Tired of NBA teams tanking? Here’s how to solve it. Plus, checking in on 2024 rookies

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The Pelicans announced they’re shutting down Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum for the remainder of the season. Now how are the 21-54 Pelicans supposed to win?

The Simple Solution to Tanking

Just unweight the draft lottery

Since the 1990 NBA Draft, the league has conducted a weighted lottery system. It used to be pretty simple: The worst team had 11 out of 66 chances to land the first pick. The second-worst team had 10 out of 66, and so on. Then, the NBA applied even more dramatic odds in 1993 when then-commissioner David Stern was irate that the Magic won the No. 1 pick in back-to-back years. Former Magic executive Pat Williams told a story about Stern shaking his hand when they won their second consecutive lottery and squeezing the life out of it.

The league went to a much more dramatically weighted system after that. It has been tweaked a couple of times since 2014, but the NBA is constantly battling how to temper tanking to avoid ruining the product on the floor. So far, it hasn’t really come up with a deterrent. When there is a presumed franchise-changing prospect like Zion Williamson or Victor Wembanyama or now Cooper Flagg at stake, certain teams are going to make the second half of the season unwatchable and embarrassing most nights.

Mike Vorkunov tackled some potential solutions to tanking, and there’s some good stuff in there. But I’ve been banging this drum for years and will continue to do so. There is a simple way to cut tanking: Just unweigh the lottery. Teams that miss the playoffs should have a 1-in-14 chance (7.1 percent) of getting the No. 1 pick. That’s it.

The pushback on this is always that you’ll have teams intentionally losing to avoid the playoffs, so they can try to win the lottery. Call me naive, but I do not see that becoming an actual problem. To convince ownership groups that they should bail out of potential playoff revenue for a 7.1 percent chance of landing the top pick does not seem like a sound business decision. And I’m pretty sure these owners still love money. The addition of the Play-In Tournament also gives more life to some mediocre teams, and we’ve seen examples of teams in the Play-In make big runs in the postseason.

You might get the occasional team to decide it’s not worth it and drop a game or two. Yes, you’ll have the outlier every once in a while where a team tries to get cute and do this. I have a solution, even though it’s unethical. I would tell the league office to rig the lottery that year so that team doesn’t win it.

The other pushback is that it could make it harder for the really bad teams to get the top players and become good again. Have you seen the teams that are consistently in the lottery over and over again? Sometimes, franchises are just bad and poorly run! Maybe we shouldn’t bail those teams out when they continue to mess up those opportunities.

I don’t know why the NBA is historically so worried about teams winning multiple No. 1 picks in a row. I also don’t know why the league is so worried about unweighing the lottery when all other options for flattening lottery odds have still led to what we’re currently seeing in the last month and a half of the season. I will always believe unweighting the lottery will stop this horrendous basketball from being played.

Curious to know more about solving the draft? The “No Dunks” crew has you covered in today’s episode!

The Last 24

Can the Suns survive final stretch sans KD?

🏀 Uh oh. Kevin Durant is going to miss this week as the Suns try to make the Play-In … with less than two weeks left in the season.

🏀 So much negativity. The NBA has the most skill and athleticism we’ve ever seen. David Aldridge examines why there’s so much criticism for the league.

📚 All No. 1s. Don’t be mad there isn’t a Cinderella in the men’s Final Four. Storybook endings are still possible.

🎧 Tuning in. Today’s NBA Daily discusses whether the Thunder are the best regular-season team ever.

📝 We need you! Hey newsletter readers — it’s time for us to hear from you! Please fill out a quick survey about your newsletter experience here. A few of you will win $100 worth of Amazon vouchers. Thanks for chiming in!

📺 Don’t miss this game tonight. Timberwolves (43-32) at Nuggets (47-28), 10 p.m. ET on TNT. Shockingly, Minnesota can sweep the season series here.

📺 League Pass gem. Warriors (43-31) at Grizzlies (44-31), 8 p.m. ET on League Pass (get it here). Golden State moves into fifth with a win.

About Last Night

Lakers’ new big three gets help from others

Everything with the Lakers looks fine and Showtime-y when things are flowing and the stars are dancing all over the floor. Luka Dončić can put up 30-point triple-doubles with the best of them. LeBron James is still playing at an elite level that makes you stop believing in time as a concept. And Austin Reaves is already one of the best undrafted stories in league history. But to beat a surging team like the current No. 2 seed Rockets, you sometimes need something extra.

The Lakers got that last night when Gabe Vincent and Dorian Finney-Smith came off the bench to combine for 40 points and 12 made 3-pointers. LeBron (16) and Reaves (12) actually struggled to score against the elite Rockets defense. And even though Dončić had this fun highlight against Alperen Şengün, he also needed the help from the role players to complete the play and the night.

