NFL owners set to vote on these changes at league meeting, plus five players with the most to prove in 2025

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! 

The NFL’s spring league meeting will officially get underway today in Minnesota, and no, the meeting is NOT being held at Mall of America. Sure, that’s where I would have put it if I were in charge of making decisions like that, but I’m not in charge, so it’s at some random, but super nice, hotel. 

In today’s newsletter, we’ll be breaking down the biggest rule changes the owners are expected to vote on at the meeting, plus we’ll be ranking the five players with the most to prove in 2025. 

As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown. 

1. NFL owners are meeting this week: Here’s what they’re expected to vote on

The NFL’s meeting in March is usually the biggest one of the year, but the league also holds a meeting in May where plenty of big decisions are made, and that will definitely be the case this year. 

The NFL’s 32 owners will be spending today and Wednesday in Minnesota. While they’re there, the group is expected to vote on these possible rule changes. 

Here’s what you need to know: 

• Playoff format could be changing. The NFL revealed the details of this proposal Monday night, and it looks a lot like what the Detroit Lions originally proposed in March. Under this proposal, seven teams in each conference will make the playoffs with four division champions and three wild-card teams. However, the big change is that the teams will be seeded by who has the best record. Under this proposal, a wild-card team could be seeded ahead of a division winner if the wild-card team has a better record. A wild card team could potentially earn the No. 2 seed under the this format. There’s also a chance that division winners could be playing road games in the wild-card round, which isn’t possible under the current format. If this proposal would have been in place in 2024, the NFC playoffs would have looked much different. (You can see what the proposed bracket would have looked like here.) We’ve got the full breakdown of the format here. 
• “Tush push” could be banned. The NFL owners decided not to vote on this in March, because the language in the rule proposal wasn’t clear. But now, the proposal has been slightly tweaked, and it seems there’s at least a chance that this could pass. From 1920 through 2005, the NFL had a rule in place that banned players from pushing or pulling a runner in any direction, and that’s essentially what his new proposal calls for. Teammates can no longer assist a runner except by “individually blocking opponents for him.” For the Eagles, this means no one can push the quarterback from behind after the ball is snapped, which is one of the key parts of the “tush push.”
• Onside kick might be tweaked. Under the current rules, a team can only attempt an onside kick in the fourth quarter, and even then, it can only attempt it if it is trailing. Under this proposal, a team could declare an onside kick at ANY POINT in a game as long as it is trailing. This proposal would also allow the players on the kicking team to line up one yard closer, which could give them a better chance to recover an onside kick. Under the current rule, every player on the kicking team — except the kicker — has to have their foot on the 34-yard line before an onside attempt, but now, they’ll be able to put their foot on the 35-yard line, which will put them three feet closer to possibly recovering the football. 
• NFL players will likely be allowed to participate in 2028 Olympics. The owners are expected to approve a resolution that will allow NFL players to participate in the Olympics. There had been some big questions about what would happen if a player got injured, but the league was able to answer those to the satisfaction of the owners, which will clear the path for players to participate. The biggest rule is that only one player per NFL team will be allowed to participate.  

For any of these rules to be implemented for the 2025 season, 24 of the NFL’s 32 owners would have to vote to approve the proposal. The owners weren’t interested in changing the playoff format or eliminating the “tush push” back in March, so it will be interesting to see if they change their mind.  

2. Players with the most to prove in 2025: Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence crack the list

There were quite a few hyped-up players who struggled last season, and now those players will be looking to bounce back with a huge year in 2025. With that in mind, Cody Benjamin took a look around the league and came up with a list of the five players who have the most to prove this year. 

Here are three players who made his list: 

• Dak Prescott: “Can he stay healthy after missing extensive time in three of his past five seasons? Can he keep George Pickens happy opposite CeeDee Lamb? Can he finally push Dallas deep into the playoffs under a new head coach in Brian Schottenheimer? The list goes on for such an accomplished veteran.”
• Trevor Lawerence: “The former No. 1 pick is already on his third coach, with almost as many career turnovers (68) as touchdown passes (69), entering Year 5 of a much-hyped career. The Jaguars need him not only to be more available — he’s played hurt and/or missed time for much of the past two years — but more savvy to finally capitalize on a weak division.”
• Bryce Young: “Young’s poise, when in peak form, is genuinely impressive. Still, as he embarks on Year 3, the ex-Alabama star probably needs another leap or two to consistently elevate a Carolina Panthers offense that’s still a pretty big projection of its own.”

