2025 Notre Dame win totals, odds, picks: Prediction for Fighting Irish as they push for another deep CFP run

Notre Dame nearly made it to the mountaintop last season but came up short in the College Football Playoff National Championship against Ohio State. The Fighting Irish went through quite a journey to get there, one in which Marcus Freeman proved his coaching chops.  

The season looked as if it would quickly fly off the rails after a stunning Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois, which saw Notre Dame plummet from No. 5 in the AP Poll Top 25 to barely hanging on at No. 18. It also, at the time, knocked the Irish all the way out of the national conscience. 

Turns out that was the ideal position. Notre Dame took the adversity and started stacking wins, beating ranked teams like Louisville, Navy and Army to increase its standings. Along the way, the Irish lost several key players — including top cornerback Benjamin Morrison and top pass rusher Rylie Mills — to injury. 

In spite of that, Notre Dame still finished with an 11-1 regular-season record and an at-large spot in the playoff, where it dispatched upstart Indiana, SEC champion Georgia and Big Ten power Penn State to earn a date against the Buckeyes. 

Now all eyes are on what Notre Dame does for an encore. Though those injuries were tough to get through last season, they did provide ample opportunity for several players that are expected to step into a bigger role moving into 2025, and it also helped Freeman and his staff develop crucial depth pieces. 

Most win total projections have Notre Dame easily clearing the double-digit margin again. The Irish have a manageable, if front-loaded, schedule, and for my money, the base expectation is that they will be back in the CFP field while winning at least 11 games. Given the nature of the schedule, 12-0 is on the table — though it’s becoming increasingly more difficult to reach that mark. 

Prediction: Over 10.5 wins (+160)

Read on to see game-by-game predictions for Notre Dame’s 2025 season

at Miami (Aug. 31) 

Prediction: Win

Notre Dame gets arguably its biggest test of the year in its first regular-season game with on-again, off-again rival Miami. This game is the definition of a tossup. Both sides will be replacing their respective starting quarterbacks, but the Hurricanes have a lot of question marks beyond that. Leading rusher Damien Martinez, leading receiver Xavier Restrepo and several key defenders, including linebacker Francisco Mauigoa, are all gone. Plus, it will be much harder for Miami to find an effective substitute for Cam Ward’s play-making ability, even if it landed Carson Beck (Georgia) from the transfer portal. Teams with more continuity tend to do better early in the year and, even though it’s on the road, that gives Notre Dame an edge. 

Prediction: Loss

Despite all of Notre Dame’s success under Freeman, the Fighting Irish have been good for at least one early season loss throughout his tenure. Better Texas A&M than a MAC school. Regardless of the outcome, this should be an absolute rock fight. The Aggies will match up well against Notre Dame in the trenches and put a lot of effort into improving their wide receiver room to help young quarterback Marcel Reed. His athletic ability will make the difference in another tightly contested battle. 

Purdue (Sept. 20) 

Prediction: Win 

Barry Odom proved his coaching ability by leading UNLV to the precipice of the College Football Playoff in 2024. He should improve Purdue, given time, but he’s also inheriting an absolute mess. The Boilermakers went 5-19 in two years under Ryan Walters and face a significant talent deficit. Odom and his staff did sign a whopping 29 transfers in an effort to overhaul the roster. There will be growing pains, so this should be an easy win for Notre Dame. 

Prediction: Win 

Arkansas does bring back a couple of key players, including quarterback Taylen Green and potential breakout running back Braylen Russell, and it did pull off a huge upset win against then-No. 4 Tennessee at home last season. But the Hawgs’ best days under coach Sam Pittman are in the rearview mirror. Again, this probably won’t be an easy win, but, as with Miami, Notre Dame’s experience gives it a decisive advantage in a hostile road environment.  

Prediction: Win 

Ashton Jeanty may be gone, but Notre Dame cannot afford to overlook Boise State. The Broncos are still a heavy favorite to make it back to the College Football Playoff. Aside from their Doak Walker Award-winning running back, they return a lot of the production that earned them a first-round bye last season. That includes starting quarterback Maddux Madsen and four of five starting offensive linemen. 

Prediction: Win 

NC State is coming off its worst year under Dave Doeren since 2019, and it didn’t do enough on paper in the winter transfer window to significantly improve its standing. Young quarterback DJ Bailey is an intriguing piece, but he’ll be playing behind three new offensive linemen next season. That’s not an encouraging sign against a team like Notre Dame, even if NC State has some time to figure it out. 

USC (Oct. 18) 

Prediction: Win 

This is Notre Dame’s toughest contest after the difficult four-game stretch to open the season. USC will always be potent on offense under Lincoln Riley. The Trojans paired that with significant strides under first-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who received a January contract extension after improving USC’s total defense from 119th in the nation in 2023 to 77th last season. 

Prediction: Win 

Boston College was solid in former NFL coach Bill O’Brien’s debut year, winning seven games for the first time since 2018. The Eagles did lose thrilling quarterback Thomas Castellanos to the transfer portal (they didn’t really have him for the latter half of the 2024 season, anyway) but bring back Grayson James, who did well enough once Castellanos stepped away midseason. Still, Notre Dame has a significant talent advantage, regardless of where this game takes place. 

Navy (Nov. 8) 

Prediction: Win 

Navy is a legitimate threat to win the American Athletic Conference and secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. This is also, essentially, the same Navy team that Notre Dame physically overwhelmed and beat by 37 points last season. 

Prediction: Win 

Pitt should be much improved in 2025 given that it has a lot of key players returning on both sides of the ball. Running back Desmond Reid has All-American upside with his versatility; quarterback Eli Holstein is fresh off a positive debut season; and the defense is in good hands with leaders like Kyle Louis and Rasheem Biles. The Irish will be favored, though, and should be capable of handling their business. 

Prediction: Win 

This is a sneaky one. Syracuse is still flying under the radar despite winning 10 games last year — three of which were against ranked opponents, including No. 6 Miami. First-year coach Fran Brown has established a reputation as one of the nation’s top recruiters during assistant coaching stints at Rutgers and Georgia. It will be fun to see what the Orange do as an encore and if they can push Notre Dame. 

Prediction: Win 

Frank Reich will serve as the Cardinal’s interim coach following Troy Taylor’s ouster. The Cardinal weren’t doing too well before that, but now they are in survival mode. Interim coach success stories are a mixed bag, so we’ll see what happens in Palo Alto. But Notre Dame should be heavily favored here.