The NBA playoffs have been filled with drama and surprises through two rounds. However, the odds are saying it would be a shock if the Oklahoma City Thunder did not win the title at this point. Oklahoma City is a strong -175 favorite to win it all on BetMGM.
The Thunder were pushed to a Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets in the second round, but the Nuggets were not at full strength with Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. playing through injuries. With the 2023 champs eliminated, the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference out and the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds gone in the Western Conference, Oklahoma City is the clear favorite to win its first NBA title.
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The New York Knicks are the second-favorite, but with relatively long odds at +450. Then, Anthony Edwards’ Minnesota Timberwolves come in at +600. The Indiana Pacers are the longest shot remaining at +800.
2025 NBA champion odds
Three of the four teams left have never won an NBA title. The Knicks last won one in 1973.
The conference finals start Tuesday with the Thunder hosting the Timberwolves in Game 1. Not only are the Thunder heavily favored to win the series (-350), but the odds say it is more likely the series ends in five games than seven.
The two teams split four meetings in the regular season. Three of those meetings took place within less than two weeks on both sides of the All-Star break.
In the Eastern Conference, the No. 3 seed Knicks start with home-court advantage against the No. 4 Indiana Pacers. It’s the first time since 2021 that neither of the top two seeds made it to the Eastern Conference finals. That year, No. 3 Milwaukee beat No. 5 Atlanta and later won the NBA Finals against Phoenix.
The Pacers return to the Eastern Conference finals after getting swept by eventual champion Boston in that round last year. The Knicks are favored to win the series (-155), but Indiana is far from a long shot at +130. The Knicks won two of the three regular-season meetings, although two of those (a win and a loss) were back in the first month of the season.
SGA clear NBA Finals MVP favorite
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić went head-to-head in the playoffs, and NBA fans have been debating which of the two should win the regular-season MVP. With SGA’s Thunder getting past Jokić’s Nuggets, there is no debate who the clear favorite to win Finals MVP is. Gilgeous-Alexander is -160 on BetMGM to be named Finals MVP.
That, of course, is correlated with the Thunder’s title odds. The lead guns of the other contenders align with their team’s title odds as well. New York’s Jalen Brunson is +500, Anthony Edwards is +750 and Tyrese Haliburton is +1000.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Joshua Gateley / Getty Images)
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