Benjamin’s full list included a total of five players, and you can see all the names here. 

3. Rookie QB outlook: Best-case and worst-case scenario for each rookie QB 

Drafting a quarterback in the NFL is a total crapshoot. For every Patrick Mahomes, there’s a Zach Wilson. For every Joe Burrow, there’s a Trey Lance. The point here is that it’s almost impossible to say how a quarterback is going to pan out. 

So what will happen with this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks? Chris Trapasso attempted to answer that question by projecting a best-case scenario season and a worst-case scenario season for each signal-caller.

Let’s take a look at what he came up with: 

CAM WARD (Titans)

• Best-case scenario: 64% completion, 6.9 yards per attempt, 3,174 passing yards, 18 TD passes, 10 INTs, 32 sacks, 88.0 rating
• Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 5.9 yards per attempt, 2,714 passing yards, 11 TD passes, 11 INTs, 46 sacks, 73.0 rating
• Trapasso’s take: “I expect the Titans to be playing from behind often, thereby leading to clear-cut passing scenarios for the No. 1 overall pick. Ward proved his accuracy in his final three seasons at the collegiate level, and despite what is still one of the least-imposing receiver group in the NFL, his propensity to stretch the field and make the occasional off-structure play led to reasonably high best-case scenario figures. I can’t envision Ward completely tanking in Year 1, yet the environment in Tennessee may very well hold him back as a rookie.”

JAXSON DART (Giants)

• Best-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.2 yards per attempt, 2,520 passing yards, 16 TD passes, 7 INTs, 28 sacks, 93.2 rating
• Worst-case scenario: 59% completion, 6.2 yards per attempt, 1,820 passing yards, 8 TD passes, 10 INTs, 36 sacks, 69.9 rating
• Trapasso’s take: “I’m basing these Dart projections on 350 attempts, simply because I’d be reasonably surprised if he’s the Week 1 starter and/or ultimately plays a full 17-game regular season schedule as a rookie, especially given the maturation process ahead of him going from Ole Miss’ offense to Brian Daboll’s.”

SHEDEUR SANDERS (Browns)

• Best-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 2,275 passing yards, 13 TD passes, 5 INTs, 24 sacks, 92.2 rating
• Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 6.2 yards per attempt, 2,015 passing. yards, 10 TD passes, 10 INTs, 39 sacks, 73.5 rating
• Trapasso’s take: “These projections are based on 325 attempts, and behind what should be a decent offensive line, with a nice albeit unspectacular collection of skill-position talent in Kevin Stefanski’s time-tested, QB-friendly system, Sanders thriving wouldn’t be a ridiculous outlier type rookie campaign. He has anticipation skills, and his trademark in college was keeping the ball out of harm’s way, which I considered in his interception totals.”

You can read Trapasso’s full take on each rookie quarterback by clicking here. 

It’s been nearly two weeks since I’ve heard from Pete Prisco, and although I assumed that was because he was on vacation, it turns out that’s not the case. Prisco has gone dark for the past two weeks because he’s been busy regrading the 2022 NFL Draft. 

This is actually a fascinating exercise, mainly for two reasons: For one, Prisco now has three years worth of film from each player, so he can determine whether a team’s draft class actually ended up being good or bad. Also, we get to see how good (or bad) Prisco’s original grade was for each team when he handed it out on the night of the draft in 2022. 

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the three teams with the highest grades and the two teams with the lowest grades. 

Highest regrades

• Ravens new grade: A+. “They had 11 picks and five of those are starters, including their first two picks. They took safety Kyle Hamilton in the first, and he’s proven to be a heck of a player. Starting center Tyler Linderbaum came with their second first-round pick.” Prisco’s 2022 grade: A+
• Chiefs new grade: A+. “They had 10 picks in this draft and all but one are still with the team heading into 2025, with five definite starters. They had two first-round picks, thanks to the Tyreek Hill trade with Miami, and landed corner Trent McDuffie with one of them and took edge George Karlaftis with the other. McDuffie is a top corner in the league, while Karlaftis is a good edge player.” Prisco’s 2022 grade: A
• Jets new grade: A+. “They had seven picks and all seven are still on the roster, with four as starters. Three of those starters came in the first round. They are corner Sauce Gardner, receiver Garrett Wilson and edge Jermaine Johnson II. Running back Breece Hall was taken in the second. They had a heck of a draft.” Prisco’s 2022 grade: A

There were only five teams that earned an “A+” in Prisco’s regrading system and these were three of them. 

