MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners, March 31st

Unfortunately, the agony of defeat was finally felt by this column after suffering its first loss of the season yesterday. But hey, it had to happen at some point—no one goes undefeated.

Kicking off the first full week of the campaign, we’ll look toward a matchup in Seattle, where the Tigers and Mariners are meeting for a three-game set.

The M’s opened their slate by splitting four games with the Athletics. Notably, all went under the total for bettors—aside from one push Friday night, which would have stayed under if not for a fluky sequence of events in the latter two innings.

Like last year, the Mariners’ success appears to hinge on consistently strong starting pitching as the offense struggles to deliver. They went 20-for-114 (.175) in the opening series after finishing with the second-lowest team batting average in the majors (.224) last season.

Things don’t figure to get any easier tonight, as they will be the first opponent in the starting career of electric youngster Jackson Jobe. The No. 5 prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com, debuted last year with a couple of bullpen appearances in late September during Detroit’s furious playoff push. He fared well in those two outings, though not as much when he pitched in relief in the postseason.

Either way, there’s plenty of hype surrounding Jobe, and it’s well deserved. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft dominated minor league competition last season, posting a 2.31 ERA in 21 starts across 91 2/3 innings while allowing just four home runs.

Jobe’s walk rate was a bit high, with a 96-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he doesn’t give up many hits and still recorded a solid 1.12 WHIP.

Jobe continued his strong performance in spring training, holding opponents to a .175 batting average in 16 1/3 innings. While nerves could be a factor in his first MLB start, Jobe’s experience last year in high-leverage situations—including the playoffs—sets him up well.

Opposing Jobe is Emerson Hancock, another former top-10 first-round draft pick—one year earlier, to be exact—though he comes with far less fanfare. Given the talent in Seattle’s stacked rotation, that’s out of his control.

Hancock hasn’t had a full-time opportunity in the rotation yet, mainly due to the Mariners’ depth. He’s in the rotation now only because of George Kirby’s injury, which is expected to sideline him for at least the first few turns in 2025.

Many believe—myself included—that Hancock could be a quality mid-rotation arm for several other teams. An argument could even be made that he’s never been better than he is right now.

Hancock added a retooled sweeping slider and cutter to his repertoire, and the results showed in spring training. The former Georgia Bulldog racked up 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings while issuing only three walks. He allowed just one home run, and if he can reduce last year’s home run rate (12 in 60 2/3 innings), it would go a long way in his development.

Perhaps just as important is Hancock’s shift in mentality. “I’m just being myself a little bit more,” he said early in the spring. “I think for a while, I was trying to be so serious, and at the end of the day, it’s so much more fun when you’re just out there and enjoying it, and you have freedom in what you’re doing.”

He added: “It’s such a long process and a long season. The more you can keep it light and enjoy things and realize that it really is supposed to be fun, that can really help you and give you a different perspective.”

These changes—both physically and mentally—could be the difference in unlocking Hancock’s immense potential.

His first assignment puts him in a solid position to start the campaign on a high note. The Tigers ranked in the bottom third of MLB last year in team batting average (.234), on-base percentage (.300) and slugging percentage (.385). In their first series of the season against the Dodgers, they weren’t far off from those marks. Offense still isn’t a strength in Detroit.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-120, BetMGM)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 3-1-1, +1.85 units

Over/Unders: 2-1
Props: 1-0
Yesterday’s result: Twins-Cardinals Under 8.5 (loss)

Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

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