NHL first-round playoff matchups: Projecting and analyzing the 8 series

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The NHL regular season ends on Thursday, so it’s getting late for those on the outside of the playoff picture. In the Eastern Conference, two teams remain in contention for one wild-card spot, while in the Western Conference, three teams remain in the running for the two wild-card spots.

The Columbus Blue Jackets and the Calgary Flames are the only teams not currently in playoff spots that haven’t been eliminated yet. The Blue Jackets are two points behind the Montreal Canadiens, with each team having two games remaining. The Flames, with two games left, are one point behind the St. Louis Blues and three points behind the St. Louis Blues, who each have one game left.

Meanwhile, more playoff series are beginning to take shape. Once again, we look at the standings and analyze the first round if it began today.

Eastern Conference

Washington Capitals (M1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (WC2)

The Capitals will enter the playoffs as the Eastern Conference’s best team. Meanwhile, the Canadiens continue to fight for their postseason spot. Montreal had chances to clinch against the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs, in games on Friday and Saturday, but lost both. But they still hold their own destiny. The door remains open, albeit slightly, for the Blue Jackets to run the table and somehow usurp the Canadiens to enter the playoffs.

Regardless of who steps into that second wild-card spot, they’ll trek to the American capital. Washington could use a jolt before they enter playoffs, as they’ve only won three times in their last 10 games, including back-to-back losses to Columbus this weekend.

Carolina Hurricanes (M2) vs. New Jersey Devils (M3)

This matchup is locked in. The Devils can’t catch the Hurricanes in the standings, and the Hurricanes can’t catch the Capitals. This matchup will be the sixth time these teams have met each other in the playoffs. Carolina has won the last four meetups, with the Devils’ sole series win coming during the 2000-01 season — the year they represented the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final against Colorado.

The underlying metrics love the Hurricanes at five-on-five, whether it’s through Corsi, expected goals or high-danger changes according to Natural Stat Trick. New Jersey, meanwhile, boasts a top-10 defense but is running a bit cold lately, with three consecutive losses, including a 7-2 loss to the Boston Bruins last week.

Toronto Maple Leafs (A1) vs. Ottawa Senators (WC1) 

It’s looking pretty likely that we’ll get this series, too. The Senators are locked into the first wild-card spot after Sunday’s overtime win over the Philadelphia Flyers. Toronto is locked into a top-two finish in the Atlantic Division, thanks to their overtime win over Montreal on Saturday night. If Toronto gets one more point, or the Lightning lose a point, then the Atlantic Division will belong to the Maple Leafs and they’ll host the Senators in a playoff series for the first time since 2004.

Senators owner Michael Andlauer has already said he’s ready for the Leafs. The Senators swept the Leafs in their regular-season series this year. But if you’ve followed the history of this rivalry in the playoffs, you know that only means little.

Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs. Florida Panthers (A3)

The Battle of Florida looks set in stone, too. Florida is guaranteed a top-three finish in the Atlantic Division after Ottawa won in overtime on Sunday. Meanwhile, as noted above, Tampa Bay still has a chance at the Atlantic Division crown despite being four points back with two games to play. The Panthers, meanwhile, can only finish as high as second in the division. This means home-ice advantage is still very much in play for either team.

Florida had home-ice advantage in each of its last three playoff encounters against Tampa Bay but won only once — in last year’s first-round matchup, en route to their first-ever Stanley Cup championship.

Western Conference

Winnipeg Jets (C1) vs. St. Louis Blues (WC2)

The Jets are the Presidents’ Trophy winners for the first time in their history and have assured themselves of home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. But who will enter the postseason in that second wild-card spot? Three teams still have a chance as of Monday morning.

St. Louis currently occupies that position, with the Minnesota Wild one point above them in the first wild-card spot. If both teams win their final games of the season on Tuesday night, St. Louis will remain second and meet Winnipeg in the first round. If either Minnesota or St. Louis lose Tuesday night, then the Calgary Flames can enter if they win out the rest of the way.

Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (C3)

The collision between these Western Conference powers has been projected for some time. That matchup was finalized on Saturday night. The biggest thing we’re wondering about between now and the end of the regular season is Colorado captain Gabriel Landeskog’s availability. The forward scored his first pro hockey goal in three years during a conditioning stint while playing with the Avs’ AHL affiliate, the Colorado Eagles, on Saturday. The Stars are locked in the Central Division’s second position as Colorado cannot catch them, and the Jets have already wrapped up the Central Division and the league’s best record.

Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs. Minnesota Wild (WC1) 

Vegas clinched its fourth division title in eight years on Saturday night with a win over the Nashville Predators. They’re locked into a matchup against the first wild-card team in the Western Conference. Thanks to an overtime win over Vancouver on Saturday, and St. Louis’s shootout loss to Seattle, the Wild are in that first wild-card position. A win on Tuesday would cement that spot for them, meaning that Marc-André Fleury’s final NHL postseason would begin in one of his previous stops along his likely Hall of Fame career.

Los Angeles Kings (P2) vs. Edmonton Oilers (P3)

For the fourth straight year, the Oilers and Kings will meet in the opening round of the playoffs. The Oilers have an outside chance at jumping the Kings for second in the Pacific Division, as they’re only four points behind with two games remaining. If Los Angeles gets home-ice advantage, they will lean on having the Western Conference’s best home record this year and the fact that they’ve taken two of three regular-season games against Edmonton so far. The teams will have a first-round dress rehearsal on Monday night in Edmonton.

(Photo of Mats Zuccarello, Brandon Saad and Marc-André Fleury: David Berding / Getty Images)

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