Fantasy Baseball Rankings Movers: Ronald Acuna’s impending return highlights oufield shakeup

Most every week, Scott White will highlight some of the more notable changes to his rest-of-season rankings. You’ll find said rankings here and are urged to bookmark them if you haven’t already. There’s no better resource for gauging player value throughout the long season.

A certain position has become so muddled this year that sorting it out every week is an exercise in futility. No matter how much I concede to upside or track record, no matter how much I deduct for playing-time concerns, no matter how much time I spend parsing every last detail, the rankings just end up looking wrong.

But it’s not first base. It’s not shortstop. It’s not even starting pitcher. Sure, you may have heard me lodge that same complaint about each of those three — the ranker’s lament, we’ll call it — but the worst offender is actually the outfield.

It’s getting the worst of both worlds, from a ranking perspective. Not only can I not seem to move unexpected standouts like Wilyer Abreu, Andy Pages and Kyle Stowers high enough but I also can’t bring myself to lower underachieving stalwarts like Michael Harris, Anthony Santander and Bryan Reynolds beyond a certain threshold. “Never the two shall meet” is what my experience and sensibilities are telling me, but of course, that’s not literally true. At some point, if the trend lines continue, the two coteries will have to meet and perhaps even cross over.

But when? That’s the age-old question. When should your hope run out for that slow starter? When should you fully buy into that unlikely breakout? A blanket answer to either question would be ignoring variations therein, but presuming everything except the production itself looks normal … when?

Gradually, I would say. Baseball season is notoriously long and subject to huge variation from month to month or even half to half, particularly on an individual level. Getting caught up in the moment at the exclusion of well-documented history can have catastrophic effects, so you have to treat everything you’re seeing as if you’re not quite sure whether it’s a dream or reality, straddling the fence as best you can. This is why nobody’s trade history is unvarnished but also why some seem to do it better than others. It’s almost like an instinct.

My instinct is to tiptoe, at least with the most extreme cases at each end of the struggling/surging spectrum, not wanting to make a bold claim about some player only to have to retract it two weeks later (thanks for that, Shane Baz). So when I tell you that I’ve moved Santander and Reynolds behind Riley Green and Randy Arozarena, understand that there was real pain involved and try to appreciate that it’s a necessary first step toward moving them behind Wilyer Abreu and Heliot Ramos, should it come to that. I genuinely think it won’t, but maybe we’ll never wake up from this dream.

That was a lot of words to say a bunch of nothing, but alas, it still took up precious time. So instead of going position by position with this week’s Rankings Movers, I’m going to key in on the 10 biggest changes I’ve made, beginning with — you guessed it — an outfielder.

