Apr 5, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) shoots the ball against the Auburn Tigers during the first half in the semifinals of the men’s Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images Duke’s dramatic exit from the NCAA Tournament was a big win for most sportsbooks, and they can cap March Madness with another big win if Houston can upset Florida in Monday night’s championship game.
Florida was a consensus 1.0-point favorite by mid-day Monday, but the Gators have been the top two most-backed teams to win the title since the tournament began. The other? That was Duke, which bowed out after losing a 14-point lead against Houston on Saturday night.
The Gators opened as a 1.5-point favorite against the Cougars at many sportsbooks. That includes BetMGM, where Florida has been backed by 61 percent of the spread-line bets and 53 percent of the money. Meanwhile, BetRivers reported on Monday that 60 and 58 percent of the spread-line action, respectively, has supported the Gators.
Florida opened at +4000 at BetMGM to win the national championship. Those odds had shrunk to +325 before the tournament began and sat at -115 on Monday. By comparison, Houston has seen its odds shrink from +1400 to +600 ahead of the tournament and to -105 the day of the title game.
BetMGM has taken a $100,000 bet on Florida at +900 to win the title, with the largest bet backing Houston a $50,000 wager at +600. BetRivers took a $700 futures wager on Florida at +5000 that would pay out $35,000 with a Gators victory on Monday night.
“Duke losing in the Final Four was a great result for BetMGM. The sportsbook is cheering for Houston to upset Florida in the championship game,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
PROP PICKS
–Walter Clayton Over 19.5 Points (-140 at BetMGM): Coming off a 34-point game in the Gators’ Final Four win over Auburn and with Duke’s Cooper Flagg out of the picture, Clayton is now the +100 favorite to win the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award. The senior also poured in 30 against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight after averaging 19.7 points through Florida’s first three tournament games.
–Over 140.5 Total Points (-105 at BetRivers): Florida has averaged 84.4 points per game during the tournament in running its streak of games with at least 77 points to 18, and each of the Gators’ past eight NCAA Tournament games have produced at least 145 points, according to the book. Houston hasn’t been as high scoring, averaging 72 points during its run to the title game, but the Cougars did manage to produce 70 points against Duke’s lengthy defense.
KEY STAT
The Gators have won the first half in 15 of their past 18 non-conference games.
THE NEWS
Houston (35-4), which has won 18 straight, has designs on making 69-year-old Kelvin Sampson the oldest coach to win an NCAA championship. Sampson is the architect of the Cougars’ system focused on defense, rebounding and toughness, though this year’s group also leads the nation in 3-point shooting (39.9 percent) thanks to guards LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp (12.8 ppg) and Milos Uzan (11.5 ppg).
“Last night, I got so many texts,” Sampson said on Sunday. “I saw Tubby (Smith) and Rick Barnes, Tom Izzo, (Gregg Popovich), a bunch of the older coaches. They all kind of had similar messages to me: Win one for the old guys, something like that.”
To do so, Houston and its national-best defense will have to solve an athletic and analytic juggernaut developed by one of Division I’s youngest head coaches, 39-year-old Todd Golden.
The Gators (35-4) feature not only the third-most efficient offense in the KenPom era — averaging 128.8 points per 100 possessions, just shy of Duke’s 130.0 rating — but they also boast the NCAA Tournament’s hottest player in senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr.
When Florida needed to rally from 10 points down to Texas Tech with five minutes to play in the West Region final on March 29, Clayton reeled off 13 of his game-high 30 points. When Florida needed to come back from eight points down to Auburn in Saturday’s semifinal, the first-team All-American poured in 20 of his career-high 34.
“Having someone’s that such an elite threat to score with the ball in his hands at all times,” Golden said, “obviously makes everybody else so dangerous as well.”
Auburn rarely figured out a way to get the ball out of Clayton’s hands during crunch time. He produced a crucial 3-pointer and a three-point play down the stretch when the Tigers got as close as one point.
