The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers have had their fair share of epic comebacks this postseason, but nothing is likely to top what the Pacers did in the series-opener. The Pacers became the first team in NBA postseason history to win a game in which they trailed by at least nine points in the final minute, as teams were 0-1414 in that scenario before Game 1. The Knicks will host the Pacers on Friday for Game 2 of the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals at 8 p.m. ET. Jalen Brunson (43), Karl-Anthony Towns (35), Tyrese Haliburton (31) and Aaron Nesmith (30) each had at least 30 points on Wednesday and could be popular selections for same-game parlay bets, but our model isn’t backing any of them individually in its Knicks vs. Pacers SGP. The Knicks are favored by 6 points, and the over/under is 225.5 points in the latest Knicks vs. Pacers odds from DraftKings, and the latest DraftKings promo code gives users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. See more Pacers vs. Knicks props here.
SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Here are the model’s top-three picks in the Knicks vs. Pacers SGP on Friday:
- Indiana +6 (-110)
- Josh Hart Under 10.5 rebounds (-135)
- Myles Turner Over 21.5 points + rebounds (-105)
- SGP pays out +420 at DraftKings (odds subject to change)
Indiana +6 (-110)
The Pacers won Game 1 as the underdog and despite reaching the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks have been a losing team in their home arena. The Knicks are 3-4 straight up and against the spread at Madison Square Garden this postseason. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 5-1 straight up on the road, including winning their last five road playoff contests. The Pacers are 24-6, including 9-2 in the postseason, since March 11 as they’ve become one of the most dominant teams in the league. Indiana forced 15 turnovers, compared to turning the ball over only seven times itself, and made 15 3-pointers at 40.5% compared to the Knicks making 11 triples at 32.4% from beyond the arc in Game 1. The Knicks may be the more desperate team, but that doesn’t mean they are the better play for Friday. The model projects the Pacers to cover the spread in almost 60% of simulations.
Josh Hart Under 10.5 rebounds (-135)
Despite having 13 rebounds in Game 1, the model projects Hart for 9.1 rebounds on Friday, which is even below his season average of 9.6 rebounds per game. Part of the reason is that despite the Knicks scoring 135 points in Game 1, they lost. So New York may change its game plan for Game 2. Mitchell Robinson, a 7-foot center, played just 21 minutes in Wednesday’s overtime contest and the Knicks were often at their best against the Celtics with him on the court. Robinson han average plus-minus of plus 7.7 points per game in the Celtics series. Many of New York’s starters averaged a negative plus-minus despite winning the series, so if the Knicks play Robinson more on Friday, that signals fewer rebounding opportunities for Hart.
Myles Turner Over 21.5 points + rebounds (-105)
Turner had 14 points and five rebounds in Game 1 to finish below this total, but the Pacers center went Over this number in three of five games against Cleveland, including two of three road contests. The model projects Turner for a 23.8 points + rebounds total on Friday. He had 26 points and six rebounds in Indiana’s final regular-season contests against New York and he averaged 15.6 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this season.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Friday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Mike Barner, who’s on a sizzling 219-162-2 (+3104) roll on his last 383 NBA picks, which includes a play on one of Indiana’s key players. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 31 units in his last 383 NBA bets.
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