The 10 biggest rankings moves for this week

1. Ronald Acuna is (almost) back, baby! He’s played in five minor-league rehab games, including three on consecutive days, and has looked so good that the Braves have discussed bringing him back as early as this weekend. Next week seems more likely, but either way, it’s basically now, so it’s time to rank him as if he’s already activated. While he has No. 1 upside at the position (or No. 2, let’s say, because it’s hard to imagine him overtaking Aaron Judge), you have to give him some leeway coming back from a torn ACL. I’ve settled on placing him seventh at the position, behind the six first-round types who’ve generally lived up to our expectations but ahead of those (Julio Rodriguez and Jackson Chourio, to name two) who are trying our patience.
2. You won’t find a better three-start stretch to begin a career than the one Logan Henderson has had, punctuating it with a 20-whiff effort against the Orioles on Tuesday. Seeing as he wasn’t a highly-regarded prospect and has found success in an unconventional way, relying more on fastball shape than velocity, a certain amount of restraint is warranted, but I’m at least willing to move him ahead of A.J. Smith-Shawver, another early-season riser, at 66th. Having said that, I may still be giving too much deference to Shane Baz (52nd) and Max Meyer (53rd).
3. Hayden Birdsong’s transition to the starting rotation is off to a good start, seeing him give up no earned runs over five innings against the Royals on Tuesday. His 13.8 percent swinging-strike rate in that outing is exactly what you hope to see, but his 67.5 percent strike rate is even more impressive given that control has been his greatest obstacle to this point. I’m reluctant to move him ahead of Matthew Liberatore, even though I think the upside is higher, so I’ve slotted Birdsong 73rd to start out. From there, it wouldn’t take much for he and Liberatore to leapfrog Jose Berrios, Ryan Pepiot and Zach Eflin.
4. I don’t like to keep moving shortstops ahead of Trea Turner, because he’s been a pretty great one for a long time and isn’t even off to a bad start, per se. But like Oneil Cruz a few weeks ago, I can no longer discount the possibility of a breakout for C.J Abrams. He’s hitting the ball harder, both on average and at the high end, and pulling it in the air more. The power growth seems legitimate, in other words, and an improvement in batting average figures to come with it. We already know him as a prolific base-stealer as well. Again, I think Turner will be fine, but he’s 31 and not hitting the ball as hard so far, so I can’t discount the possibility that he’s at the start of a decline. A little switcheroo for upside’s sake makes sense to me.
5. Matt Shaw is back in the big leagues and has already delivered consecutive multi-hit games, both with a double. His return should spark some enthusiasm because it follows a sudden resurgence at Triple-A in which he homered twice in back-to-back games, batting .343 (12 for 35) with five homers and three steals in his final nine. Perhaps the most revealing stat during that time was the 93.4 mph average exit velocity. You may recall he had a pitiful 82.7 mph average exit velocity during his first stay in the majors. The timing issues that plagued him then would appear to be sorted out, then, and if that’s the case, there’s genuine five-category potential. I can’t give him total benefit of the doubt yet, but slotting him 21st means I’m dropping Jonathan India and Max Muncy for him (also Javier Baez, but that’s a spicier take).
6. I honestly don’t think I can rank Ivan Herrera high enough at this point. His batting average is .439, and it seems to go up every day. I’m not evaluating him primarily on that, because it’s not 1981, but by whatever metric you want to use, he seems like a special hitter. Fielding is another matter, and at least for now, it’s not an issue because the Cardinals have been content to play him at DH (which could actually be an advantage, Fantasy-wise, if it continues). But it leaves less margin for error, which I guess is what’s keeping me from slotting Herrera among my top five catchers. Still, he’s up to eighth, moving ahead of J.T. Realmuto and Shea Langeliers.
7. Jose Alvarado is out of the rankings altogether, having just been hit with an 80-game PED suspension. The question is how high to install his expected replacement, Jordan Romano, who had already begun to steal chances at the time of the suspension. He’s looked as good as ever over the past two weeks, but his 7.27 ERA might give you some pause, as should manager Rob Thomson’s preference for a closing tandem. The possibility of Matt Strahm stealing saves now and then keeps Romano behind other questionable closers like Will Vest and Luke Jackson for me.
8. It’s time to give Hunters their due. My childlike capitalization is quite intentional because I refer, of course, to two proper men, Hunter Brown and Hunter Greene, now eighth and ninth in my starting pitcher rankings. (Greene had already been there but moved down with his IL stint for a groin injury, which is set to end this weekend). This is as much about those two, though, as Michael King and Dylan Cease, two Padres aces who haven’t seemed so ace-like in the early going. King’s ratios are terrific, but only twice has he gone the minimum six innings required for a quality start. Meanwhile, Cease’s inconsistencies have been all too familiar. You may argue that these were known issues for those two coming into the year, so why move them down? But look, they’re still 13th and 14th. I would simply say that Brown and Green come closer to meeting my interpretation of an ace.
9. You know how I said I’d hate to make a bold claim about some player only to have to retract it two weeks later? Yeah, I’m kind of doing that with Jorge Polanco here. It’s less about his batting average dropping from .384 to .306 over the course of this month, which was inevitable, and more about him not playing every day. There were reports earlier this season of him contending with an oblique injury that only affected him from the right side, but he’s been sitting every third or fourth game for so long now that I have to believe there’s more to it than that. My new ranking isn’t a total wipeout or anything, but he’s back behind Maikel Garcia and Tommy Edman at second base and Eugenio Suarez and Royce Lewis at third.
10. Merrill Kelly had one awful start back on April 3. In only one of his other nine has he allowed even three earned runs, and he’s registered 19 strikeouts in his last two. So I guess he’s just good again? It’s hard to understand given his lackluster arsenal and hard crash last year, but then again, he’s always been hard to understand. I don’t want to overstate my enthusiasm given that a pitcher with his skill set has a very thin margin for error, but I do want to take him seriously and believe he belongs in the same conversation with similarly flawed pitchers like Jose Berrios, Brandon Pfaadt and Zach Eflin. He’s now at the top of that heap, ranking 67th at starting pitcher.

A few others worth highlighting

• Dansby Swanson is up to 12th in my shortstop rankings, most notably ahead of Matt McLain and Willy Adames. I never had much confidence in those two, and Swanson is looking as good as he ever has, making plus contributions in everything but batting average.
• I’ve been saying that Doug Baldwin probably needs to rank ahead of Sean Murphy at this point, and I’ve made it a reality with this latest update, placing them 15th and 16th at catcher. Baldwin is batting .420 (29 for 69) with five homers since the start of April and is basically in a 50/50 split with Murphy now.
• Rookie Kristian Campbell has dropped from eighth to 13th in my second base rankings. He’s 4 for 54 (.074) over his past 13 games and has begun to lose at-bats to David Hamilton.
• I came so close to getting Austin Hays in my top 50 outfielders with this latest update and think it’s embarrassing that he’s not there yet. Ultimately, though, I decided that Andy Pages and Kyle Stowers deserve it more. You see what I mean about it being a crowded position? 
• Miguel Vargas is a big riser at three positions, coming in 30th at first base, 25th at third base and 76th in the outfield. This puts him in the rosterable range for Rotisserie leagues, and there are genuinely some encouraging signs for the former Dodgers prospect, such as higher exit velocities and a lower strikeout rate.
• Mick Abel’s stellar debut Sunday and subsequent return to the minors place him among the top prospect to stash and 98th in my starting pitcher rankings. That may not seem impressive to you, but it means he’s just one spot behind sudden riser Will Warren, who actually has a job.
• Devin Williams has been great since being moved to a lower-leverage role and, on most teams, would be on the verge of reclaiming the closer gig. But it’s hard to improve on Luke Weaver’s 0.44 ERA and 0.58 WHIP, which means I think Williams just has to bide his time right now. I’ve dropped him from 10th to 17th in my relief pitcher rankings.