Indy 500 odds, expert predictions: Will we see a Josef Newgarden three-peat or a Kyle Larson ‘Double’?

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Memorial Day Weekend brings us the 109th running of “the greatest spectacle in racing” — the Indianapolis 500. The Indy 500 sold out its grandstand of 350,000 for the first time since 2016, and the decades-old local TV blackout has been lifted so locals can watch the race live.

Josef Newgarden is gunning for the first-ever Indy 500 three-peat, but his attempt has been overshadowed by the discovery that his car was one of two illegal Team Penske cars. Penske is a powerhouse racing organization and a 20-time Indy 500 winner, and the team’s owner, Roger Penske, also owns both the IndyCar Series and Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The two cars in question, driven by Newgarden and Will Power, were relegated to the last row of the 33-car field, and Newgarden dropped from being the race favorite.

As if that wasn’t enough drama, NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson is adding to the anticipation by attempting “The Double” — completing both the Indy 500 and NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 on the same day. His attempt was foiled by bad weather last year, but if he can complete all 1,100 miles on Sunday, he’d become just the second driver ever to finish both, behind Tony Stewart, who ran sixth at Indy and third at Charlotte in 2001.

Our motorsports experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, have been all over these stories, and we asked them for their input on everything to know ahead of Sunday’s race — plus their favorites and long shots to win it all.

Take it away, guys!

How to watch the Indy 500

• Track: Indianapolis Motor Speedway — Indianapolis, Ind.
• Time: Coverage begins Sunday, May 25, noon ET; the race is at 12:45 p.m.
• TV: Fox
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Indianapolis 500 Q&A, predictions

Can you fill us in on the Penske controversy? How might this affect the race, if at all?

Jeff: Here’s the short version: Team Penske was found to have made an illegal modification to two of its cars, which resulted in penalties. But when further evidence came out showing Penske had actually been doing it for at least a year (including on last year’s winning car, which is on display in the speedway museum), it sparked further controversy because Penske also was caught in a cheating scandal last year. Team owner Roger Penske then fired three of his top IndyCar team officials, but he also owns IndyCar itself. Technically, the officials are under his purview, and the tech inspectors completely missed the infraction for more than a year. So, IndyCar will need to improve the inspection process as well.

Jordan: Looking at the direct impact on the race, Newgarden and Power were relegated to the last row in the 33-car field as part of the penalties. That’s a big blow for two drivers who were on the short list of favorites, especially Newgarden, who’s going for a historic third consecutive Indy 500 win. And, while each can overcome the deficit, it won’t be easy.

I have to ask about NASCAR driver Kyle Larson’s second attempt at completing “The Double” — racing in the Indy 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 on Sunday. How stacked are the odds against Larson even completing both, much less finishing well?

Jeff: He has a great chance to complete both, but much of it will come with avoiding a mistake at Indy (Larson has crashed twice in practice this year here) and running a clean race at Charlotte. Last year, Larson had a clean month except for a speeding penalty and one bad restart; otherwise, he would have gotten an easy top-10. So if everything goes well, I believe he could realistically finish top-10 at the Indy 500 and win the Coke 600 — but even simply completing every lap of both races would be impressive.

Jordan: Restarts are one thing drivers with limited experience struggle with, as they’re just not something you can properly prepare for until you’re in actual race conditions. Last year’s experience should help Larson on Sunday, but he’s still going to be at a disadvantage compared to almost everyone else in the field. Leaving Indy with a top-10 finish should be the goal, which is more than attainable.

Bringing back a question from last year: What is the single most important stat someone looking to place a wager on the race needs to look at? Laps led this season? Speed in the two weeks of qualifying and practice leading up to the race?

Jeff: Do not look at anything IndyCar-related this season except for what you’ve seen this month. This is the first oval of the IndyCar schedule, and road-course racing doesn’t translate to what we see at a large superspeedway like Indy. It’s important to look at speed from this month (the Penske cars, the Chip Ganassi Racing cars, Pato O’Ward, Takuma Sato and Conor Daly are among those who seem to have speed) and track history (Santino Ferrucci is 6-for-6 in Indy 500 top-10 finishes, which includes four finishes of sixth or better).

Jordan: Recent history is the stat you should pay the most attention to when deciding who to wager on. Particularly, look at a driver’s average finish, laps led and average running position year-over-year. Doing so will quickly give you an indication of who will likely be players come Sunday.

Who is your favorite to win the Indy 500?

Jeff: I’m going with the sentimental pick in O’Ward. His heart was shattered last year when Newgarden beat him on the last lap, and he openly sobbed on pit lane. O’Ward, the Mexican superstar, has contended every year in his five career 500s and has finished second twice. With the Penske cars having to start further back, it could give O’Ward a chance to control the race and ultimately win, which would be a highly popular result here in Indy.

Jordan: Most weeks, picking Álex Palou is a no-brainer with the Ganassi driver having won four of five races this season. But all those victories have come on street or road courses, and the three-time series champion is still seeking his first career win on an oval. He’s overdue to get that win, and Indy presents a good track for him to do it. He has three top-fives and four top-10 finishes in five Indy starts, including a runner-up in 2021. Also helping his cause is that he’s had speed throughout the month.

Who is a long shot you like?

Jeff: It would be an incredible story if Daly, the Indianapolis-area native and hometown favorite, were able to win this race. He’s 25-to-1, along with some of the other long shots I like — the aforementioned Ferrucci and, somehow, former Indy 500 winner Will Power (who is down the list due to his poor starting position as a result of the Penske penalties). But for the sake of making a pick here, I’ll go with Daly.

Jordan: Daly has come close, and a case could actually be made that he’s overdue. The elephant in the room is that Newgarden’s odds have worsened significantly thanks to him dropping to the rear of the field. But if anyone can pull off an unprecedented win from the back, it’s the two-time reigning race winner. If he can avoid early trouble, he’ll have plenty of time to pick his way to the front and position himself well for the finish.

Race winner odds for Indy 500

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 (Photo by James Gilbert / Getty Images)

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