With that in mind, Golden expects Houston’s group of agile and physical defenders — even big men J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler have the ability to stay with guards — to double Clayton and make him give up the ball.
“Their defense worries me a lot, absolutely,” Golden said with a laugh. “You look at a guy like Tugler, Roberts, they have incredible length and athleticism and physicality inside the paint. They wear you down, make it really, really hard on you.”
If Clayton (18.5 ppg, 4.1 apg) can’t put up 18 shots like he did Saturday, then he’ll move the ball to senior guards Alijah Martin (14.6 ppg) and Will Richard (13.2 ppg) and big men Alex Condon (10.5 ppg) and Thomas Haugh (9.9 ppg).
Florida, which has won 11 in a row, has returned to the NCAA championship game for the first time since Billy Donovan’s Gators won back-to-back crowns in 2006-07. The sportsbooks favor Florida by 1 or 1.5 points while the predictive analytics (such as KenPom) suggest Houston should win by 1.
In other words, this one has all the earmarks of turning into the first NCAA title game that comes down to the last shot since Virginia and Texas Tech needed overtime to settle the 2019 championship.
“Big-picture goal is going to make them take tough twos, (then) fight like hell to get the rebound,” Golden said. “Every rebound we get is going to feel like we won the game, I feel like. If we can do a good job of keeping them off the boards, we’ll give ourselves a chance.”
THEY SAID IT
“I’m sure (Olajuwon) poured his heart and soul into this program, just like a lot of the guys that came before us. We’re standing on those guys’ shoulders, everyone who came before us. It would mean a lot to get this done. Not only for us, but for them.” –Cryer
–Field Level Media
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
The Lakers are on the brink of elimination — and Anthony Edwards is the biggest reason why
MINNEAPOLIS — Exhausted, weary and frustrated, the Los Angeles Lakers are on the brink.Elimination is staring them in the face, an unexpected development considering how well the LeBron James-Luka Dončić partnership has worked in a few short months.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementElimination is staring them in the face because they couldn’t manage to scrape out one win on the road against a Minnesota Timberwolves team we can no longer describe as immature and unserious.But most importantly, elimination is staring the Los Angeles Lakers in the face because Anthony Edwards pushed them there, because Edwards’ mental and physical stamina is greater than the two stars he stands across the way from.The Lakers faltered down the stretch in their 116-113 Game 4 loss to the Timberwolves Sunday afternoon, as Minnesota has taken a 3-1 lead and can eliminate the Lakers with a win at Crypto.com Arena […]
Devils’ Timo Meier, a controversial collision and the edge between reckless and ‘made for the playoffs’
NEWARK, N.J. — Two years ago, when the New Jersey Devils were in the midst of a seven-game series win against the New York Rangers, Igor Shesterkin joked that Timo Meier must watch a lot of MMA. The Devils forward had no qualms going hard at the Rangers’ goalie, at one point falling into his lap after a rush and drawing a roughing minor when Shesterkin whacked him with his blocker.AdvertisementMeier does not shy away from driving to the net, even if it means some contact with the most protected player on the ice. It’s a style NHL teams and their fans often applaud come the postseason, when goals are at a premium. New Jersey captain Nico Hischier hinted at as much when he called Meier “made for the playoffs.”But the style also has ramifications. And on Sunday in Game […]
NBA Playoffs: Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis hang on late to lift Celtics past Magic in Game 4
The Boston Celtics didn't make it easy, but they are now just a single game away from closing out their opening-round playoff series.The Celtics held on late to grab a 107-98 win over the Orlando Magic in Game 4 of their series on Sunday night at the Kia Center. That gave Boston a 3-1 series lead and will send it back home with the opportunity to close out the series at TD Garden on Tuesday night and keep its quest to defend last season's championship alive.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Magic kept things close for much of the night. They tried several times to mount a comeback, and nearly did so late in the fourth quarter, too. The Magic tied things up late in the final period after a huge Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 3-pointer and then a tip-in from Wendell Carter Jr. inside. It marked […]
