Thunder-Wolves, Knicks-Pacers: Biggest questions and predictions for NBA’s conference finals matchups

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The NBA conference finals are here: Knicks-Pacers in the East, and Thunder-Wolves in the West. What are the biggest questions in each series? Which star guard will prove most important to their team’s success? And who will ultimately advance to the NBA Finals? Our writers weigh in.

What’s the biggest question in the East finals?

Vincent Goodwill: Can the Knicks slow down the Pacers? The Knicks were built to beat the Celtics, acquiring Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns in an attempt to negate Boston’s advantages. But the Pacers are a different animal. Their offense has improved from their regular-season efficiency, which was pretty damn good to begin with. This is not supposed to happen, the history of the playoffs tells us so. They spread you out, then gut you. Can Towns keep up with Myles Turner? That feels like Indy’s ace in the hole.

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Tom Haberstroh: Can the Pacers continue to shoot like a team full of Reggie Millers? The Pacers are the only team this postseason to collectively shoot over 50 percent from the floor. They’re also the only team this postseason to shoot more than 40 percent from deep. At this point, they’re on, well, pace to become the best shooting team in postseason history. The Knicks, after stymieing the vaunted Celtics offense, will have a lot to say about that.

Dan Titus: Can KAT elevate his game? He hasn’t been consistent in the postseason, but has historically performed well against the Pacers, averaging 27.8 points per game in regular-season matchups — the highest average against any team he’s faced at least twice. For the Knicks to withstand the Pacers’ depth, Bodega KAT needs to hold down the block and get shots up from the perimeter while avoiding foul trouble. His performance will be the true X-factor for the series.

Ben Rohrbach: Can the Knicks play to their tempo? They want to grind out games and get them to the clutch, where Jalen Brunson and Co. thrive. The Pacers have excelled in crunch time, too, but they prefer to play fast, get into their actions early and give themselves as many opportunities to score as possible. Only the Thunder have played faster through two rounds of the playoffs, and no team has been so efficient, which is why Indiana carries the best offensive rating of any roster left in the conference finals.

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Dan Devine: Who leads the dance? The numbers and eye test both tell you that Indiana wants to play faster than New York does. The same holds true within possessions, too. Tyrese Haliburton’s Pacers attack early, string together actions, and continue applying pressure the full width of the court with all five players. If New York’s weaker-link defenders — Brunson and especially Towns — aren’t up for it, Indiana could be off to the races. The Knicks, conversely, operate much more deliberately, wielding Brunson’s isolations, Towns’ drives and Josh Hart’s forays to the paint like brute-force battering rams to create enough space to bury you. If Indiana can’t manage that physicality, New York’s chances improve dramatically.

(An X-factor to watch here: Knicks center Mitchell Robinson. The Pacers were 18th in defensive rebounding rate during the regular season, and that rate’s gone down a tick in the playoffs; the Knicks are grabbing 39.3% of their own misses in the postseason with Robinson on the floor, a rate that would lead the NBA every year. One pretty good way to keep a team from getting out and running? Making sure they can’t get the ball.)

[Eastern Conference finals preview, schedule and key matchups]

What’s the biggest question in the West finals?

Haberstroh: Can Julius Randle keep this up? Randle has elevated his game to bonafide star level in this postseason, averaging 23.9 points and 5.9 assists with surgical efficiency for his new squad. A skeptic (guilty!) might point out that he feasted on small-ball defenses in Los Angeles and Golden State. With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein in the paint and a thicket of swiping arms, Randle’s bullyball might not fare so well against the NBA’s top defensive outfit.

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Titus: Julius Randle. He’s been the most consistent player for the Wolves in the playoffs and he is on a crazy run of silencing doubters. He’s shooting over 50% from the field and 35% from 3 while being the Wolves’ secondary playmaker through two rounds. His talent is undeniable, but can he continue bullying the best defensive test of the postseason? Don’t even get me started on the reserve bench depth battle between Alex Caruso and Donte DiVincenzo. Both have championship experience and understand how to impact games through scoring, defense, and leadership. Any outlier performance from role players like them, Jaden McDaniels, or Chet Holmgren could swing a game, or even the series, in their team’s favor.

