Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: Kevin Durant to the Celtics just makes sense]
Fact of Fiction: We solved the Western Conference standings
The Western Conference playoff picture is a more confounding landscape than the Grand Canyon.
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One game separates the Nos. 4 through 8 seeds. Depending on who wins what over the final two games of the season, there are, by my count, several million different ways the first-round playoff field can come into full view, and my math is definitely wrong. Even then only two first-round series will be determined.
A play-in tournament, featuring the Nos. 7 through 10 seeds, will dictate the other two. As a result, the first-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will not know who they face in the opening round for another week.
Make it make sense. Or let it play out. Outlining every scenario would be like pausing “Good Will Hunting” long enough for someone to solve the equation on the chalkboard. Are you here for entertainment or homework? Let us instead take you through the most likely, most petty and most entertaining scenarios.
The most likely scenarios
According to PlayoffStatus.com, these are the most likely first-round playoff scenarios in the West (with the understanding that the play-in tournament would still need to determine the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds) …
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (100%) vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies (55%)
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Season series: Thunder 4, Grizzlies 0
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The main event: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Ja Morant. Young superstars.
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The undercard: Chet Holmgren vs. Jaren Jackson Jr. Even younger co-stars.
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The pick: Thunder in five.
2. Houston Rockets (100%) vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors (32%)
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Season series: Warriors 3, Rockets 2
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The undercard: Draymond Green vs. Dillon Brooks. More beef than a fattened cattle.
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The pick: Warriors in seven.
3. Los Angeles Lakers (92%) vs. No. 6 Denver Nuggets (27%)
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Season series: Lakers 2, Nuggets 2
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The main event: Nikola Jokić vs. Luka Dončić. A Euro showdown.
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The undercard: LeBron James vs. a week-old coach. A supercomputer vs. an Apple Macintosh 128K.
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The pick: Lakers in seven.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (43%) vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers (39%)
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Season series: Timberwolves 3, Clippers 0
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The main event: Anthony Edwards vs. Kawhi Leonard. Youth vs. experience.
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The undercard: James Harden vs. a playoff atmosphere. The never-ending battle.
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The pick: Timberwolves in six.
The most petty scenarios
According to me, these are the most petty first-round playoff scenarios in the West (if, as has been proposed, though not seriously entertained, the top-three seeds could pick their initial opponent) …
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (100%) vs. 8. Los Angeles Clippers (4%)
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Season series: Thunder 4, Clippers 0
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The main event: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. his old team. Sorry, Clippers.
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The undercard: James Harden vs. OKC’s defense. An offensive genius in a swarm of hornets.
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The pick: Thunder in five.
2. Houston Rockets (100%) vs. 7. Memphis Grizzlies (18%)
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Season series: Rockets 3, Grizzlies 1
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The main event: Ja Morant vs. Amen Thompson. The Athleticism Bowl.
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The undercard: Dillon Brooks vs. his old team. Payback or a laughing attack.
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The pick: Rockets in six.
3. Los Angeles Lakers (92%) vs. 6. Los Angeles Clippers (17%)
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Season series: Lakers 3, Clippers 1
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The main event: L.A. vs. L.A. Bragging rights on the line.
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The undercard: LeBron James vs. Kawhi Leonard. A playoff three-match.
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The pick: Lakers in seven.
4. Denver Nuggets (23%) vs. 5. Minnesota Timberwolves (25%)
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Season series: Timberwolves 4, Nuggets 0
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The undercard: Jamal Murray vs. his knee. A showdown with championship ramifications.
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The pick: Timberwolves in seven.
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The most entertaining scenarios
According to me again, these are the most entertaining first-round playoff scenarios in the West …
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (100%) vs. 8. Denver Nuggets (9%)
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Season series: Thunder 2, Nuggets 2
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The main event: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Nikola Jokić. The MVP favorites, mano a mano.
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The undercard: Jalen Williams vs. Jamal Murray. Whose second option is more reliable?
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The pick: Thunder in six.
2. Houston Rockets (100%) vs. 7. Los Angeles Clippers (15%)
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Season series: Rockets 3, Clippers 1
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The main event: Amen Thompson vs. Kawhi Leonard. Looking into a mirror at your older self.
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The undercard: Steven Adams vs. Ivica Zubac. A heavyweight fight.
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The pick: Rockets in seven.
3. Los Angeles Lakers (92%) vs. 6. Golden State Warriors (21%)
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Season series: Lakers 3, Warriors 1
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The main event: LeBron James vs. Stephen Curry. The legends continue.
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The undercard: Luka Dončić vs. Jimmy Butler. A pair of trade deadline gifts.
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The pick: Warriors in seven.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (43%) vs. 5. Memphis Grizzlies (9%)
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Season series: Grizzlies 2, Timberwolves 1
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The main event: Ja Morant vs. Anthony Edwards. A highlight factory.
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The undercard: Julius Randle vs. the postseason. Advantage the postseason.
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The pick: Timberwolves in seven.
Determination: Fiction. We didn’t solve the Western Conference standings. But we made them more fun.
This news was originally published on this post .
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