Analyzing the Preakness 2025 field: Favorites, contenders and long shots

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After last year’s Kentucky Derby, winning trainer Ken McPeek initially said he wasn’t sure if he’d send Mystik Dan to run in the Preakness. Within days, McPeek made up his mind, and, to no one’s surprise, Mystik Dan shipped to Pimlico, running a distant second to Seize the Grey. In three Grade 1 races since then, Mystik hasn’t finished better than sixth; he was second by a nose in a modest stakes race at Oaklawn Park. Mystik Dan may be the latest in a long line of Kentucky Derby runners who have never won another race. Going back to 2000, only nine Derby winners entered the winner’s circle after wearing the blanket of roses.

But Bill Mott is not Ken McPeek, a “go big or go home” kind of trainer who likes to take a shot with a horse. Mott is conservative, and when, right after the race, he expressed reservations about running Sovereignty in Baltimore, the writing was pretty much on the wall. To the surprise of a few and the dismay of many, Mott elected to ship the Derby winner back to his Saratoga Springs base to train for the Belmont Stakes on June 7.

The horse racing chatterati were outraged, declaring that Mott had a responsibility to run a sound horse back in two weeks, to take advantage of the only time of year that the general public pays any attention to horse racing. The lack of the Derby winner may well sting attendance and handle at the Preakness, but neither Mott nor owners Godolphin are under any obligation to go for a Triple Crown, and I commend them for making the decision in the interest of their horse and potential racing targets down the road.

So enough about the horse not running on Saturday at Pimlico; let’s talk about the nine horses who are, including Derby runner-up and post-time favorite Journalism and Derby runners American Promise (16th) and Sandman (7th, my pick, alas).

It’s a gray, wet week in Baltimore, with showers and thunderstorms possible every day; Saturday looks to be mostly sunny, but they said that about Derby day, too, and that was a sodden mess.

Here’s a look at the field in order of post position. Wishing good luck and safe trips to all.

1. Goal Oriented

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan
Sire: Not This Time
Dam: Bizzy Caroline
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Morning line odds: 6-1

Baffert leads the list of Preakness-winning trainers with eight victories, and while lightly raced, this runner has a chance to bring him his ninth. He’s raced only twice, winning both times, once from off the pace and once on the lead, once on a fast track and once on a sloppy one. The Brisnet speed figure in his last race definitely puts him in the mix, and while his lack of experience is off-putting, I’m not tossing this one.

2. Journalism

Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Robert LaPenta, Elayne Stables 5, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith
Sire: Curlin (winner of the 2007 Preakness, two-time Horse of the Year)
Dam: Mopotism
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Morning line odds: 8-5

One of the big questions for Journalism going into the Derby was how he would handle a sloppy track, and he answered that question with a “Just fine, thank you,” finishing second by a length and a half. His speed figures tower over those of most of his rivals, and it would seem that the race is his to lose.

3. American Promise

Owner: BC Stables
Sire: Justify (winner of the 2018 Triple Crown)
Dam: Tapella
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Morning line odds: 15-1

I wrote this horse off in my Derby preview for a variety of reasons (poor performance in graded stakes races, early speed in a race loaded with it), and after a 16th-place finish two weeks ago, I’m not inclined to change my opinion. Of course, he’s racing here against eight other horses, not 18, and Lukas has won this race seven times. To paraphrase: You want to root for a story and for Lukas to get his eighth Preakness win? Wager lightly.

4. Heart of Honor

Owner: Jim and Claire Limited
Sire: Honor A.P.
Dam: Ruby Love
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Morning line odds: 12-1

This colt ships in from the UAE, where he’s been since December, with English trainer Osborne. In six lifetime races, he’s never finished worse than second, including a nose loss in the Group 2 UAE Derby. There’s no doubt that he’s talented, but the ship from overseas always makes me uneasy. There’s a great story if he wins, as Osborne’s daughter Saffie will be in the saddle. While I won’t be betting him to win, he could be useful underneath in vertical exotics (exactas & trifectas).

5. Pay Billy

Owner: RKTN Racing
Sire: Improbable
Dam: Harlington’s Rose
Trainer: Michael Gorham
Jockey: Raul Mena
Morning line odds: 20-1

Pay Billy is a local horse based at Delaware Park and will likely have a big rooting section on Saturday. He won the local Preakness prep, the April 19 Federico Tesio. He’s never run in a graded stakes race, and he likes to race on the lead but is slower on paper than his competitors here. It’s another good story, but not one I’ll be backing with wagering dollars.

6. River Thames

Owner: WinStar Farm, CHC, Pantofel Stable, Wachtel Stable
Sire: Maclean’s Music
Dam: Proportionality
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Morning line odds: 9-2

Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice and the Belmont Stakes four times, but his Hall of Fame résumé lacks this second leg of the Triple Crown. The horse’s résumé is not quite as impressive; no graded stakes wins, but two close-up finishes in the Grade 1 Blue Grass and Grade 2 Fountain of Youth earlier this year suggest that he’ll be competitive here. His speed figures lag behind those of several of his rivals, but he’ll be on my tickets, and I think he has a shot to bring Pletcher his first Woodlawn Vase.

7. Sandman

Owner: D.J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, CJ Stables
Sire: Tapit (one of the top sires in the country; he’s yet to get a Derby or Preakness winner, but he has sired four winners of the Belmont Stakes)
Dam: Distorted Music
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: John Velazquez
Morning line odds: 4-1

My Derby pick ended up finishing seventh, but I’m not losing faith in this $1.2 million two-year-old purchase. He’s a closer in a race loaded with speed, so the Preakness could set up well for him, and he’s got a new jockey because José Ortiz, who’s been in the saddle for the colt’s last two races, was already committed to Clever Again, so Hall of Famer Velazquez, who won this race two years ago, gets the call. Casse is going for his third Preakness win, and Sandman looms a contender, but give him a pass if the track comes up wet.

8. Clever Again

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith
Sire: American Pharoah (2015 Triple Crown winner)
Dam: Flattering
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: José Ortiz
Morning line odds: 5-1

Clever Again is a consistent colt who has two wins and a second in three lifetime starts, cost half a million dollars in 2023 and boasts world-class connections in his trainer, owners and jockey. He’s another who will want the lead, and this is his first start since the end of March. He’s never run in a graded stakes race, much less won one, and I don’t think he’s fast enough to tangle with these. Look for him in some of the big summer races for 3-year-olds.

9. Gosger

Owner: Harvey A. Clarke Racing Stables
Sire: Nyquist (2016 Kentucky Derby winner)
Dam: Gloria S
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Luis Saez
Morning line odds: 20-1

Like the colt who will break right next to him, he’s got two wins in three starts, including a last-out win in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. He can come from off the pace, which could be useful here, but his speed figures put him several notches below the others.

(Photo of Sandman warming up for the Kentucky Derby: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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