Goodwill: I’ll make it three in a row. If Julius Randle keeps this up, he should go on a full apology tour, sitting on a throne and listening to all of us cop pleas on our initial and longstanding thoughts about his fit with this team. He’s been an ideal Robin to Anthony Edwards, he’s been tough and efficient and stable. His catch-and-shoot willingness is even better than his numbers, and now he may feast on Chet Holmgren after putting his shoulder into the chests of LeBron James and Draymond Green. The Wolves have been unstoppable since Randle came back from injury. If that trend continues …

Devine: I’ll join the choir and go with Randle. After a grim postseason tenure in New York — one bad series against the Hawks in 2021, followed by a 2023 run dampened by injury and a 2024 run completely scuttled by injury — and after the Knicks sent him away in the blockbuster deal to bring Towns to Manhattan, seeing a fully healthy and in-rhythm Randle thrive has been one of the best stories of these playoffs. And now he runs into not only the best defense in the NBA, but one of the best that the league has seen in decades.

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Can Randle make Oklahoma City pay for all the extra attention it’ll devote to slowing down Anthony Edwards? If he draws Isaiah Hartenstein as his defensive matchup, can he punish the Thunder center on the perimeter? If OKC slots a smaller defender onto him — likely Jalen Williams — can he bully-ball his way into good looks in the paint, or into drawing a second defender to open up kickout passes to the Wolves’ shooters? Can he continue to limit his turnovers against the NBA’s premier mistake-creating defense? If he can, the Wolves might have a real shot to pull the upset.

Rohrbach: How does Anthony Edwards handle Oklahoma City’s pressure? He was openly frustrated by double teams earlier in the season, and the Thunder can make you feel like you are being double-teamed, even when you are not. They have that many high-level perimeter defenders. Can Edwards succeed in one-on-one situations, draw help and create advantages for Julius Randle. And vice versa. Those two have to be as in sync as they have been, if not more, for Minnesota to have a shot at winning the series.

[Western Conference finals preview, schedule and key matchups]

Which conference finals star is most crucial to his team’s success?

Titus: Jalen Brunson. The NBA’s clutch player of the year has been one of the most reliable closers this season. He’s primed with experience and opportunity, especially in late-game situations. Can he rewrite Knicks history as the first squad to reach the Finals since 2000? It’ll be a tough challenge, but it’s looking up.

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Haberstroh: Jalen Brunson. He’s leading all players with 114 points in the fourth quarter this postseason. To put that towering figure in perspective, Anthony Edwards ranks second in the league with SEVENTY-SIX. The Knicks’ offense burns on Brunson, methodically chewing up the clock and routinely finding daylight in the tiniest of pockets. The Knicks learned last postseason against the Pacers what happens if he’s not 100 percent healthy.

Goodwill: Anthony Edwards. It’s hard to see a scenario where Edwards dominates against the Oklahoma City swarming defense and the Timberwolves actually lose here. Not just good, but dominates. Because that means he gets Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in trouble and Jalen Williams and Lu Dort in that same space. He was gassed chasing Kyrie Irving around this time last year. Smart money says he’ll be more ready this time around, even if the Wolves don’t come away as winners.

Devine: Tyrese Haliburton. There’s no wrong answer here, but everything that makes the Pacers special offensively — their speed, their commitment to playing off the pass, their turnover avoidance, their shooting, their late-game daring, etc. — all flows directly from Haliburton’s unique skillset, his approach to the game, and the joy and swagger with which he plays.

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Andrew Nembhard gets to show off his playmaking chops and Aaron Nesmith gets to attack in space because Haliburton is getting face-guarded the full 94 feet. Pascal Siakam gets to cook on 4-on-3 odd-man rushes because teams want to trap Haliburton to get the ball out of his hands. Myles Turner feasts on pick-and-pop 3s and post-up mismatches because teams are desperate to find a way to keep Haliburton from undressing them. He is Indiana’s offensive system.

Rohrbach: Isn’t it interesting that each of the four teams left is led by a guard? But that is besides this point. The answer here is the most obvious one: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Remove him from the Thunder, and they are no longer the championship favorite. They are a team in need of the NBA’s MVP. Everything flows from him. The same could be said of Tyrese Haliburton or Jalen Brunson or Anthony Edwards, but none of them carries the weight of championship expectations the way Gilgeous-Alexander does now.