Lowest regrades

• Patriots new grade: F. “They had 10 picks in the draft and two are still with the team. That’s awful. First-round guard Cole Strange is one of those, although he has missed a lot of time with injuries and will need to win a job at center or left guard in camp. … They whiffed on a bunch of other players, which is why this team is in rebuild mode right now.” Prisco’s 2022 grade: C-
• Commanders new grade: F. “They had eight picks in the draft, and just one — third-round running back Brian Robinson Jr. — is currently listed as a starter. Just four are on the roster. They missed on first-round receiver Jahan Dotson — traded to the Eagles — and second-round defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis, who is now with the Jets. They got very little from this draft.” Prisco’s 2022 grade: B+

Prisco handed out a total of five “F” grades.

If you’re wondering who else failed or how the other 27 teams graded out, you’re going to want to click here to check out Prisco’s full story. 

5. AFC East win totals: Predicting the over/under for each team in the division

The start of the NFL season is still more than three and a half months away, but it’s never too early to start making predictions, so that’s exactly what we’re going to do today. Over the next few days, we’re going to be handing out our best bets for every over/under in the NFL, and we’re going to start that today with the AFC East. 

Tyler Sullivan was in charge of making the predictions here. Let’s check out whether he likes the over or the under for each team in the division: 

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

New England Patriots
ODDS: Over 7.5 (-150) / Under 7.5 (+125)
LEAN: Over 7.5 (-150)
Sullivan’s take: “New England unquestionably went through the biggest overhaul this offseason. Not only did it hire Mike Vrabel to be its next head coach, but it also spent big in free agency and came away with a number of potential impact players in the 2025 NFL Draft. When you factor in those additions and the heightened floor with the new coaching staff along with a Year 2 bump by quarterback Drake Maye, New England has promise to be a wild-card club in the AFC.”

Miami Dolphins
ODDS: Over 8.5 (+130) / Under (-155)
LEAN: Under 8.5 (-155)
Sullivan’s take: “The Dolphins feel like a tired roster. Their offseason didn’t jump off the page, and there’s still the looming departure of cornerback Jalen Ramsey, further putting a dent in the overall talent on the depth chart. … I think eight wins is Miami’s ceiling for 2025, making the under 8.5 win total a best bet.”

If you want to see how Sullivan feels about the Bills or Jets, you can get his take on those two teams here. 

6. Extra points: 49ers hand out record-setting contract

This is always a busy time in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that’s happening, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Fred Warner lands record-setting contract from 49ers. For the third time in less than a month, the 49ers have handed out a huge extension, with Fred Warner getting a three-year, $63 million deal that will tie him to the team through the 2029 season. Warner is now the highest-paid off-ball linebacker in the league. Besides Warner, the 49ers have also given big extensions tom Brock Purdy and George Kittle over the past four weeks. We graded all of San Francisco’s splashy moves this offseason, and you can check out those grades here. 
• Joe Thuney gets two-year extension from Bears. Two months after being traded from Kansas City to Chicago, Thuney now has a new deal with the Bears. The offensive lineman has agreed to terms on a two-year, $35 million extension that will tie him to Chicago through the 2027 season. We’ve got more on his new deal here. 
• Nick Sirianni gets contract extension from Eagles. After the Eagles won the Super Bowl in February, it was pretty much a given that Nick Sirianni was going to get an extension. That came Monday with the Eagles giving him a multi-year extension.  Unfortunately, we don’t know how much he’ll get paid, because the terms of the deal haven’t been disclosed. Is Sirianni the best head coach in Eagles history? We broke down that question, and you can check out our answer here.  
• Browns will give all four quarterbacks a chance to win QB job. The Browns are going to have one of the wildest quarterback competitions of all-time this year, and that’s because there are four quarterbacks involved. According to Cleveland.com, the team’s goal is to give every signal-caller a fair chance to win the job. That means that for now, reps will be split up evenly between Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. Flacco knows the offense better than the other three, so he has the leg up there, but he’s also 40 years old, so it will be interesting to see how all of this plays out.