8 of the 2025 MLB season on a 12-8 run (60%) on top-rated MLB money-line betting picks. The model cashed its MLB parlay on Wednesday for a massive 9-1 payout. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
The model has broken down the MLB odds for Thursday and just revealed its top picks and MLB player props. Combining the model’s three picks into an MLB parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook would result in a payout of +754 (risk $100 to win $754). Now, here are its best bets for the MLB slate on Thursday:
Rangers-Astros over 7 runs (-110)
The model has this game going over on the run total, despite both teams slated to have outstanding starting pitchers on the mound. Hunter Brown (6-1, 1.48 ERA) is getting the start for Houston, while Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.72 ERA) is expected to start for the Rangers. Nonetheless, the model is projecting 8.9 total runs in this game, with the over hitting in 63.5% of computer simulations.
Shohei Ohtani to hit 1+ home runs vs. Oakland Athletics (+155)
Ohtani is a threat to leave the yard every time he steps into the batter’s box. He hit his 13th home run of the season on the first pitch of the bottom of the first inning in the Dodgers‘ win over Oakland on Wednesday. SportsLine’s model is projecting Ohtani to finish with another strong stat line — 1.16 hits and 2.35 total bases against the A’s on Thursday.
Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5) on the run line vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-135)
These teams split the first two games of their current series, with the Rays winning 11-9 on Tuesday and the Blue Jays winning 3-1 on Wednesday. Zack Littell (2-5, 4.40 ERA) is slated to start for Tampa Bay, while veteran Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.97 ERA) is the projected starter for Toronto. SportsLine’s model is projecting a final score of 4.2-4.1 in Toronto’s favor, with the Rays covering in 67.5% of computer simulations.
Combine these picks for a shot at a +754 payout. Bet it now at DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets instantly when you wager $5.
Want more MLB picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s MLB best bets for Thursday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top MLB picks from expert Matt Severance, who’s on a sizzling 110-51 roll on his last 161 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 23 units.
This news was originally published on this post .
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