Who wins the West: Thunder or Timberwolves?

Rohrbach: Thunder in 6. I believe SGA will be the best player in the series, even if Edwards could be. I believe Oklahoma City is deeper with impact talent, even if Minnesota has a rock-solid eight-man rotation. And I believe in the Thunder as one of the greatest teams in NBA history, as their record and net rating would suggest, more than I believe in the team that boasts Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert.

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Goodwill: Thunder in 6. You wonder if the layoff is too much for the Timberwolves, while the Thunder are young enough to continue playing every other day without much atrophy. It feels like they don’t run out of good players and they have more answers than even Minnesota. You wonder if it’s the start of the Oklahoma City era in the West.

Devine: Thunder in 6. I have had Oklahoma City winning the title since October, and as fantastic as Minnesota’s been in dispatching the Lakers and Warriors, I’m sticking with it. The Thunder’s defense has been the dominant unit in the NBA all season, especially when it comes to forcing turnovers … which seems like trouble for a Wolves team that ranked 18th in team turnover rate during the regular season, and has coughed it up even more frequently (15.8% of their non-garbage-time possessions) through two rounds. I have more faith in OKC’s offense eking out enough points against Minnesota’s defense; in a short series, that’s enough.

Haberstroh: Thunder in 6. With a quick turnaround, the Thunder should get a lift playing their first two games at home. If Minnesota had home-court advantage, I might go the other way. The Wolves have played OKC really tough this season, but I see the Thunder’s relentless ability to force turnovers proving to be too much for Minnesota’s choppy offense.

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Titus: Timberwolves in 7. While the Thunder may have had the best regular season, the Timberwolves’ late-season surge indicates they’re peaking at the right time. This matchup is what many basketball fans yearned for, featuring two of the best players who have yet to be announced as the next faces of the league. We haven’t had a repeat winner in over 10 years, so prepare for parity.

Who wins the East: Knicks or Pacers?

Devine: Pacers in 6. I think the Knicks’ core group can reach a higher ceiling than Indiana’s, but I feel more confident in the Pacers consistently playing above their floor than I do in New York avoiding dips and lulls. If the version of the Knicks that showed up in the second half of Game 4 and for all of Game 6 against Boston is the one we get for this full series, then they’re going to the Finals. The second they slip up, though, Indiana will pounce … and that’s all it takes to lose home-court advantage, and with it, maybe, the series.

Titus: Knicks in 6. Man, it pains me that the Knicks are IT. I’ve been on the bandwagon since the beginning of the second round, and I can’t help but feel this is the year when Knicks loyalists are finally put out of their misery. It’s not that the Pacers aren’t equipped to win — it’s just that with home court going to the Knicks, they’ll take their momentum into winning the best-of-seven games.

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Haberstroh: Pacers in 6. The Pacers’ whirlwind offense will challenge Tom Thibodeau’s core defensive principles to its fullest extent. I don’t think the Knicks can get away with switching as much as they did against Boston, a team that didn’t like to move the ball. The Pacers are the most pass-happy playoff team since 2015 and destroyed the switch-happy Cavs with elite ball movement. The series will depend on how much the Knicks’ defense can bend without breaking.

Rohrbach: Knicks in 7. Everything points to Indiana’s advantages in this series, specifically on the offensive end, where they are a lethal combination of pace and efficiency. The Pacers made Cleveland’s more talented defense look ordinary. Imagine what they will do to Brunson and Towns. But we said the same about the Celtics. There is just something about this Knicks team, man. They fight until the end, and in the end they are at their best. I trust them more with my gut than I do the Pacers with my head.

Goodwill: Pacers in 7. Just because the Knicks are the great story doesn’t mean the Pacers are gonna lay down and play dead for the Knicks. Both teams beat depleted teams in the second round, so it’s fair to wonder how good each is. But the Pacers were tougher than Cleveland and that counts for something here. Tyrese Haliburton, this is your moment, in New York, in the Garden, one more time.

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