2025 Stanley Cup Final: Best bets to win championship, Conn Smythe Trophy

For the fifth time since the expansion era of the NHL began in 1967-68, a rematch of the previous year’s Stanley Cup Final will take place. The Florida Panthers defeated the Edmonton Oilers in seven games last postseason to win the championship for the first time in franchise history. Edmonton has home-ice advantage this time around and hosts Florida on Wednesday for Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final.

This marks the first time the same teams face off for the championship in back-to-back years since the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins battled for the Cup in both 2008 and 2009. Detroit won the title in the first meeting, but Pittsburgh exacted revenge the following postseason. The Montreal Canadiens defeated the St. Louis Blues in both 1968 and 1969, then beat the Boston Bruins in 1977 and 1978, while the New York Islanders got past Edmonton in 1983 before losing to the Oilers a year later.

Florida and Edmonton both won their conference final series in five games, with the Panthers defeating the Carolina Hurricanes and the Oilers dispatching the Dallas Stars for the second straight postseason. Florida, which nearly squandered a 3-0 lead in the 2024 Final, won a pair of one-goal decisions against Edmonton this past regular season.

The Panthers are the ninth franchise in NHL history, the fourth since the playoff field expanded to 16 teams in 1980 and the second in the last 40 years to make three consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup Final. They also are the sixth straight representative of the Sunshine State to reach the Final, as the Tampa Bay Lightning appeared three consecutive times from 2020-22.

It is the fourth overall appearance for Florida, while Edmonton is in the Final for the ninth time in team history. The Oilers are making back-to-back trips for the third time overall and first since winning the Cup in both 1987 and 1988.

Even though his Oilers came up short last year, Connor McDavid became the sixth player in playoff history to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as a member of the losing team. The three-time Hart Trophy winner led the league with 42 points in the postseason to join Roger Crozier (1968, Red Wings), Glenn Hall (1968, Blues), Reggie Leach (1976, Philadelphia Flyers), Ron Hextall (1987, Flyers) and Jean-Sebastien Giguere (2003, Mighty Ducks of Anaheim) in the exclusive club.

McDavid enters the 2025 Stanley Cup Final as the scoring leader with 26 points in 16 games, with teammate Leon Draisaitl right on his heels with 25. Captain Aleksander Barkov tops the Panthers with 17 points in as many contests.

Sergei Bobrovsky has posted a 2.11 goals-against average and .912 save percentage for Florida, while Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner has recorded a 2.53 GAA and .904 SP. The goaltenders are tied for the postseason lead with three shutouts apiece.

Despite losing last year’s matchup, Edmonton is the favorite to win the Stanley Cup with odds around -120 at most sportsbooks. The Panthers are the underdogs with odds around +100. Meanwhile, McDavid is favored to take the Conn Smythe Trophy, with his odds ranging from -110 to +110 at the major sportsbooks.

Here is my prediction to win the 2025 Stanley Cup and the best bets to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.

Stanley Cup champion

Edmonton Oilers (-120, FanDuel)

Prior to the start of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, my expectations for the Oilers were low. After all, the last team to return to the Final after losing the previous year was the 2009 Penguins. But Edmonton has proven me wrong at every turn this postseason, defeating the Los Angeles Kings, Vegas Golden Knights and Stars. After losing the first two games of their first-round series against the Kings, the Oilers have gone 12-2 while changing goaltenders twice. 

They have scored at least three goals in all but two of their 16 playoff games, netting four or more on nine occasions, and allowed fewer than three in seven of their last 12 contests. Edmonton is without one of its top scorers in Zach Hyman (upper body) but has been getting offensive contributions from many of its role players. It also got top defenseman Mattias Ekholm back in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final and has been receiving stellar play from Skinner, who allowed a total of two goals over his first five wins this postseason before yielding three in the series clincher against Dallas. 

McDavid and the Oilers nearly pulled off the impossible in last year’s Final, forcing a seventh game in which they lost 2-1 after dropping the first three contests, and they seem to be on a mission to claim the Cup for the first time since 1990.

Best bets for Conn Smythe Trophy

Connor McDavid, Oilers (+110, DraftKings)

It’s very unlikely that McDavid will reach the point total he registered last postseason, but if he’s able to come close to his performance in the conference final, he’s a lock to become the seventh player in NHL history to win multiple Conn Smythe Trophies and join Bernie Parent (1974-75), Mario Lemieux (1991-92) and Sidney Crosby (2016-17) as the only ones to earn the award in back-to-back years. 

McDavid recorded four two-point efforts in the five-game triumph over the Stars, giving him a league-high nine such outings this postseason. The 28-year-old captain has been kept off the scoresheet in just two of Edmonton’s 16 playoff games and once in his last 14 contests. He had a pair of four-point performances against the Panthers in last year’s Final and finished the series with three goals and 11 assists. Unless Florida is able to hold him without a point three times again like it did in 2024, McDavid is likely to make another addition to his trophy case.

Sergei Bobrovsky, Panthers (+260, Caesars)

Many thought Bobrovsky would capture the Conn Smythe last year after posting a 2.32 GAA and .906 save percentage. The Russian netminder held Edmonton’s high-powered offense to fewer than two goals three times in the Final, registering one of his two shutouts of the 2024 postseason along the way. 

Bobrovsky has been superb in these playoffs since giving up four or more goals in each of Florida’s first three second-round games against the Toronto Maple Leafs, as he yielded two or fewer in eight consecutive contests before surrendering three in the clinching fifth game of the Eastern Conference Final versus the Hurricanes. It would be difficult to pass Bobrovsky over a second straight year if he’s able to continue that strong play against the Oilers and guide the Panthers to another championship.

Check out the SportsLine Projection Model’s predictions for every game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, along with expert picks, only at SportsLine!