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The UEFA Champions League quarter-finals are in the books and we have our four semi-finalists: Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal and Inter. It speaks to the quality of Europe’s top order right now that all four teams can be considered legitimate contenders for the trophy.
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Let’s analyse how the bookmakers are sizing up each of their chances, and assess how the odds have moved along the way.
Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain remain joint-favourites at 2/1
Barcelona and PSG were handed quarter-final ties against Borussia Dortmund and Aston Villa, respectively, that they were expected to win. They did so – but not without a few frights along the way.
Both made light work of the first home legs; Barça racked up a commanding 4-0 lead, and Les Parisiens passed their way to a 3-1 win, scoring what felt like the crucial, killer goal in stoppage time.
But in the second legs, both briefly peered into the darkest timeline, as BVB’s Serhou Guirassy scored a hat-trick to pile the pressure on the Catalans, while Villa scored three to put PSG right on the edge. “I don’t think my team has been so dominated by another team in that way,” remarked Luis Enrique after the game, breathing a sigh of relief to be home and dry.
The two were joint-favourites to win the tournament at 10/3 coming into the quarter-finals, ahead of Real Madrid who were priced at 4/1. Now, their odds have shrunk to 2/1, in line with the fact that they’re one step closer and there are only four remaining teams in the competition.
Perhaps if just one of these teams had breezed through their quarter-final matchup, we’d see them listed as the outright favourite now. But given both wobbled pretty violently, the bookmakers have kept them at level pegging.
That feels fair, as most observers would suggest they’re the best two teams left in it and the on-paper favourites to win their respective semi-final ties. Additionally, they couldn’t possibly guess who would emerge as the victor in the final should they meet. They are so similar – their high-possession, high-pressing tactical systems are truly reminiscent of each other – that they’re quite difficult to split.
Arsenal closing in at 11/4
PSG and Barcelona’s joint-favourite price of 2/1 draws the eye, but Arsenal really aren’t far back at 11/4. They’ve come in from a position of 7/1 ahead of the quarter-finals, with the bookmakers offering them a dollop of respect after their 5-1 aggregate demolition of Real Madrid.
While this was hardly a vintage version of Los Blancos – they looked downright dysfunctional, actually – it was still a 180-minute performance that should imbue the Gunners with confidence. After all, if you successfully limit Vinícius Jr. and Kylian Mbappé to practically nothing while shredding Antonio Rüdiger and Aurélien Tchouaméni on the counter-attack, what can’t you do?
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Arsenal now face PSG, who they beat 2-0 in October in the league phase – although that was before the French outfit had truly flourished into the season. But Mikel Arteta’s men have also grown into this competition, and will defend deeper than Villa did in Paris, before threatening with just as much attacking gusto at home.
Inter the ‘outsiders’ at 9/2
Inter have been a consistent afterthought for the bookmakers in this competition. They were as long as 14/1 ahead of the Round of 16, shrunk to 10/1 ahead of the quarter-finals, and are now effectively 4.5/1 ahead of the semi-finals.
As José Mourinho – a former treble-winning Inter manager, fittingly – would say: “Respect, respect?”
The Italian giants finished in the top eight in the league phase, conceding just one goal in the process, and proceeded to let in just four more during the knockouts. In Lautaro Martínez, they have a star difference-maker in attack, in Simone Inzaghi one of the most quietly accomplished managers in the world, and in San Siro one of the most raucous stadiums. It’s a potent mix.
The Athletic’s Brett Koremenos explored their viability as a value bet back in early March, and they’ve not put a foot wrong since. It’s crunch time for that theory as Barcelona loom next. But the fact the Nerazzurri boast such experience and defensive solidity, in addition to a huge threat from set pieces, makes them more than a match for La Blaugrana should things fall their way.
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(Photo of Raphinha: Pedro Salado / Getty Images)
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