The Padres’ 15-4 start has been defined by these 5 numbers

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SAN DIEGO — The discourse about small samples will continue for at least a few more weeks. Still, for the San Diego Padres, it’s difficult to overstate the magnitude of a 15-4 start.

Among the previous eight teams to win at least 15 of their first 19 games, six ended up making the postseason. The 2003 Kansas City Royals, one of the two exceptions, opened their season with a $40 million payroll. The 2002 Seattle Mariners, the other exception, finished with 93 wins long before there were multiple wild cards in each league. Two of the teams that played into October — the 2018 Boston Red Sox and 2005 Chicago White Sox — won the World Series. And back in 1998, the Padres advanced to the Fall Classic after rushing out to an identical 15-4 record.

At the risk of over-extrapolating, let’s examine how the 2025 Padres have built such an advantageous cushion. Here are five numbers that have defined their best-in-baseball start:

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 11.3 percent strikeout rate

Tatis entered this season with a 25 percent career strikeout rate, an acceptable number for one of the sport’s better power hitters. Through 18 appearances, the right fielder is chasing pitches as often as ever (29.2 percent entering Wednesday), but he has more than halved his strikeout rate. That percentage puts him 12th among qualifying major leaguers (one spot behind Cleveland’s Steven Kwan). And Tatis has not sacrificed any power; with a .646 slugging percentage and six home runs, he’s an early contender for National League Most Valuable Player.

“He is accepting the walks that they’re going to give him, because he’s a dangerous human being,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said. “(That) means he’s getting more pitches to hit, and he’s doing more damage.”

Wednesday’s 4-2 win against the Chicago Cubs provided a few examples. In the bottom of the third, Tatis took a first-pitch fastball over the plate the other way for an RBI infield single. Two innings later, he got a 3-1 changeup in the strike zone, made contact and again leveraged his speed, reaching on an error. Finally, with the bases loaded and the Padres nursing a one-run lead in the eighth, Tatis drew a 10-pitch walk after fouling off a couple of close pitches and then displaying admirable patience.

Fernando to tie, Manny to take the lead! pic.twitter.com/rFtelDAYRy

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) April 16, 2025

In two-strike counts this season, Tatis, who has opened up his batting stance, mostly eliminated his leg kick and consistently employed a two-handed finish to his swing, is hitting .269 (7-for-26) with three home runs and five walks. He has struck out only nine times. While his overall chase rate is about the same as it’s always been, his chase rate against breaking pitches has plummeted, at least in the early going.

“I do think there’s some aggression there early in the count that we want to remain,” Shildt said. “But I do think it’s a very deliberate — ‘I’m going to make sure that I’m going to be in the strike zone with two strikes.’ And if he does that, you’re going to see what you’re seeing all year.”

A 1.30 ERA at home by the Padres’ pitching staff

Facing the Colorado Rockies certainly helped. Still, the Padres became the first team in major league history to throw six shutouts in their first 10 home games of a season.

Pitchers off to a stellar start at Petco Park include newcomer Nick Pivetta (20 innings, 0.45 ERA), Michael King (16 2/3 innings, 1.62 ERA), Jeremiah Estrada (7 1/3 innings, one hit) and Robert Suarez (0.00 ERA, 5-for-5 in save opportunities). No member of the staff has an ERA higher than 3.31 in downtown San Diego. Despite a top-heavy lineup, and largely thanks to their pitching, the Padres were just the sixth team in major league history to start 11-0 at home. It seems fitting that pitching coach Ruben Niebla hails from nearby Imperial Valley. While Pivetta is proving to be a strong addition, retaining Niebla with a multi-year contract may have been as big as any offseason move.

Manny Machado’s 6 stolen bases

No, the 32-year-old third baseman won’t finish with 50 steals — his career high, set a decade ago, is 20 — but Machado’s opportunism on the basepaths is representative of a team that has applied constant pressure on opponents.

After finishing 14th in the majors last season in total stolen bases, the Padres rank fourth with 24th steals. They have been caught stealing only three times. Tatis, now playing with a healthy right leg, has six steals of his own, but seven other players have at least one. The Padres should regain more team speed with the eventual returns of Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth and Brandon Lockridge, although each member of that trio appears to be a ways away.

Yuki Matsui’s 50 percent strikeout rate

The league’s most diminutive reliever is running an outsized small-sample strikeout rate — and helping the Padres make up for the departure of All-Star left-hander Tanner Scott. There are more obvious standouts — starting with high-leverage pitchers Suarez, Estrada and Jason Adam — but Matsui and an apparently rejuvenated Wandy Peralta are among those contributing quality middle relief for a bullpen that leads the majors with a 1.52 ERA.

One key to San Diego’s success on the mound: Pivetta, Matsui and Estrada are among the majors’ top six pitchers by induced vertical break. In other words, their four-seam fastballs display an unusual amount of ride.

A .274 batting average by the offense

This isn’t a surprise. More of a continuation of last season, really — the contact-driven Padres finished atop the majors with a .263 average. Their current mark ranks second, behind the St. Louis Cardinals. Meanwhile, San Diego is second in on-base percentage and seventh in slugging percentage.

(Photo of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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