Padres takeaways: Swept away, Xander Bogaerts’ power outage, bullpen flowers
SAN DIEGO — The Padres, once 11-0 at home, were swept at Petco Park on Sunday. A 4-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays gave San Diego its third consecutive defeat and its seventh in nine games. Here are three takeaways amid the Padres’ slide from the top of the standings.‘Somewhere in between’Padres manager Mike Shildt put it well late Sunday afternoon when asked to assess his team’s performance over the past two weeks. Since winning 14 of their first 17 games, the Padres have gone 3-8 while averaging 2.1 runs per game. Although the offense’s struggles are largely explained by the ongoing absences of Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth, the 30-inning scoreless streak that ended Saturday was the franchise’s longest since 1981.Advertisement“It’s not as easy as we made it look, and it’s not as hard as it […]
Yuri Alberto pede desculpas aos torcedores do Corinthians, mas afirma: “Não é hora de apontar culpados”
Yuri Alberto, jogador do Corinthians (Rodrigo Coca / Agência Corinthians) Neste domingo (27), o Corinthians foi facilmente superado pelo Flamengo, sofrendo uma goleada por 4 a 0, em confronto válido pela 6ª rodada do Campeonato Brasileiro. Artilheiro do time na temporada, Yuri Alberto reconheceu os méritos do adversário, pedindo desculpas aos torcedores alvinegros. Porém o camisa 9 declarou que o momento não é e “apontar culpados”. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE “Sabemos que hoje foi um dia difícil para todo mundo que veste essa camisa. O resultado dói, porque a gente trabalha muito para representar bem o Corinthians. O Flamengo teve méritos, começou forte e aproveitou as oportunidades que teve, enquanto nós não conseguimos encaixar nosso jogo. Não é hora de apontar culpados, é hora de assumir como grupo e trabalhar ainda mais. Peço desculpas à torcida, que sempre nos apoia, e que […]
Capitals fend off Canadiens, take 3-1 series lead: Takeaways
MONTREAL — It took an extra game, but the Washington Capitals cracked the code at Bell Centre, beating the Montreal Canadiens 5-2 and going up 3-1 in their first-round series.Now, the teams will head back to Washington for a potential elimination game on Tuesday night.The Capitals scored two third-period goals — a greasy one by Brandon Duhaime, then a slicker one from Andrew Mangiapane — to take the lead.AdvertisementWashington also got 16 saves from goalie Logan Thompson, who left Game 3 with an injury but recovered in time to return on Sunday night.Juraj Slafkovský and Cole Caufield scored Montreal’s goals, both on the power play in the second period.Playing the line chess gameOne of the main factors at play in Game 2’s 6-3 Montreal win was the utter lack of production from Washington’s top line; Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin and […]
Related
The Lakers are on the brink of elimination — and Anthony Edwards is the biggest reason why
MINNEAPOLIS — Exhausted, weary and frustrated, the Los Angeles Lakers are on the brink.Elimination is staring them in the face, an unexpected development considering how well the LeBron James-Luka Dončić partnership has worked in a few short months.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementElimination is staring them in the face because they couldn’t manage to scrape out one win on the road against a Minnesota Timberwolves team we can no longer describe as immature and unserious.But most importantly, elimination is staring the Los Angeles Lakers in the face because Anthony Edwards pushed them there, because Edwards’ mental and physical stamina is greater than the two stars he stands across the way from.The Lakers faltered down the stretch in their 116-113 Game 4 loss to the Timberwolves Sunday afternoon, as Minnesota has taken a 3-1 lead and can eliminate the Lakers with a win at Crypto.com Arena […]
Devils’ Timo Meier, a controversial collision and the edge between reckless and ‘made for the playoffs’