The Lakers won an ugly one with a 103-98 victory, closing out with this LeBron block and a whole lot of good defense against the Rockets scrambling for some offense. The Lakers (46-29) are now firmly in fourth with just a game between them and Denver for the No. 3 seed. If the big three keeps getting help like this from the role players, this Lakers squad will be capable of anything in the playoffs.

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More from last night’s action!

Celtics 117 (56-19), Grizzlies 104 (44-31): The Celtics are on fire, winning their ninth straight game behind six 3-pointers and 26 points off the bench from Al Horford. Jayson Tatum had 25 points and 14 rebounds, and Boston just swept its six-game road trip.

Clippers 96 (43-32), Magic 87 (36-40): Yesterday, I promised you defense with these two, and they delivered. Ivica Zubac had 18 points, 20 rebounds and five assists. The Clippers are a half-game out of sixth.

Nets 113 (25-51), Mavericks 109 (37-39): Spencer Dinwiddie missed a game-winning 3 with three seconds left, and Keon Johnson’s 24 points gave the Mavs their first loss with Anthony Davis on the floor. Davis had 12 points, seven rebounds and five assists in 28 minutes.

Pacers 111 (44-31), Kings 109 (36-39): Sacramento couldn’t take advantage of Dallas’ loss and remain in 10th in the West. Six of Aaron Nesmith’s 24 points came on free throws in the final 20 seconds to clinch it. Confidence, baby! Shoutout to Leigh Ellis!

Thunder 145 (63-12), Bulls 117 (33-42): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 27 points and 12 assists, and Isaiah Joe added 31 off the bench for the Thunder, who earned their 49th double-digit victory of the season. They’re one away from tying the 1971-72 Lakers for the most in a season.

Rookie Check-In

Did 2024 draft class play better than expected?

We went into the 2024 NBA Draft knowing nobody was likely to find a franchise guy. But we’ve thought this about previous drafts and then ended up surprised by Giannis Antetokounmpo or even Rudy Gobert. So, let’s do a rookie check on the 2024 class and break them into some categories.

Star Role Players

Stephon Castle, San Antonio (No. 4 overall): Castle is probably the best player in the class with the highest potential. He’s finished the season strong, and he’s going to be a great complement to Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox moving forward.

Jared McCain, Philadelphia (No. 16 overall): He was having the best season before his knee injury, and the Duke product definitely has all the makings of a top-notch role player in this league. He can create his shot and is a knockdown shooter.

Alex Sarr, Washington (No. 2 overall): I love what Sarr has shown. Put him with a real playmaker, and you’ll see his offensive game blossom. Plus, his potential on defense is tremendous.

Kel’el Ware, Miami (No. 15 overall): Other than McCain, Ware might be the nicest surprise from the first round. He’s all over the court and looks like he’ll be able to do everything asked of a modern big man.

Really Good Role Players

Jaylen Wells, Memphis (No. 39 overall): A late-season swoon may have cost Wells the Rookie of the Year award, but he is a great find for Memphis – great 3-and-D prospect.

Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta (No. 1 overall): Maybe this is selling a little too low on the first pick in the draft. I like some of his game, but I just need to see extended stretches of the good stuff.

Donovan Clingan, Portland (No. 7 overall): I still don’t think I see Clingan as a starter on a good team, but he is massive and can really control the paint at times.

Zach Edey, Memphis (No. 9 overall): I immediately walked back my doubts about Edey the second I saw him in preseason. He has a definite place in this league, and he’ll have a good career.

Matas Buzelis, Chicago (No. 11 overall): The Bulls rookie is having a strong finish to the season that has me buying his future. He can play, but he needs to start out strong next season.

Dalton Knecht, Lakers (No. 17 overall): The Tennessee product started fading a bit in the middle of the season, but his strong March almost demands more time for him. He can really shoot it.

Yves Missi, New Orleans (No. 21 overall): Missi has solved the Pelicans’ search for a center and has been the bright spot of their season.

Quinten Post, Golden State (No. 52 overall): Post might be the official steal of this draft. He’s someone making a massive difference for the new iteration of the Warriors.

Numbers Aren’t There, But You Believe In Them

Ron Holland (No. 5 pick, Detroit), Bub Carrington (No. 14, Washington), Kyshawn George (No. 24, Washington), Ryan Dunn (No. 28, Phoenix)

Not Busts, But It’s a Real Bad Start

Reed Sheppard (No. 3, Houston), Cody Williams (No. 10, Utah), Tidjaun Salaune (No. 6 Charlotte)

(Top photo: Brad Penner / USA Today Network via Imagn Images) )

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