Tottenham vs. Man United: Who has the edge in Europa League final as Spurs, Red Devils battle for UCL spot?

Wednesday’s UEFA Europa League final is the first of several European club finals that will take place over the next two weeks, and perhaps the most peculiar as England’s 16th and 17th best teams – Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, respectively – target a major piece of silverware that would do away with some of the woes of the season.

This will be the fourth and final time these two face each other during this campaign, with this series tilting very much in Spurs’ favor so far. Ange Postecoglou’s side have three wins against the Red Devils so far this season, outscoring them 8-3 along the way. The context of Wednesday’s match is different than the ones that came before it, though, and not only because of the unpredictability of a one-off game with a trophy on the line. Both Postecoglou and his counterpart at United, Ruben Amorim, may have to make team selections with a limited squad, adding a layer of tactical intrigue to the final.

Spurs will be without key players like James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski, while it’s unclear what role Matthijs de Ligt and Leny Yoro can play, if any, on Wednesday for United. Any combination of these absences seem likely to play a role in how the final eventually shakes out and forces big questions about which team truly has the edge in each area of the pitch.

Ahead of the Europa League final, here’s how Spurs and United compare in each position.

How to watch Europa League final, odds

• Date: Wednesday, May 21 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: San Mames Stadium — Bilbao, Spain
• TV: CBS Sports Network | Live stream: Paramount+
• Odds: Tottenham Hotspur +190; Draw +220; Manchester United +140

Goalkeeper: Tottenham Hotspur

It has not exactly been a banner year for either Spurs’ Guglielmo Vicario or United’s Andre Onana, though that is mostly because neither team has been particularly effective at the back, a problem bigger than either goalkeeper. In line with the resemblances of both teams’ unimpressive seasons, the statistics show that Vicario and Onana had similar output this campaign, with few clean sheets and a limited number of saves to speak of. That said, the edge, however slight, is Vicario’s – he was a little bit better than Onana in several categories like expected goals against (an average of 1.3 per game across all competitions for Vicario, 1.4 for Onana) and save percentage (68.3% for Vicario, 67% for Onana). Plus, Onana has been error-prone at times, so much so that Amorim dropped the goalkeeper in between the semifinal legs against Lyon.

Defenders: Tottenham Hotspur

The answer to this prompt rests completely on injury reports and the good news for Spurs is that, at least in this category, they will be at full fitness. Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven are foundational to Spurs’ success, so much so that the team’s downward turn can truly be attributed to their lengthy injuries. The pair have only played 18 games together this season, but the results speak for themselves – with Romero and van de Ven, Tottenham average 1.07 expected goals against and concede 1.17 goals per game. Without them, the expected goals against goes up to 1.64 per game and they concede 1.47 goals. Combined with talented wingbacks like Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie, the back line offers a lot of hope for Spurs heading into the final.

United, by comparison, have a lot of work to do in this category. De Ligt is their best defender but he has been nursing different injuries over the last few weeks and time will tell if he can play on Wednesday, and the same goes for Yoro. That leaves United with a rag-tag team at the back that includes Harry Maguire and Victor Lindelof, which does not inspire confidence. Patrick Dorgu is a promising addition at left wingback but he has not reached his full potential just yet in the early months of his spell at United.

Midfielders: Manchester United

The center of the park really exemplifies the Europa League finalists’ stories this season – Spurs arrive in Bilbao understaffed in this category, while the Red Devils are not well-staffed. Tottenham will be without Maddison, perhaps their most important (and only) passer, while Kulusevski will also miss out after a quietly strong season and the same goes for rising talent Lucas Bergvall. Postecoglou will be left with like-minded players in Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur while also potentially sweating on the fitness of Pape Matar Sarr. The manager may find unique roles for Wilson Odobert and Mikey Moore, as he did on Friday in their 2-0 loss at Aston Villa, but how he solves his midfield problems is a big question for the final.

The edge, by default, might be United’s. Their midfield has long been a problem, with Casemiro still earning minutes despite being past his prime and Manuel Ugarte doing whatever he can to make up the difference in a job that’s too big for one person. Bruno Fernandes has managed to carry his team on his back time and time again, so much so that he has asked his teammates to “step up” and shoulder some of the burden. How quickly they can live up to his demand is a question mark but Fernandes is likely prepared to do it himself on Wednesday, whether or not his teammates show up.

Forwards: Tottenham Hotspur

It has been a peculiar season for Tottenham, in large part because one thing is still working fairly well – their attack. They rank sixth in the Premier League for goals and are inside the league’s top half for shots, shots on goal and expected goals. Their goals have come from a wide range of players, too, with five players scoring 10-plus goals across all competitions this season. That list includes Maddison and Kulusevski, who will not play on Wednesday, but Brenna Johnson surprisingly leads their goalscoring charts with 17 this season and Dominic Solanke has a respectable 15 in his first season at the club. Captain Son Heung-min has also had a quietly solid season with 11 goals and has 11 assists to go along with it.

It is in stark contrast to the Red Devils, who are 16th in the Premier League for goals and are in the bottom half in most attacking categories. United’s struggle to sign an impactful goalscorer looms large here, especially since just three players not named Fernandes have 10-plus goals – Alejandro Garnacho, Rasmus Hojlund and Amad Diallo. That is not to suggest that they will not show up on the day, especially since each has delivered in a big moment or two this season. There are enough examples of them not meeting the mark, though, to raise concerns about their ability to perform on Wednesday.