Team Penske will look to continue its domination when the Indianapolis 500 2025 takes place on Sunday. Penske has an astounding 20 Indy 500 victories, while no other team has more than five at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. It’s the only team to three-peat (2001-03), and over 20 years later, it’s seeking another back-to-back-to-back at the 2025 Indianapolis 500. Driver Josef Newgarden won the last two for Penske, but it also has others in the 2025 Indianapolis 500 starting lineup like Aussies Will Power and Scott McLaughlin. The 2025 Indianapolis 500 start time is 12:45 p.m. ET.
Newgarden and Power will begin at the back of the 2025 Indianapolis 500 starting grid in Row 11, while McLaughlin will start in Row 4. Row 1 consists of the favorite in Pato O’Ward, who is at 5-1 in the latest 2025 Indy 500 odds. Others looking to stop Penske’s run include Alex Palou (11-2), Scott Dixon (13-2) and Takuma Sato (9-1), while Newgarden is at 19-2 as he goes for his third in a row. Before scouring the 2025 Indy 500 starting grid and making any 2025 Indianapolis 500 predictions, be sure to see the latest 2025 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2025 NASCAR season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray. Then it predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout, and Christopher Bell’s (+600) All-Star victory. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 21 NASCAR winners since 2021.
It has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 races dating back to 2021 as well. It nailed 10 victories across the 2021 and 2022 seasons and then forecasted Max Verstappen’s rise to prominence by calling all 19 of his wins during the 2023 season and each of his first seven wins in 2024. In all, it has called 32 of the last 51 Formula One winners dating back to 2023. Anyone who followed the model’s lead on those plays at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2025 Indianapolis 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2025 Indy 500 leaderboard.
Top 2025 Indianapolis 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Felix Rosenqvist, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the latest 2025 Indianapolis 500 odds. His vehicle was impressive in testing as he had the fastest “no-tow” lap on Open Test Day 1 and then had the fastest single lap of the time trials morning session. This season on the IndyCar Series, Rosenqvist has four top 10s across his five starts and will begin in the middle position of Row 2 on the Indy 500 starting grid.
The Swede has been a bit unlucky in his last two Indy 500 starts, as mechanical issues last year and a crash in 2023 each resulted in 27th-place finishes. But he was fourth in his prior start at the race and has the support of an Indy 500-winning team. Rosenqvist is in his second year with Meyer Shank Racing, and the team won the 2021 Indianapolis 500 with Helio Castroneves. That experience can’t be discounted, nor should Rosenqvist be discarded when it comes to Indy 500 predictions. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Josef Newgarden, the two-time defending champion and one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and doesn’t crack the top five. Newgarden notched a podium in the season opener at St. Petersburg, but that’s just about the only success he’s experienced this year. He’s finished 10th or worse in every other race in 2025 and is on pace for his worst IndyCar finish in a decade. Newgarden sits 11th in the standings after being among the top eight in each of the last 10 years, which includes two championships and three second-place finishes.
Newgarden’s struggles are a microcosm of Team Penske’s struggles as a whole. Of its three drivers, multiple had top-5 IndyCar Series finishes each of the last three years, but Penske currently doesn’t have any driver in the top five of the standings this season. Not only does Penske not have any wins across 15 total starts this season, it doesn’t even have any runners-up. There’s also the fact that Newgarden is battling history as no one in the 108-year history of the Indianapolis 500 has ever three-peated, so the odds aren’t in has favor to do so on Sunday. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Indianapolis 500 picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2025 Indy 500 odds longer than 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s Indy 500 projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Indy 500 2025, and which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2025 Indianapolis 500 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2025 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted 21 NASCAR winners since 2021 and 32 Formula One winners since 2021.
2025 Indianapolis 500 odds (subject to change)
See full 2025 Indy 500 picks at SportsLine
Pato O’Ward 5-1
Alex Palou 11-2
Scott Dixon 13-2
Robert Shwartzman 8-1
Takuma Sato 9-1
Scott McLaughlin 9-1
Josef Newgarden 19-2
Felix Rosenqvist 12-1
Kyle Larson 18-1
David Malukas 18-1
Alexander Rossi 18-1
Christian Lundgaard 20-1
Marcus Ericsson 20-1
Kyle Kirkwood 25-1
Conor Daly 25-1
Colton Herta 25-1
Will Power 25-1
Santino Ferrucci 25-1
Helio Castroneves 30-1
Ed Carpenter 60-1
Graham Rahal 80-1
Sting Ray Robb 80-1
Ryan Hunter-Reay 80-1
Louis Foster 80-1
Kyffin Simpson 100-1
Jack Harvey 100-1
Devlin DeFrancesco 100-1
Christian Rasmussen 100-1
Callum Ilott 100-1
Rinus Veekay 100-1
Nolan Siegel 100-1
Marcus Armstrong 100-1
Marco Andretti 100-1
Indianapolis 500 starting grid
| Row 1 | Robert Shwartzman | Takuma Sato | Pato O’Ward |
| Row 2 | Scott Dixon | Felix Rosenqvist | Álex Palou |
| Row 3 | David Malukas | Christian Lundgaard | Marcus Ericsson |
| Row 4 | Scott McLaughlin | Conor Daly | Alexander Rossi |
| Row 5 | Kyffin Simpson | Ed Carpenter | Santino Ferrucci |
| Row 6 | Devlin DeFrancesco | Sting Ray Robb | Christian Rasmussen |
| Row 7 | Kyle Larson | Louis Foster | Callum Ilott |
| Row 8 | Hélio Castroneves | Kyle Kirkwood | Nolan Siegel |
| Row 9 | Ryan Hunter-Reay | Jack Harvey | Colton Herta |
| Row 10 | Graham Rahal | Marco Andretti | Marcus Armstrong |
| Row 11 | Rinus VeeKay | Josef Newgarden | Will Power |
This news was originally published on this post .
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