Whenever reigning Cy Young winner Chris Sale is on the mound, you usually try to avoid opposing hitters in any MLB player props. However, he has struggled versus many of the Padres best hitters. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts all are hitting at least .333 off the lanky lefty, making the Overs for their total base props appealing for Friday. Meanwhile, another ace, Clayton Kershaw, will tote the rubber on Friday’s MLB schedule, but he’s had success against Mets sluggers like Juan Soto and Pete Alonso, who are hitting a combined .190 off the future Hall of Famer. Thus, the Mets stars could also be useful in Friday MLB prop bets, albeit via backing their Unders. If you’re looking for more MLB picks today, check out our best MLB home run picks and DraftKings King of the Diamond strategy.
Targeting total base props is a popular way to attack MLB betting, and with 15 games on Friday’s MLB schedule starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later, you can find value on the board. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB total base picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest FanDuel promo code and Caesars Sportsbook promo code.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 13-8 run (62%) on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit a home run prop in three straight days and is up 27.5 units on picks over the last 45 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB total bases props on Friday. These three picks can be parlayed for +704 odds and would win $700 on a $100 bet. Also, see today’s top strikeout props.
Best Friday total bases MLB player prop picks:
- Juan Soto Under 1.5 total bases (-180)
- Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
- Parlay these picks for +704 odds (odds subject to change)
Juan Soto Under 1.5 total bases (-180)
Soto has drawn jeers from the Mets faithful not just due to a lack of hustle at times but also because his struggles at the plate. He’s gone Under 1.5 total bases in each of his last 10 games as he has zero extra-base hits and just some scattered singles over this stretch. He’s still drawing walks, as he ranks second in the NL in that regard and has nine over his last eight games, but those don’t count as total bases. Additionally, Kershaw has gotten the best of Soto in prior matchups as the outfielder is just 3 for 14 (.214) in his career against the three-time Cy Young winner. DraftKings has Soto’s under at -180, slightly better than the -200 other betting sites are offering.
Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Few players have had the type of success off Sale as Machado has had, and it’s over a large sample size. Across 30 plate appearances, Machado has a batting split of .360/.467/.600, with twice as many total bases (15) as strikeouts (seven). The two last met on Opening Day in which Machado had four total bases for the game, including hitting Over 1.5 TB versus Sale alone with a ground-rule double. Machado is third in the National League in doubles (15) this season and is bringing a hot bat into this series versus Atlanta as he’s hitting .348 in May. The model projects 1.93 total bases for Machado on Friday, with +120 odds coming at DraftKings.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Though not quite the same volume of plate appearances versus Sale as Machado has, this Padres star has also had success against the pitcher with an OPS of 1.000 across nine at-bats. That includes a pair of hits on Opening Day of this season off Sale, but Tatis’ fortune extends to his appearances versus other Braves as well. For his career, Tatis is hitting .359 against Atlanta, which is his highest batting average versus any team (min. 10 plate appearances). He’s averaged 2.1 total bases per game versus the Braves, and while the model is a bit more modest with its projection of 1.75 TB, there’s still great value with this being a plus-money MLB prop. Tatis is +135 at bet365.
Want more total bases picks for Friday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB total base prop picks for some popular props on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s best MLB picks from Jacob Fetner, who’s on a sizzling 5-1 (+1010) roll on MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets for Friday’s MLB schedule and be sure to see Fetner’s other best bets for Friday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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