Aston Villa denied Champions League qualification by dramatic referee error vs. Manchester United

The final day of the Premier League season often ends with thoughts about what might have been if that one moment had broken their way. Rarely, though, does regretfulness and frustration come with the immediacy that it does for Aston Villa, who might reasonably conclude that they would be playing Champions League football — and probably be $50 million or more better off — had it not been for a critical error by their officials. A 2-0 loss to Manchester United on Sunday might have been a draw. It might even have been a 1-0 win. If only Thomas Bramall hadn’t blown up so expeditiously when Morgan Rogers snuck in to punish an Altay Bayindir error.

Villa, who had seen their goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez sent off in the first half for a foul on Rasmus Hojlund, thought they had claimed a precious lead in the 73rd minute. With Bayindir struggling to gain control of a ball on the edge of his penalty area, Rogers poked the ball loose before then turning the ball into an empty net.

Before the ball had crossed the line, however, referee Bramall had blown his whistle to signal what he believed to be a foul on Bayindir. That ultimately meant that VAR was unable to intervene. Replays suggested that had Stuart Attwell been able to assess the incident, he may well have concluded that the Manchester United goalkeeper did not have control of the ball.

Villa boss Unai Emery raged on the sidelines, his frustration all the greater three minutes later when Amad Diallo struck the opener for United. With results elsewhere breaking in their favor — Newcastle were beaten at home to Everton while Chelsea won 1-0 at Nottingham Forest — a point would have been enough to secure a top-five finish and Champions League football for Villa. What hope they had left of securing that evaporated in the 87th minute when Christian Eriksen converted a penalty that had drawn sarcastic applause from Emery.

The 53-year-old remonstrated with Bramall and the other officials as they made their way down the matchday tunnel while their club captain was left crestfallen at a damaging error inflicted on Villa. 

“The decision is incredible,” said John McGinn. “Everyone, when VAR was implemented, wanted the correct decisions. If it’s offside, make it offside. I know it’s the rules, but it’s so, so hard to take when the impact it has on us is so big.”

Asked whether the referee had spoken to Villa players, McGinn added: “He didn’t really know what to say. Because of the impact it has on us as players and our careers, the club, you are obviously angry. I think he is a young referee who has progressed very quickly. Maybe we could look at having more experienced referees. I don’t know. It’s just an incredible decision and makes today even worse than it should be.”

Emery appeared to indicate that Bramall had apologized to him for the mistake, and though he acknowledged that United were worthy winners, the Spaniard could not help but feel that the Rogers’ goal that wasn’t had been the game’s turning point.

“The TV is clear,” he told TNT Sports. “We have to accept it. It was a mistake, a big mistake. The match we played over 90 minutes, with the red card, with this disallowed goal, it was the key moment.”

What does missed UCL mean for Villa?

Financially in particular, the damage for Villa is profound. The Midlands side are expected to have earned around $95 million for their run to the quarterfinals of this season’s Champions League. Tottenham’s reward for winning the Europa League is estimated at around $30 million.

Losing that top-tier continental revenue increases the pressure on the Villa Park bean counters, who are understood to have hovered close to the league’s Profit and Sustainability limits over recent seasons in which they have invested heavily in Emery’s squad. Deloitte’s Football Money League estimated that 96 percent of the club’s revenue went on player salaries, a figure that would put them in breach of UEFA’s incoming squad cost ratios, which will limit wage expenditure to 70 percent of revenue.

Villa’s success has come despite them having to cash in on Douglas Luiz and Jhon Duran in successive windows. There will now be questions over the future of Emiliano Martinez, a target for the Saudi Arabian Pro League, and Ollie Watkins. Academy graduate Jacob Ramsey would also represent the sort of pure profit cash injection that would ease the pressure on the finances.

Equally, the absence of Champions League revenue will make it more challenging to extend the stays of Marco Asensio and, in particular Marcus Rashford, whose salary of nearly $500,000 a week is expected to be prohibitive for Villa. Keep the core of their squad together, and Emery’s side will doubtless be one of the favorites to lift the Europa League, but after months of famous European nights against Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain, the Villa faithful will be wondering what might have been if Bramall had just held off on his whistle.