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There’s no Premier League title race and barely any hint of a relegation scrap. But the battle for a top-five berth – and with it a coveted UEFA Champions League spot – is keeping us warm and cosy at this late stage of the season.
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These last few weeks have seen seven competing teams reduced to about five for the final three spots, as for the first time in months, every side has played the same number of games (32), meaning we can get a clear read on the standings.
This is your weekly top five stock report, assessing the changing odds of those vying for the only remaining glory the league table has to offer.
Newcastle United (1/20)
Last week: 2/5
Two smashing victories against Manchester United (4-1) and Crystal Palace (5-0) have lifted Newcastle into third place.
They’ve won their last five league games and used their 2-1 Carabao Cup final victory over Liverpool as a springboard to get even better. Star striker Alexander Isak is in form, winger Jacob Murphy (three goals, three assists in his last four matches) is playing like a man possessed, and Sandro Tonali is dominating in midfield.
We’re at the point where Newcastle are looking up, not down. Whether they finish in the top five doesn’t even feel like the right question. The more pertinent one is: Can they overhaul Arsenal for second?
They’re priced as 11/1 longshots to do so, but they’re only four points off the Gunners, who will continue to save their best for Champions League nights following progression past Real Madrid in the quarter-finals.
Stock tip: Top five has sailed. But 11/1 for a top-two finish? Interesting…
Manchester City (1/10)
Last week: 2/9
Man City roared back from 2-0 down to win 5-2 against Crystal Palace last weekend. The performance did not feel particularly convincing – the early stages were downright terrible, actually – but at this stage, a win’s a win.
The bookmakers clearly expect them to continue doing enough to land a top-five place, but this next run of fixtures looks tricky for the Citizens. Everton away has been the downfall of several good sides lately, and Aston Villa at home is downright difficult.
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They are nestled in fifth for now, but if this next week goes badly, the picture could quickly change.
Stock tip: Priced as a sure bet, but it’s anything but.
Nottingham Forest (1/2)
Last week: 1/8
Time to panic?
Nottingham Forest are now in unfamiliar territory – and no, we don’t still mean the top five! For the first time since matchday 18, the Tricky Trees have dropped out of the top three following back-to-back losses against Villa and Everton.
This loss of form has coincided with a couple of key injuries – 18-goal Chris Wood and ironman candidate Ola Aina – that Nuno Espírito Santo has struggled to recalibrate around. Wood returned for the Toffees tie but could not score, and Forest couldn’t even hold on for a point.
It’s remarkable how quickly things change in football. Just two weeks ago, the Garibaldis beat Manchester United at home and midfielder Ryan Yates was trying his utmost to play down the idea that Champions League football had been “secured” in the post-match interview.
Now the odds are slipping fast. Forest have to win against Tottenham Hotspur on Monday, or they could be sixth by Tuesday.
Stock tip: Fallen into buy-low range, but with no guarantee it rises back up.
Chelsea (1/1)
Last week: 8/15
Drawing at home to Ipswich Town, off the back of a drab 0-0 tie with Brentford, is disastrous stuff for Chelsea. At a time where several others are putting forward strong top-five credentials, the Blues are doing the complete opposite.
Their schedule continues to be muddled by the Europa Conference League, which they must take increasingly seriously as the calibre of opponents increase. Enzo Maresca has called upon the fans to have patience with his style of play – we’re in mid-April! There shouldn’t still be questions over this!
Overall, the signs look bad for Chelsea. The goals have dried up, they can’t win away from home, have difficult league fixtures remaining (derby away to Fulham, Liverpool, Newcastle and Forest) and midweek commitments to balance.
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Stock tip: Avoid, avoid, avoid!
Aston Villa (7/2)
Last week: 6/1
Now, this looks like value.
Villa look like one of the strongest sides in the league right now and have come steaming up the table thanks to an incredible run of results. They’ve won nine of their last 10 games in all competitions – the one they didn’t was away to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League quarter-final – and beaten Brighton and Forest to launch themselves right into the thick of this race.
Unlike many other teams searching for rhythm and momentum, the Villans have it. Unai Emery has rotated his squad brilliantly to deal with the demands of playing in three competitions deep into the season. January signings Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio have had a huge impact, too.
If Villa beat Newcastle and/or Man City in the next seven days, that 7/2 price will be long gone.
Stock tip: Ride the wave.
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(Photo of Sandro Tonali: George Wood / Getty Images)
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