NEWARK, N.J. — Two years ago, when the New Jersey Devils were in the midst of a seven-game series win against the New York Rangers, Igor Shesterkin joked that Timo Meier must watch a lot of MMA. The Devils forward had no qualms going hard at the Rangers’ goalie, at one point falling into his lap after a rush and drawing a roughing minor when Shesterkin whacked him with his blocker.AdvertisementMeier does not shy away from driving to the net, even if it means some contact with the most protected player on the ice. It’s a style NHL teams and their fans often applaud come the postseason, when goals are at a premium. New Jersey captain Nico Hischier hinted at as much when he called Meier “made for the playoffs.”But the style also has ramifications. And on Sunday in Game […]
NBA Playoffs: Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis hang on late to lift Celtics past Magic in Game 4
The Boston Celtics didn't make it easy, but they are now just a single game away from closing out their opening-round playoff series.The Celtics held on late to grab a 107-98 win over the Orlando Magic in Game 4 of their series on Sunday night at the Kia Center. That gave Boston a 3-1 series lead and will send it back home with the opportunity to close out the series at TD Garden on Tuesday night and keep its quest to defend last season's championship alive.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Magic kept things close for much of the night. They tried several times to mount a comeback, and nearly did so late in the fourth quarter, too. The Magic tied things up late in the final period after a huge Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 3-pointer and then a tip-in from Wendell Carter Jr. inside. It marked […]
Padres takeaways: Swept away, Xander Bogaerts’ power outage, bullpen flowers
SAN DIEGO — The Padres, once 11-0 at home, were swept at Petco Park on Sunday. A 4-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays gave San Diego its third consecutive defeat and its seventh in nine games. Here are three takeaways amid the Padres’ slide from the top of the standings.‘Somewhere in between’Padres manager Mike Shildt put it well late Sunday afternoon when asked to assess his team’s performance over the past two weeks. Since winning 14 of their first 17 games, the Padres have gone 3-8 while averaging 2.1 runs per game. Although the offense’s struggles are largely explained by the ongoing absences of Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth, the 30-inning scoreless streak that ended Saturday was the franchise’s longest since 1981.Advertisement“It’s not as easy as we made it look, and it’s not as hard as it […]
Yuri Alberto pede desculpas aos torcedores do Corinthians, mas afirma: “Não é hora de apontar culpados”
Yuri Alberto, jogador do Corinthians (Rodrigo Coca / Agência Corinthians) Neste domingo (27), o Corinthians foi facilmente superado pelo Flamengo, sofrendo uma goleada por 4 a 0, em confronto válido pela 6ª rodada do Campeonato Brasileiro. Artilheiro do time na temporada, Yuri Alberto reconheceu os méritos do adversário, pedindo desculpas aos torcedores alvinegros. Porém o camisa 9 declarou que o momento não é e “apontar culpados”. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE “Sabemos que hoje foi um dia difícil para todo mundo que veste essa camisa. O resultado dói, porque a gente trabalha muito para representar bem o Corinthians. O Flamengo teve méritos, começou forte e aproveitou as oportunidades que teve, enquanto nós não conseguimos encaixar nosso jogo. Não é hora de apontar culpados, é hora de assumir como grupo e trabalhar ainda mais. Peço desculpas à torcida, que sempre nos apoia, e que […]
Capitals fend off Canadiens, take 3-1 series lead: Takeaways
MONTREAL — It took an extra game, but the Washington Capitals cracked the code at Bell Centre, beating the Montreal Canadiens 5-2 and going up 3-1 in their first-round series.Now, the teams will head back to Washington for a potential elimination game on Tuesday night.The Capitals scored two third-period goals — a greasy one by Brandon Duhaime, then a slicker one from Andrew Mangiapane — to take the lead.AdvertisementWashington also got 16 saves from goalie Logan Thompson, who left Game 3 with an injury but recovered in time to return on Sunday night.Juraj Slafkovský and Cole Caufield scored Montreal’s goals, both on the power play in the second period.Playing the line chess gameOne of the main factors at play in Game 2’s 6-3 Montreal win was the utter lack of production from Washington’s top line; Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin and […]
Be the first to leave a comment