Expert reveals 3 best NBA first basket predictions, bets, free picks for Friday, April 11: Kuzma, Morant, more

The Friday NBA schedule is the penultimate day of regular season action, and with all 30 teams are in action, all active players can be utilized in NBA prop bets for NBA first basket picks. Perhaps the most crucial of the day’s slate is Grizzlies vs. Nuggets (-6.5) at 9 p.m. ET since just one game separates the two teams in the NBA playoff picture. Neither Nikola Jokic nor Ja Morant played in the first two meetings between these teams, but they could be among the most targeted options in NBA prop bets. Jokic is at +440 at BetMGM Sportsbook to be the NBA first basket scorer, while Jaren Jackson Jr. (+575) actually has shorter NBA odds than Morant (+600).

SportsLine expert handicapper Jimmie Kaylor has broken down the NBA odds for every game on Friday and locked in three first basket scorer prop bets. Kaylor is a handicapper and DFS pro for SportsLine who won a DraftKings Millionaire contest in 2022 and also has multiple five-figure tournament wins on his DFS resume. Here are Kaylor’s top three first basket scorer bets for Friday.

Bam Adebayo (+500 at FanDuel) in Heat vs. Pelicans

The Pelicans average the fourth-fewest points in the first quarter of any NBA team, so that puts the focus on Miami players for first basket picks. Tyler Herro is an option, but he was highly criticized for poor shot selection late in Wednesday’s loss to Chicago, so he may be a bit hesitant to fire shots up right after the tip. With Andrew Wiggins still working his way back from injury, and scoring 16 or fewer in each of his last three games, Bam Adebayo appears to be the best option. It certainly doesn’t hurt that just one of his four games with 23-plus points on 64% shooting this season came earlier this year versus New Orleans.

“Adebayo has been one of the top first basket scorers in the NBA this season. The veteran center has scored the first basket in 15 games, and the Heat as a team have scored first in 40 games. Adebayo has taken the first shot for the Heat 21.1% of the time this season,” Kaylor revealed.

Ja Morant (+600 at FanDuel) in Grizzlies vs. Nuggets

Kaylor notes that Memphis has won the opening tip in 70% of its games this season. Plus, with Jamal Murray (hamstring) doubtful, even if Denver was to gain first possession, expect the Grizzlies to swarm Jokic from the jump, which would decrease his chances of scoring first. Memphis has three players averaging in between 19.2 and 23.2 points in Morant, Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, but Morant tops the team in first quarter points (6.2) and first quarter FGAs (4.8).

“Morant has been on a tear, averaging 32.5 points in his last four games. The former Murray State standout has made 48 starts this season and scored the first basket in eight games. Morant has attempted the first shot in 20.8% of the games he’s played in,” Kaylor said, with the best NBA odds for Morant coming at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kyle Kuzma (+850 at FanDuel) in Bucks vs. Pistons

Kuzma has found his shooting stroke and has knocked down at least 50% of his FGAs in three straight games. This is just the second time this season — and first with the Bucks — that he’s had this kind of streak over three games, and he also had one of his best performances of the season against Friday’s opponent in the Pistons. He shot 71.4% from the field, his third-highest mark of the season, en route to 22 points in his lone matchup versus Detroit earlier this year. 

“Kuzma has made 30 starts since joining the Bucks and has scored the first basket in five games,” said Kaylor. “Damian Lillard is out for the Bucks, and Kuzma has attempted the first shot in 22.6% of his games with Milwaukee. The Bucks have won the opening tip in 58.8% of their games and have connected on 44 first baskets as a team.”

Want more NBA picks for tonight?

You’ve seen an expert’s NBA prop picks for first basket scorer on Friday. Now, get NBA projections for every prop from the SportsLine model which is on a 155-115 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season.

You can also view more expert betting advice before making Friday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks, which includes an against-the-spread pick for the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday, from an expert who is 85-59-1 (+2003) over his last 145 NBA picks.

SportsLine has multiple experts who specialize in player props, including Prop Bet Guy Doug, who is 133-104 (+1357) over his last 237 player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Prop Bet Guy is including in his NBA player prop picks for Friday, which includes a play on Luka Doncic.